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Should I be concerned?

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I really need to link a disclaimer when I write these things. I'll summarise: Stats (and nearly any other online service, including the official Tesla smartphone app) can be a very bad estimator of 100% capacity. Your charging and usage habits would need to be known to know if it was accurate-ish. Charging to 100% will be the only true indicator of your 100% capacity, if you read it from the car's screen and not the app.

Anyhow. Assuming you're doing "ideal" things (which is a huge assumption), this honestly looks similar to the beginning of graphs that folks had before a warranty battery replacement.

I find the jump around 500mi weird though. What model do you have, and what wheel size do you have configured for the car?

Otherwise, the further quick survey is:
  • Do you frequently use Sentry Mode?
  • Do you know for certain that Summon Standby is disabled most of the time?
  • What do you charge to, and how long does it sit at that charge?
  • Have you done anything weird with the 12V system (e.g. running a cooler off it 24/7)?
 
I really need to link a disclaimer when I write these things. I'll summarise: Stats (and nearly any other online service, including the official Tesla smartphone app) can be a very bad estimator of 100% capacity. Your charging and usage habits would need to be known to know if it was accurate-ish. Charging to 100% will be the only true indicator of your 100% capacity, if you read it from the car's screen and not the app.

Anyhow. Assuming you're doing "ideal" things (which is a huge assumption), this honestly looks similar to the beginning of graphs that folks had before a warranty battery replacement.

I find the jump around 500mi weird though. What model do you have, and what wheel size do you have configured for the car?

Otherwise, the further quick survey is:
  • Do you frequently use Sentry Mode?
  • Do you know for certain that Summon Standby is disabled most of the time?
  • What do you charge to, and how long does it sit at that charge?
  • Have you done anything weird with the 12V system (e.g. running a cooler off it 24/7)?
The jump around 500 miles had to do with Tesla rerating the miles per charge of some of the models. I have a M3 P- with 19 inch wheels. I charge to 80% full charge either nightly or every other night. I use Sentry Mode but it is off at home and my office. Not sure about summons standby but there have been no changes. Nothing odd with 12v system but did have early failure of my 12v battery that had to be replaced.
 
I have read every word of these posts before. I realize that there is degradation over time. My question had to do with a drop off this steeply was concerning. More specifically, if anyone has seen a drop like this particularly before a failure.

When you get to 217 (70% of 310, or the warranty on the battery) miles at 100% charge showing on your screen in your car (not stats, not teslafi or any other non tesla, then tesla will do something for you. Before that, they wont, so whether someone else has "seen this in the stats app battery health screen" doesnt
 
Tesla are right in the part that you agreed to 70% of capacity within the warranty for the battery. So you are in their hands when it comes to actual pack replacement. The grey area that comes into play, though less grey the more people that post results is usage habits can have an effect. Also it seems and this was something I learnt quite recently on these forums. More people using scanning apps connected directly to the car is that some people can get a rather wicked starting point compared to others. ( battery lottery ) As in a lower start when means from new you are kind of getting less for your money, no chance of getting advertised mileage and will feel the degradation much earlier because of less starting capacity. You know I hope battery day is not just going to extend the range and I hope drop the price for all. But I do hope that they build in extra capacity or nail degradation more. This is what a lot of other providers do because it gives less of above and more consistency through the first few years of life. If degradation cant be shot down then would it not be better to build in enough extra buffer to last the car through the warranty period? Wouldn't that be just another 10kwh? But for now unless you drive a Tesla like a snail all the time usage habits are going to take a toll.
 
The jump around 500 miles had to do with Tesla rerating the miles per charge of some of the models. I have a M3 P- with 19 inch wheels. I charge to 80% full charge either nightly or every other night. I use Sentry Mode but it is off at home and my office. Not sure about summons standby but there have been no changes. Nothing odd with 12v system but did have early failure of my 12v battery that had to be replaced.

So this is a 2020 model, right? I find the graph oddly flat to start with for a 2020.

Because of the re-rate this is probably less concerning than I thought. Reason I mentioned 12V is because a 12V drain (including a bad battery needing more frequent charging) will keep the car awake more, potentially having the same long-term effects and Sentry and Summon Standby (potential to imbalance the pack, seemingly, y having the car awake too much).

Only time will tell in this case; do report back in a few weeks and see where things are at, I'm curious to see if this flattens out or continues down. There are cases Tesla replaces the pack prior to a 30% reduction, but they're obvious cases with battery alerts on the screen.
 
my rated range via stats app dramatically
dropped after software updates 2020.40.xx

and yes I have read the 68 pages of MASTER:range loss
and the additional 14 pages of how I recovered half loss...

none of the techniques reversed the displayed rated range
by the stats app, and no I have not charged to 100%.

anyone else have this experience?