Should I be worried?

[Muhammad]

I stood in line at Fremont Kato Road before opening, reserved at 11:00 (line was one of the longest), and am an owner who purchased my S in 2015 and have had it ever since.

Despite this, I still haven't received an invitation to configure. Anyone else with similar qualifications in my shoes? Should I be worried? Anything I could do to speed up the process at this point?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I stood in line at Fremont Kato Road before opening, reserved at 11:00 (line was one of the longest), and am an owner who purchased my S in 2015 and have had it ever since.

Despite this, I still haven't received an invitation to configure. Anyone else with similar qualifications in my shoes? Should I be worried? Anything I could do to speed up the process at this point?

No, you shouldn’t be worried. You have the same specs as those who have been invited so far, but lots of people with your specs haven’t been invited yet.

You should be excited. Your chance to configure will come very soon.

 

[BluestarE3]

You should be excited. Your chance to configure will come very soon.

Right. Much sooner than for us non-owners who likewise stood in line in the Bay Area.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I got a CPO Model S for less than $45k, and the depreciation has been non-existent so far. A very inexpensive way to move up in line, and I got an amazing car in the bargain.

 

[run-the-joules]

I got a CPO Model S for less than $45k, and the depreciation has been non-existent so far.

…other than the $4k in taxes you'll never get back.

I toyed with the idea but came to the conclusion that I simply do not have any interest in a Tesla without Autopilot, even if it's only for a few months.

 

[RandyS]

I reserved at 10:11 am on 3/31 (and own a 2013 Model S), and according to this rounded reservation list I put together from Troy's data, there were just over 9,000 reservations in place at that time. The next data point is from 12:30 pm, when there were 32,000 reservations...So, just making a rough linear guess, at 11 am when you reserved, it seems like there were approximately 20,000 reservations in place.

I was sent the configure email last week on the 23rd, and ordered, with a 4 week estimate for delivery. So it seems they have to work through the next 11,000 names on the list, see which ones want the First Production car, before they get to you...Not sure we know yet how many cars they're producing a week, but it seems that with any luck, it shouldn't be too much longer before they get to your place on the list...

 

[run-the-joules]

I reserved at 10:11 am on 3/31 (and own a 2013 Model S), and according to this rounded reservation list I put together from Troy's data, there were just over 9,000 reservations in place at that time. The next data point is from 12:30 pm, when there were 32,000 reservations...So, just making a rough linear guess, at 11 am when you reserved, it seems like there were approximately 20,000 reservations in place.

I was sent the configure email last week on the 23rd, and ordered, with a 4 week estimate for delivery. So it seems they have to work through the next 11,000 names on the list, see which ones want the First Production car, before they get to you...Not sure we know yet how many cars they're producing a week, but it seems that with any luck, it shouldn't be too much longer before they get to your place on the list...View attachment 263647

If those numbers are accurate (jesus christ, FML if they are because that pits me at right around the 100,000 mark… I'm never getting this car at this rate), it's still worth noting that a non-trivial portion of them will also be in other countries, and people who ordered two.

 

[smak]

I feel like they're going to send as many reservations out as cars they can make in 4 weeks.

They don't want to start sending them out with 4-6 week estimates, or 6-8 week etc..

So until they're confident that another batch of invites will be ~4 weeks to delivery, they'll hold off.

 

[Zaphod]

Yes, be very worried. Might as well cancel your order....


be patient, invite will come when it comes...

 

[DarthPierce]

If those numbers are accurate (jesus christ, FML if they are because that pits me at right around the 100,000 mark… I'm never getting this car at this rate), it's still worth noting that a non-trivial portion of them will also be in other countries, and people who ordered two.

I think you should roughly divide the number by 2 to account for international... at least historically about half of the sales are non-US. I think they'll try to get through the US pre-orders before shipping abroad (unless congress cancels the tax credit, then who knows).

 

[azred]

OP, you don’t need to worry. It’s pointless. Your $7500 tax break is all but gone. For those counting on that money to help offset the sticker shock of a $50,000 “affordable” Tesla, I would consider holding off for at least a year. By that time we will see the competition present more alternatives and Tesla will either figure out a way to make the affordable car more affordable or they’d better hope those semis sell like hot cakes. BTW I realize the small battery car saves $9,000 but a 220 mile range car only makes sense if you are leasing and will be out of the car quickly. For those of us who buy and hold, that car will be a bear to resell in 5 to 7 years when every Tesla and an increasing number of competitors will laugh at a 200 mile range car.

 

[T34ME]

Should I be worried?

Should you be worried about what? Tesla going bankrupt - NO. Tesla lost your reservation - NO. There is no Model 3, all the pictures are Photoshopped - NO. You should be truly excited that you will be getting your Model 3 about two years sooner than Tesla originally announced.

BTW I realize the small battery car saves $9,000 but a 220 mile range car only makes sense if you are leasing and will be out of the car quickly. For those of us who buy and hold, that car will be a bear to resell in 5 to 7 years when every Tesla and an increasing number of competitors will laugh at a 200 mile range car.

As will the 310 miles range car. Battery technology will increase tremendously in the next 5 to 7 years as the market for long range EV vehicles (cars, trucks, recreational vehicles) continues to grow.

 

[aaron0k]

Maybe they prioritize the "owners" category as well? 2013 owners before 2015 owners...

 

[eye.surgeon]

Keep in mind that only about 100 or so non-employee reservations have been sent out, a trivial amount, presumably so Tesla can claim to have delivered on their promise, in some reality-distortion world, of delivering to real customers in 2017. It could be 6 months before even day 1 reservationists get their cars, of which I am one.

 

[daniel]

Maybe they prioritize the "owners" category as well? 2013 owners before 2015 owners...

Gosh, I hope so!!! I got my Tesla in 2011.

@RandyS Thanks for posting that chart! I don't remember what time of day I ordered on April 1, but guessing, there are 200,000 people who ordered before me. However, I'm an owner on the west coast. If half of those are not west coast, and half of those are not owners, maybe there are "only" 50,000 ahead of me. And if (one can hope!) they give Roadster owners added priority, maybe not too many actually ahead of me.

On the other hand, the delivery estimator tells me Feb-April, which probably actually means June.

 

[gregincal]

Maybe they prioritize the "owners" category as well? 2013 owners before 2015 owners...

The existing data of who has been invited doesn't bear this out. There have been recent owners invited and longtime owners who haven't been yet. But the point for this thread is that there are lots of existing owners who waited in line to reserve that haven't been invited yet.

 

[smak]

Keep in mind that only about 100 or so non-employee reservations have been sent out, a trivial amount, presumably so Tesla can claim to have delivered on their promise, in some reality-distortion world, of delivering to real customers in 2017. It could be 6 months before even day 1 reservationists get their cars, of which I am one.

100 posted on Tesla forums = how many in real life?

 

[McHoffa]

100 posted on Tesla forums = how many in real life?

I don’t even think there have been 100 on the forums. About 30 on this forum that I had counted. Double that to 60 to account for those that aren’t on this particular forum.

Someone else here corrected me when I guessed maybe half post online when it happened and said they thought at most 10% of people would post about it online. If 10% is right that’s up to 600. Round it up and you have 1000. I think that’s high but none of us know until we get official Q4 totals.

 

[Muhammad]

Invite received!