That's fair, so long as we're agreeing with the Nikola position that BEV is better for shorter routes and it's either diesel or hydrogen for longer ones.
I'm not sure I agree with this. I don't know a lot about hydrogen filling stations, but in my mind I imagine that it's a lot easier to store 20 or 50 truckloads of hydrogen than it is to store 20 or 50 truckloads of electricity. That is, if you buy all your power overnight and convert it to hydrogen, you can have a full day's worth of hydrogen sitting around in a big tank waiting for trucks to arrive. But if you buy all your power overnight (or generate with solar or whatever) and store it for a day's worth of BEVs, you'd need a titanic amount of battery at the station. Is that cost-effective?
I wonder how many solar-panel-square-feet * hours-of-sunshine are needed to complete one semi charge? Is generating and storing solar even in the picture here? Or are we just talking about buying at low rates from the utility?
Also, Trevor claimed in one interview (perhaps the Tesla Daily one) that by putting the hydrogen stations on certain highways he'd have access to lower-cost electricity in some other way -- from a federal backbone or something. I clearly have no idea what he was talking about, but is there any truth to the claim that by selecting your station locations correctly you can access cheaper power even within the same general area?
If Nikola is doing stuff where they claim they'll have access to cheap electricity in order to accomplish something (electrolysis to make hydrogen), then Tesla will have access to the same sources of cheap electricity.
And Tesla will be providing 90% efficient use of that electricity where Nikola will be providing 30% efficient use of that electricity (round #s for simplicity).
In this case, the only vector I see where Nikola can win is a theoretical combination of filling speed (has to be >3x to match recharge) and quantity of energy that can be carried along (longer range, fewer recharging stops) that also needs to be >3x just to break even. Hydrogen starts a long ways back in this 'race'.
Doesn't mean it can't catch up.
EDIT: My post and
@jhm crossed (I was in a meeting and came back to this
). Similar ideas about the efficiency, but when in doubt - go with his over mine (I'm more directional - he's also directional while also being way more precise / accurate)
The vector around hydrogen being used as a fuel in random vehicles on the road that I am most personally concerned with, is that hydrogen is about the most flammable and powerful explosive stuff around. We've got lots of equipment, processes, and knowledge on how to handle hydrogen in static situations (such as fueling stations!). In mobile applications though, I don't see it. It's probably ok in newer vehicles that are well maintained and haven't had time to break down.
As vehicles get older though? I guess this could be good for manufacturers - planned and rapid obsolescence.
We're accustomed to driving around in gas cars that catch on fire and burn down to the frame on the side of the road. It happens often enough that it mostly doesn't make the news, even in an environment where 'if it bleeds, it leads'.
Hydrogen will be different. On the plus side, the safety systems are robust and among other things, they are designed to bleed off hydrogen "up", frequently in the form of a VERY hot jet of fire (which is mostly a good choice, but if the vehicles has been turned over or on its side...). I figure the typical car-car collision will end this way, given that the hydrogen tank is breached at all.
But rarely (much more rarely than with gasoline), a bad situation will come together and the 5kg hydrogen bomb will go off. This isn't a "gee that was pretty" or fireworks type of explosion. Think shattered glass a km away, and maybe a small hole in the ground, with bits and pieces of the car flying all over. Or if you're a terrorist, you've got something way better than fertilizer to work with (just got to get around the safety systems so you can get the bottle of hydrogen to blow up rather than burn off).
So electrolysis to create hydrogen with spare / cheap electricity, to store and run the other direction later when electricity is needed (as bad as the round trip efficiency is), as well as other industrial uses for hydrogen - I'm all there. Hydrogen in mobile / on-the-road applications, I'd rather not.