Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Just saw this VIN. Really looks like they will be all over the place in this quarter and we have no idea how many cars between 160000-170000 actually have been build so far and how many are inventory (and then later sold) and how many are going directly to customers.

2016-11-04 18_45_08-Model S 60 5YJSA7E19GF170255 _ Tesla France.png
 
I had to make a call to let them know I had purchased shares of Solar City, and I wanted them to be lent out.

It is not automatic.
That does not match my experience: I've had shares (SCTY and TSLA, newly acquired as well as older shares) come in and out of lending over the past month without any action on my part. And currently, all of my SCTY shares are lent out but only 16% of my TSLA shares are on loan.
 
The big question for me right now is "when does the first big wave of shorts start leaving TSLA?" Are they going to wait until after the election, hoping a Trump victory depresses TSLA? It's possible, but with HRC showing better in a poll today and maintaining a sizable lead in electoral college numbers, that seems to be a longshot. A more reasonable plan would be a slow covering in these days leading up to the election, when fear of the unknown has depressed the broader markets, but shorts have not been known to be reasonable. Instead, we see doubling-down as TSLA flirts with the edge of the technical triangle. The problem is that ammo is low and sentiment about TSLA is now turning more positive. Closing in the 190s on a Friday would bode well for a green Monday, and the first hour of trading on Monday could induce another vertical climb of TSLA. Only the Tuesday election stands in the way of a nice recovery and weekend news about the election will likely determine Monday morning opening's action.

Think about it: the question about whether the SCTY merger will go through is now in the rearview mirror. ISS just gave a thumbs up to the merger from both viewpoints, and this is huge. Shorts are not going to disrupt the marriage, even with selling pressure placed on both companies.

Recent statements by Musk that SCTY should be cashflow neutral in Q4 and throughout 2017 and then generate $500 million cash over the next three years pretty much sinks the Chanos argument that TSLA with SCTY is going to bleed to death. The only things giving shorts a boost right now is a hope that HRC gets defeated (and causes a market selloff) and a hope that TSLA stock price stays low so that no equity raise is done. My guess is that HRC will win, TSLA will enjoy a post-election rally, and this may be a big jumping off point for shorts. The other possibility I see is that Q4 ER delivers good profits, Tesla raises some equity shortly thereafter, and the shorts depart in huge numbers then. The longer they wait to jump ship, the bigger the move for TSLA when it happens.

Caution: A further development such as a particularly damaging wikileaks post could change everything in the short term (but not the long term). Nothing is set in stone.
 
Last edited:
  • Love
Reactions: arondaniel
When it comes to the P100D, I suspect the low-end acceleration won't be improved. It's already pretty much limited by traction up to 60 mph. That leaves three possible improvements, IMHO:

1. Improved acceleration at high speed.
2. Improved top speed.
3. Improved cooling, pushing power limit further out in time at the track.

Number 1 and 2 are likely the ones that are easiest to implement. The P100D may have a different gear ratio on the fixed reduction gear, reducing torque at lower speeds (where it's limited by traction anyway) while increasing torque at higher speeds. A different gearing ratio means the top speed can be higher without the motor disintegrating.
 
If memory serves, just before getting banned, TMC's very own @valuationmatters posted a Dr. Evil sounding message about how he would keep coming back to TMC under different user names (cue crazed cackling)....

So this is what passes for a CFO in today's oil industry? He wouldn't go to all this trouble unless he saw Tesla as a threat.

As the saying goes, "dogs don't bark at tombstones."
 
  • Like
Reactions: madodel
I wonder what the full-performance of P100D is... Perhaps its enough to crown the quickest production car list (P100D is currently tied for 3rd with the Bugatti Veyron, behind LaFerrari and Porsche 918 Spyder). Maximum Plaid?
If "it is not actually left-handed" is a hint, I'm thinking "Inconceivable Speed"
- Perfect name to dismiss haters when MS E.V. bests 918 in 0-60. :)

Well fellas, today's shaping up to be a good day.
 
Well, why didn't they fold from the start then?

1) They wanted a 5 star crash rating for Second Row passengers.

2) Folding seats pass Fed Safety regulations but my guess is Tesla will not resubmit for 5 seat MX for testing to NHSTA nor IHS.

3) It did not cost them a single sale as Model X is production constrained.

4) The original seats, though less functional, are much much better looking.
 
  • Like
Reactions: madodel
Status
Not open for further replies.