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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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And let's not leave out our very own @bonairevolt's prediction in a tweet to Spiegel that deliveries in Q1 2017 will be less than 19K "for sure." IF Tesla somehow manages 21,500 deliveries in Q4 that is.


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Definitely some "pie" quarters coming up for smiegal and bonairevolt.'s :).
 
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And let's not leave out our very own @bonairevolt's prediction in a tweet to Spiegel that deliveries in Q1 2017 will be less than 19K "for sure." IF Tesla somehow manages 21,500 deliveries in Q4 that is.

I see these predictions from Spiegel and Bonaire and keep wondering "what do they know that we don't?". And then I realize the answer is ... nothing!
 
Noting Fremont factory tours this week. Thought Tesla was closed last eight days of December. Not sure why the change in plans and not sure what this means for Q4 production and delivery numbers.
I believe it is because the order book is almost full for Q1. European website is quoting April delivery for S/X and U.S. is quoting late March. I have seen no indication that they are delivering cars to California that were ordered in December like they had to do in prior quarters.
 
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I really wish the headline for this was "...event for some investors next week" since it isn't for all investors. Right? Not all, right? Cuz I sure as hell am an investor for over four years and didn't get an invite.

yup. it would be nice if this was presented as a webcast for everyone. those investing hundreds of millions would get the privilege of being there live, but all of us would be privilege to the same information. not saying Tesla is doing something uncommon, but, I'm not a fan of this "playing the game" stuff.
 
5,260 cars in a month? Tesla should be able to do that no problem with a factory running at >2k/wk, even if they shutdown for a week.

If that number is real, then pie part 2 confirmed, we're making guidance.

If that number is anywhere near real, then we have a Yuge (Bigly ?) beat in Q4.
We had roughly 55K by the end of Q3, so near 75K at end of Nov would mean 20K delivered in 2 months and we know from the geographical batching the last month is always much stronger than the previous two in the quarter. Therefore, that number would mean well over 10K for December, so >85K total, quiet possibly close to 90K.

ps: I am not saying I expect 85K-90K deliveries for the year, just interpreting what the 75K by end of November would imply...
 
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Not sure their calculation method but a data point from Automotive News: 74,740 total cars at end of 11 months...

My read is that it's just the production numbers, not deliveries. In which case, 74.7k + ~10k (2.4k * 5 weeks - minus holidays) produced in Dec sounds "inline with guidance" (79k 2016 deliveries + 5k in the pipeline)
 
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I can also confirm that the factory does shutdown on Monday Dec 26. I stayed at the test drive lobby until 6 pm and heard a guide of factory tour.

Also want to ask should I go for Model X 90d and let my wife angry for a year , instead of the 75d? I have to change before Jan 3rd.
Go for the 90d. Happiness is overrated.
 
I can also confirm that the factory does shutdown on Monday Dec 26. I stayed at the test drive lobby until 6 pm and heard a guide of factory tour.

Also want to ask should I go for Model X 90d and let my wife angry for a year , instead of the 75d? I have to change before Jan 3rd.

I have never heard someone in retrospect say 'I should have gone for the smaller battery' but I have certainly heard the opposite
 
I have never heard someone in retrospect say 'I should have gone for the smaller battery' but I have certainly heard the opposite
Sorry for spamming, but the reason I keep asking was because I
If you keep the smaller battery to please your wife, you earn the right to ask your wife not to complain about a few extra supercharger stops and a slightly slower supercharging time. It might be worth it to stay "small".
But in that case she will say "I told you to buy an ICE car not a Tesla. Now we have to stay here for another 20 min. I will not have another trip with you."
 
If you keep the smaller battery to please your wife, you earn the right to ask your wife not to complain about a few extra supercharger stops and a slightly slower supercharging time. It might be worth it to stay "small".

I suppose in some alternate universe the relationship between a man and his wife works exactly that way.
 
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