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The oil industry faces a basic problem. If the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, surpassed $100 a barrel, about 90% of the world’s oil could be extracted with a return on capital of at least 10%, according to Rystad Energy, an energy-research firm. Today Brent fetches just over $40 a barrel, making about half the world’s oil reserves too costly to produce (see chart 1). Oil prices are expected to rebound as post-pandemic demand picks up, but by how much is fiercely debated.
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As firms seek winning projects, many are struggling to offload mediocre ones. BP is the sole supermajor to meet its divestment target, of $15bn—in part thanks to the decision in June to sell its petrochemicals unit, a business that rivals view as having brighter prospects than drilling. Rystad reckons reserves equivalent to 12.5bn barrels of oil were for sale in June, excluding shale and oil sands. Of that, the majors accounted for over two-thirds of liquids like oil and propane, and half the gas.
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[...] Chevron is trying to sell its stake in offshore blocks in Nigeria, which it first attempted to sell five years ago. Sellers are sweetening deals. In May Total announced a loan similar to the one BP extended to Hilcorp, to help close the sale of its North Sea fields to a PE-backed company called NEO Energy. In May Shell said it would sell its gas assets and pipelines in Pennsylvania to National Fuel Gas Company, a regional business. Wood Mackenzie reckons that the $541m transaction implied a fair value for Shell’s producing gasfields but valued the company’s undeveloped gas acreage at close to nothing.
Some acquirers will emerge for the same reasons others stay away: the transition to cleaner energy is uncertain and markets will remain volatile for a while. Opportunistic buyers may purchase resources as they would an option, which could pay out if demand picks up and prices rise. It is a credible strategy, but a risky one. In recent months Saudi Arabia has shown it can unleash millions of barrels of crude to win market share. “Companies will be able to find buyers for difficult resources,” says Per Magnus Nysveen of Rystad. “It’s all a question of the price.” Right now, buyers drive a hard bargain.