I realize no one has a crystal ball and there are multiple unpredictable factors that can affect resale value. But if Tesla offered me $24,700 for my 2018 P3D now, any rough guess on what I could get for the car if I keep it for 2 more years and try to sell it when it is 7 years old?
A rough rule-of-thumb is that a car looses 20% of its value when it leaves dealer's parking lot. Then 10% every year after that.
That's obviously too generic, and does not take mileage and condition into account. Or Tesla dropping MSRP prices by 20-25%, thus propagating an equivalent value drop through the used car market.
Absent additional (Tesla) depreciation shocks, the 10% annual depreciation declines in absolute $ value will be down to $2-3K/year from here on out.
The car currently has about 43K miles. My guess is that in 2 years, it will have around 60-63K miles.
FWIW, I have 62.5K miles on my 2019 TM3P.
Carvana keeps sending me monthly "your value" reminders. The last one quoted $21,800.
Carvana was the low-balling leader when I was shopping to sell my car this August/September. Others were a few $K higher. I could not get anything close to what I thought would be reasonable, so I kept the car and decided to upgrade it instead.
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