Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

[SebastianR]

The Battery Will Kill Fossil Fuels—It's Only a Matter of Time

Batteries are allowed in the US to compete with traditional power plants as of 2020.

 

[jhm]

Saudis remark today that the Aramco IPO is even money to float on only their domestic market.

Does this mean they are unwilling to comply with security and exchange laws (and the reporting standards that entails) in any country but their own? Why does this not give me any confidence as an investor?

 

[adiggs]

Does this mean they are unwilling to comply with security and exchange laws (and the reporting standards that entails) in any country but their own? Why does this not give me any confidence as an investor?

That's sort of what it sounds like to me, and I can't say I'm all that surprised.

Whether they can get investors to bring their money to their stock exchange will be an interesting experiment to view from a distance (at least on my part).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I would imagine that's at least half the problem. This trainwreck of an IPO is the pivot for global oil markets. When it's past, no matter what happens, we should see things come unhinged for good.

Saudis holding back literally all non-US production comes to an end within 12 months. No way they can justify shale taking all incremental share while the clock is ticking so loud in the background.

We should see a flood of oil in 2019 then perhaps a moment of shortages before the end.

 

[Reciprocity]

Does this mean they are unwilling to comply with security and exchange laws (and the reporting standards that entails) in any country but their own? Why does this not give me any confidence as an investor?

I really go they go public in the US. It will make it easier to short.

 

[RobStark]

The Battery Will Kill Fossil Fuels—It's Only a Matter of Time

“Batteries are like bacon,” Vibhu Kaushik, director of grid technology and modernization at utility Southern California Edison, said at CERAWeek. “They just make everything better.”


The Brattle Group has estimated that the energy commission’s recent ruling could help unleash as much as 50 gigawatts of battery-stored power into U.S. markets, enough to light up 6 million homes. Over the next five years, growth in energy storage will be “more exponential, than linear,” said Alexandra Goodson, who works for the battery maker Saft.

 

[jhm]

I would imagine that's at least half the problem. This trainwreck of an IPO is the pivot for global oil markets. When it's past, no matter what happens, we should see things come unhinged for good.

Saudis holding back literally all non-US production comes to an end within 12 months. No way they can justify shale taking all incremental share while the clock is ticking so loud in the background.

We should see a flood of oil in 2019 then perhaps a moment of shortages before the end.

The Saudis will have to wake up to the fact that their 60 year oil reserve is only worth what they can produce within the next 10 years. They've been trying so hard to push the idea that oil won't peak for the next 25 years. I fear they may actually believe it! But even a peak that is 25 year out means that they only need half of their reserves. They are siting on massive stranded assets and inhaling the last fumes of denial. But after IPO could be a rude awakening.

I wish they would just get on with it already.

 

[jhm]

“Batteries are like bacon,” Vibhu Kaushik, director of grid technology and modernization at utility Southern California Edison, said at CERAWeek. “They just make everything better.”


The Brattle Group has estimated that the energy commission’s recent ruling could help unleash as much as 50 gigawatts of battery-stored power into U.S. markets, enough to light up 6 million homes. Over the next five years, growth in energy storage will be “more exponential, than linear,” said Alexandra Goodson, who works for the battery maker Saft.

I like this quote, in spite of the ignorance of electrical energy units.

“‘We’re reaching an inflection point,” said Steve Westly, founder of sustainability venture-capital firm Westly Group and former controller and chief fiscal officer for the state of California. “In the future, people will talk about energy in terms of kilowatts per hour instead of oil per barrels.”

I believe he meant we'll be talking in gigawatts rather than barrels per day. Or as I like to put it, this is all about batteries versus barrels.

 

[generalenthu]

Michael Liebreich strikes again with a fantastic article on deep decarbonization.

Liebreich: Beyond Three Thirds, The Road to Deep Decarbonization | Bloomberg New Energy Finance

 

[jhm]

THUD! The Sound of Truth

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So US crude supplies are up 5M barrels this week. Five weeks of gains in a row on top of an unprecedented supply glut. Brent is flat/up. What's up with that?

Are we really saying OPEC can claim a 1.8Mbpd rise in 2018 and that can hold up prices? Brent by all rational measurement should be well below 50.

 

[RobStark]

South Australia is having an election March 17 that could throw a monkey wrench into deep decarbonization plans.

Musk's BFF Jay Weatherhill's Labor is down 2% in latest poll.

Xenophon's SA-BEST slumps in a South Australian Newspoll, while Turnbull's better PM lead narrows

Labor holding onto hope as Antony Green predicts Liberal government in SA

Liberals to win South Australian election as Labor claims victory in Batman byelection – live

 

[dc_h]

please visit a 3rd world country and then review what you think their options are. The choice is more like $10k for a used 3 year old toyota camry, or $10k for a natively produced electric called the Ankor EV. Germany is working on the TUM electric truck for Africa - under 10k Euros.

I would think electrick tuk tuks would be good options for developing economies. Work in crowded areas and can be built in the 5-10k range.

 

[dc_h]

Labor holding onto hope as Antony Green predicts Liberal government in SA

Liberals to win South Australian election as Labor claims victory in Batman byelection – live

Will this be the end of gov't sponsored projects in SA? Probably yes. I don't think it will end of Power Wall projects and smaller commercial projects. How big an impact on solar and wind? Can they now compete against coal and gas without either side being subsidized? Will liberals subsidize coal and gas, or put restrictions on new solar and wind?

 

[RobStark]

Will this be the end of gov't sponsored projects in SA? Probably yes. I don't think it will end of Power Wall projects and smaller commercial projects. How big an impact on solar and wind? Can they now compete against coal and gas without either side being subsidized? Will liberals subsidize coal and gas, or put restrictions on new solar and wind?

SA Liberal Leader Steven Marshall says he supports BES but does not support government support/involvement in Tesla's Virtual Power Plant.

Outside of that I don't think it is clear but I have not followed SA politics very closely.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Saudi Aramco seeks majority stake in Indian refinery: Economic Times

Top Exxon executive confirms Gulf Coast oil-refining expansion

It does not look like key oil players believe Peak Oil Demand theories. I do not either.

 

[mspohr]

Saudi Aramco seeks majority stake in Indian refinery: Economic Times

Top Exxon executive confirms Gulf Coast oil-refining expansion

It does not look like key oil players believe Peak Oil Demand theories. I do not either.

Just like climate change, it doesn't matter whether you believe in it or don't believe in it. It will happen.

 

[mspohr]

Ban new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, not 2040, says thinktank
Ban new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, not 2040, says thinktank

Earlier action would also ease the UK’s reliance on oil imports at a time when oil and gas production from the North Sea is declining. Imports would be cut by nearly 50% by 2035, saving up to an estimated £6.63bn each year, the thinktank said.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Just like climate change, it doesn't matter whether you believe in it or don't believe in it. It will happen.

No offense, but folks in California really need to get out and explore the rest of the world... visit China, India, and many countries in Africa.

Until Tesla is producing tens of millions of cars annually, any talk of Peak Oil Demand is too soon.

 

[mspohr]

No offense, but folks in California really need to get out and explore the rest of the world... visit China, India, and many countries in Africa.

Until Tesla is producing tens of millions of cars annually, any talk of Peak Oil Demand is too soon.

When you disparage a group, you show your ignorance and do cause offense.

I have been to all of those places. I've also noted that every automaker will be building electric cars. The value proposition of EVs is the same in Africa as in the rest of the world.