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Should I be concerned
- Thread starter Nexeus
- Start date
according to progressive most people do drive a car for 200k miles
How Many Miles Can a Car Last?
Your car can last for 200,000 miles or more. The lifespan depends on factors like routine maintenance, addressing repairs, and driving habits.
www.progressive.com
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Mine said 220 but it never got anywhere near that range. Depending on how close you can get the Wh/mi to the suggested amount in the “energy” program in the center screen aka MCU. But even when driving at 290 Wh/mi I could only get 160 mi or so.
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But the supercharging speed is awful unleas you get a larger pack.
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ucmndd
Well-Known Member
I know you copypasta this response in essentially every thread, but it's really misleading.
Re-cell posts pricing right on their website - their cheapest option is $7,895 plus return transport if required. Prices go up from there.
057's pricing is more situational, but I'm pretty certain they don't claim to be anywhere near $5k in the vast majority of situations.
Tesla refurbs in every estimate/invoice we've seen in the last several months have been ~$13k for the battery. Additional parts, labor, etc. add more and bring the typical transaction closer to $15k, not $10k.
Yes, there are reputable third party options out there and that's great. I would highly consider either of the above. But you need to re-train your chatbot to provide more accurate pricing.
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Yes, it COULD be. But it could also range from anywhere between free to $20K. I don't think your $5K repair is representative of most people's battery repair. Sure there have been some inexpensive repair attempts made by shops that I won't state here, but they're generally likened to jury-rigging and not long term fixes. Tesla charges about $12K-$16K for a reman battery replacement, so I think your post understates the potential cost of repairs.
according to progressive most people do drive a car for 200k miles
How Many Miles Can a Car Last?
Your car can last for 200,000 miles or more. The lifespan depends on factors like routine maintenance, addressing repairs, and driving habits.www.progressive.com
I read through the link and I don't see where it implies that most people drive a car for 200K miles. It states that the average age fleet is 12 years and that vehicles can last well over 200K miles, but that doesn't mean that is most. It would mean that most people would have to drive over 16K miles a year but according to a Google search the average US driver adds 13K miles per year. How this relates to Tesla, I would be very curious to know how many 2012-2015 Model S owners have hit 200K miles without a powertrain issue or a HV battery/drive unit replacement. I'd love to see a comparison of the moving average repair costs between the 2012-2015 Model S and the 2016+ Model S, and the Model 3/Y. I want to see how much more reliable the newer revised designs are compared to the earlier iterations.
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The 2022 average was 13.1 years and the average driver is 13500 - that equates to ~177k miles they probably just rounded up at that point... 177k miles at 20/mpg and $4 gas is over $35,000 which shouldn't be too hard to beat especially considering theres an 8 year warranty for HV battery/drives
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I have to chuckle at this reply a bit.
Without hijacking this thread, you're the outlier and that's okay, it's not a bad thing. Most people simply do not put 200k+ miles on their car per ownership duration.
Your argument is only valid if and when it is the same owner throughout the entirety of 200k+ miles (which only relates to you and not the majority of society). You can effectively almost break even with an EV in gas savings if you actually last long enough but it's just not the norm.
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1) i believe this discussion is relevant to this threadI have to chuckle at this reply a bit.
Without hijacking this thread, you're the outlier and that's okay, it's not a bad thing. Most people simply do not put 200k+ miles on their car per ownership duration.
Your argument is only valid if and when it is the same owner throughout the entirety of 200k+ miles (which only relates to you and not the majority of society). You can effectively almost break even with an EV in gas savings if you actually last long enough but it's just not the norm.
2) and what happens after you sell your ICE car?? you get another one? eventually you and or someone is going to put 200k miles of gas into a car.. or a future car.. thus spending more in gas than you could have spent on an entire EV ... the rebates make the math and the ROI very fast.. basically instant ROI in the case of a $13k Chevy Bolt
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You can do the math as far out as you need to make it work. I said "if you actually last long enough" (but truly no one will).
Here's simple math in a perfect world where everything is constant and nothing can go wrong:
You buy a 2022 Plaid for $100k. Your electricity cost $0.12/kwh. Let's say the rated range is 325 miles on a full charge. That would cost you 100kwh battery X $0.12 = $12.00 for 325 miles. A 2022 Audi S8 should run about $100k as well with 18mpg so to go 325 miles it would cost about 18 gallons (325 / 18 = 18.05). Let's be generous and give a gallon of premium gas at $3 so 325 miles would cost $54 (3 x 18 = 54). Essentially you would save $42 (54 - 12 = 42) per 325 miles with the EV.
So to break even back your $100k spent on the Plaid, you would need to go through 2,381 charge cycles ($100k / $42 = 2380.95) or if we convert that to miles, you would need to drive 773,825 miles (2381 * 325 = 773825) to get your money's worth.
So the question comes, who's gonna drive their Plaid 700k+ miles to break even and show that you can save money with EVs? Assuming you can make it that far without a battery replacement, drive unit replacement, etc. which will add on to the money spent therefore you will never break even.
The math here is sloppy but you get the general idea. I didn't factor in any real-life incidents to throw this math off completely. Correct me where I'm wrong please.
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how did the Audi go from 100k to free?
You're already making money on the first tank of gas you buy for the plaid vs. audi if the initial cost is the same, right??
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The point here is that neither will go to zero. Are you serious about driving 700k miles to break even on the Plaid?
I look at life in the bigger picture frame and consider all aspects of it into my thought-process. At the end of the day, the entry point of EVs is too expensive for the average person/family. You can tout your chevy bolt all day but not a lot of people want a chevy bolt, or nissan leaf, or whatever. Tesla always come to mind when most people think EVs and Tesla vehicles are not cheap or if they are cheap, they come with higher risks. I'm sure many people want a Tesla but the math just won't work out. Financially, it's better to buy a later model, well-maintained used altima, corolla, whatever that gives 30mpg+ that you will never put 200k+ miles on.
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Does such a person exist that would rather drive a used altima than a new chevy bolt? And as the math shows would rather pay significantly more money to drive an altima than a bolt?
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Gladly.
This is the most dishonest thing in your post, and I'm having quite a laugh at it. I just picked a city in the U.S. on GasBuddy.com to check. (Phoenix? Seems average?) Premium gasoline there is running from about $4.34 to $4.50. So you ludicrously say you are being "generous" to our point of view by making up a gasoline price that's less than 70% of what it really is. You're not trying to be realistic here.
What $100K?!
There's no price difference at all in the car choices you present, so there is $0 amount of money to need to "break even" on anything.
I think I know what you were planning to do before accidentally forgetting and outsmarting yourself. You were planning to intentionally pick a really high end $100K EV and compare it to a used $20K gasoline beater to try to present the idea that ALLLL electric cars are WAY more expensive so you can point and proclaim that they are a bad choice. But then you accidentally did a real comparison of correctly equivalent priced cars, and so your propaganda point of the EV being more expensive disappeared. This showed by the fact that you then calculated the math, thinking you had a $100K price difference to make up for.
The reason the real math actually works is that there are now legitimate good EVs for around $40K to $50K. That's only a little higher than most average gas cars around $40K. So that is a fairly small-ish sticker price premium, which does reach a crossover point within the first several years.
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For lucky people like us whom can afford $100k cars or even $50k cars easily then no such person exists.
For the rest of society, yes, many-many of them exist. I tell everyone whom ask me about my P85D and I always tell them that EVs are a luxury item and will stay this way for a while. I share my battery heater episode and they all cringe. Normal society cannot afford EVs; they're just more expensive then ICE, period. Yes, you can argue the bolt again but have you looked at their sales figures? Obviously not a lot of people want that car to begin with.
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You missed the whole point... I think we've hijacked this thread far enough. Feel free to keep your perspective.
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ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Lol, let's use real math.
We'll start with your plaid example even though talking about cars at the tip-top of the performance spectrum with super small sales is not particularly relevant to a broader discussion.
Assumptions:
Average annual mileage for a car in the us (US Federal Highway Administration): 13,500
Average US gasoline price for regular unleaded (AAA, May 2023): $3.53
Average US electricity costs per kWh (US EIA, March 2023): $0.1585
Starting with the Plaid vs S8:
Plaid base MSRP (including destination, order fee, etc): $110,130
S8 base MSRP : $120,500
Difference: $-10,370. The plaid is already $10k cheaper to own on day one, so this comparison is truly stupid.
Factoring in fuel costs, 13,500 miles in the Plaid at average electric rates and ~3miles per kWh = $713.25
13,500 miles in the S8 at 18mpg EPA combined and $3.53/gal: $2647.50
So, every year you drive the Plaid you save an additional $1934. Say you keep the car 5 years, that's $9,670 on top of the $10,370 MSRP difference, so ~$20k savings over 5 years.
But again, this is a stupid example.
Let's look at cars people actually drive and are buying in significant numbers, like a Model Y vs. say an Audi Q5.
Model Y MSRP: $49,130
Audi Q5 base MSRP: $45,990
Difference: $3,140. That's of course assuming you DON'T qualify for the $7,500 tax credit, which the vast majority do, but we'll let it go since not everybody does.
Annual fuel costs in a Model Y assuming 4mi/kwh: $535
Annual fuel costs in a Q5 at EPA 25mpg combined: $1906
Annual savings: $1371. Break-even period: 2.3 years or 31,050 miles.
Let's say "blah blah blah Tesla is not a luxury car why are you comparing it to Audi that's stupid" and do a comparison with say a base Model Y including the tax credit almost everyone shopping these cars is eligible for and the volume-leader best possible fuel economy similarly equipped Toyota RAV4 XLE Hybrid. We'll close our eyes for a minute and pretend these are comparable cars.
Model Y MSRP: $49,130 (minus $7500 tax credit) = $41,630
RAV4 XLE Hybrid MSRP: $34,070
Difference: $7,560
Annual fuel costs in a Model Y assuming 4mi/kwh: $535
Annual Fuel costs in RAV4 at EPA 40mpg combined: $1191
Annual savings: $656. Break-even period: 11.5 years or 155,250 miles.
I'll leave it to the reader to decide if a RAV4 vs Model Y is a fair comparison or not.
This is easy enough to do with just about any other car. Bolt vs. Corolla, Model 3 vs. Camry or BMW 3 series, etc etc. You'll see similar results. For the average driver most EVs pay back their up-front premium in the first few years compared to a similar ICE.
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