I really need to link a disclaimer when I write these things. I'll summarise:
Stats (and nearly any other online service, including the official Tesla smartphone app) can be a very bad estimator of 100% capacity. Your charging and usage habits would need to be known to know if it was accurate-ish. Charging to 100% will be the only true indicator of your 100% capacity,
if you read it from the car's screen and
not the app.
Anyhow. Assuming you're doing "ideal" things (which is a
huge assumption), this honestly looks similar to the beginning of graphs that folks had before a warranty battery replacement.
I find the jump around 500mi weird though. What model do you have, and what wheel size do you have configured for the car?
Otherwise, the further quick survey is:
- Do you frequently use Sentry Mode?
- Do you know for certain that Summon Standby is disabled most of the time?
- What do you charge to, and how long does it sit at that charge?
- Have you done anything weird with the 12V system (e.g. running a cooler off it 24/7)?