Should I order now or wait until after the April 22 FSD showcase?

[Knightshade]

Okay, let's get this topic back on track. The FSD may be a mild improvement on 4/22, or it may be completely operational, but people are only going to pay so much for it, no matter how fantastical it is. Everyone has their number they won't go over. Mine is about $2000.

To be fair- if they had real L5 operational they could charge $10,000 and wouldn't be able to build enough cars to meet demand by at least a factor of 20. And that's probably low-balling both numbers.

Hell, demand likely would exceed supply significantly with just fully working L3/4 on highways at that price.

All that said- the best they're gonna announce tomorrow as "ready" is an L2 system (what they have today) that officially works in a lot more places... and show a demo of a higher level system they're not actually rolling out due to regulatory reasons.

Regarding the OP- most likely they're already building everything with HW3, and will mention that tomorrow- but if you're buying FSD you'll get HW3 anyway as mentioned even if you took an existing inventory car.

THAT said- it's only a day away, so don't see any harm in waiting- given Musk said the FSD price increase wouldn't be till May 1st.

 

[Leafdriver333]

If a prospective owner doesn't want to be deprived of owning a Tesla, there is nothing wrong with making the purchase now.

It's also understandable to make a purchase decision based on as much information as possible (such as FSD has been planned to be increased substantially starting on 5/1/2019.)

Since additional information will be presented in about 24 hours, I don't see what's the rush to make a decision without watching Tesla Autonomy Day online.

Either way, buy now or later, both decisions are fine as long as owners understand why they made them so there won't be any sad stories of a buyer's remorse.

Like you say, FSD price will go up as Elon announced.
I would order today because after the announcement new orders may be placed like crazy and waiting will only get you farther back in the line.

 

[JulienW]

...It's also understandable to make a purchase decision based on as much information as possible (such as FSD has been planned to be increased substantially starting on 5/1/2019.)

Since additional information will be presented in about 24 hours, I don't see what's the rush to make a decision without watching Tesla Autonomy Day online.....

...but will the price increase amount be announced tomorrow or will it be a May 1st surprise?

 

[Leafdriver333]

...but will the price increase amount be announced tomorrow or will it be a May 1st surprise?

Elon kept his word on $35K Tesla.
He will stick to May 1st date.

 

[JulienW]

Elon kept his word on $35K Tesla.
He will stick to May 1st date.

I'm asking if the pice increase for FSD will be announced tomorrow or will it be unknown until May 1.

 

[Leafdriver333]

I'm asking if the pice increase for FSD will be announced tomorrow or will it be unknown until May 1.

I guarantee you the price increase will happen on May 1st.

 

[JulienW]

I guarantee you the price increase will happen on May 1st.

I'm I not speaking/typing good English? I KNOW it is increasing or supposed to on May 1. I want to know HOW MUCH is it increasing. Will we know tomorrow HOW MUCH it is going to cost or must we wait until AFTER (May 1) to see what the amount is or was at that time?

 

[Leafdriver333]

I'm I not speaking/typing good English? I KNOW it is increasing or supposed to on May 1. I want to know HOW MUCH is it increasing. Will we know tomorrow HOW MUCH it is going to cost or must we wait until AFTER (May 1) to see what the amount is?

I apologize. English is my 2nd language.
We don't know if they would talk about price or not tomorrow or they will just talk about the new technology.
But I get a week to decide whether FSD will worth $5500 to me.

 

[Knightshade]

I'm I not speaking/typing good English? I KNOW it is increasing or supposed to on May 1. I want to know HOW MUCH is it increasing. Will we know tomorrow HOW MUCH it is going to cost or must we wait until AFTER (May 1) to see what the amount is or was at that time?

Someone asked Elon if it was going up by like $3000 and he replied "something like that" so it gives you a rough ballpark anyway.

Another reason that # is likely is it puts FSD at $8000 pre-purchase at at time when they just made AP free.

Guess how much total AP+FSD used to cost pre-purchase? $8000.

 

[Leafdriver333]

Someone asked Elon if it was going up by like $3000 and he replied "something like that" so it gives you a rough ballpark anyway.

Another reason that # is likely is it puts FSD at $8000 pre-purchase at at time when they just made AP free.

Guess how much total AP+FSD used to cost pre-purchase? $8000.

And SR+ went up by $2000 because of AP.

So AP + FSD = $10000 pre delivery starting May 1st.

 

[chillerjt]

So thanks for all the responses! Especially the SpaceX news... since I'm in the space business.

I've decided to wait until after the announcement.

Pros - More information. Higher chance of getting the HW3 in my car when it's delivered.
Cons - Possible car price increase (not likely), possible FSD price increase (most likely but I'll place my order before May 1st), The announcement is sooooo awesome that tons of buyers in the Denver area rush to order and I have to wait for my car.

Btw, I'm going with black exterior, black interior and regular 18 in aero wheels. Basic setup with no customization.

 

[animorph]

I advised a poster on another thread who wasn't buying FSD to wait until HW3 was confirmed in Model 3's, and to avoid non-HW3 inventory cars. Without FSD you're kind of stuck with AP2.5 if that's what it comes with.

If you're getting FSD I'm not nearly as concerned. You'll either get HW3 with the car or have it upgraded later.

The only remaining concern would be some announcement at the FSD conference of other hardware changes for FSD. Not likely, but even less likely after the conference.

At this point I'd listen to the conference, or read the articles, before buying.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If you're going to wait, you might as well wait until after the earnings release on April 24th. I think that will have more important information.

 

[Leafdriver333]

Might as well wait until July 1st when the price drop will happen.

 

[chillerjt]

If you're going to wait, you might as well wait until after the earnings release on April 24th. I think that will have more important information.

Why would you think that would have more important information?

 

[chillerjt]

Might as well wait until July 1st when the price drop will happen.

That might be too long.. and the federal tax rebate goes from $3750 to $1875.. as of right now. Or maybe you're saying for the end of quarter sale.

 

[Knightshade]

The only remaining concern would be some announcement at the FSD conference of other hardware changes for FSD. Not likely, but even less likely after the conference.

Musk has previously, and repeatedly, confirmed the only change for HW3 is swapping the AP computer.

 

[JulienW]

Know it's early in development but....can HW3.0 hardware be upgraded to 5G?

While still evolving 5G is going to offer lots of networking and data advantages for self driving cars. It may very well end up being a mandated requirement once certain systems and protocols for self driving are developed. Is the Model 3 and HW3.0 hardware capable of a 5G upgrade? Is the LTE integrated into AP module are another module? Just hate to find out that it is a mandated requirement and that that it can’t be retro fitted in the current system. This could not only be an inconvenience but a potential future litigation/class action disaster. Can’t recall any mention of the future of 5G and Tesla.

I’m about to pull the trigger and likely add FSD despite not needing it yet. Just like to know how “future proof” FSD really is. Hope there is some clarity tomorrow on what the future hold and 5G is addressed.

 

[insaneoctane]

I already purchased FSD, so consider that bias with this advice.....FSD prices can't go up too much UNTIL they demonstrate significant capability. Will that happen April 22nd? Probably. That would also explain why Elon was on Twitter giving fair notice that it will likely go up soon. But, we are really just guessing at what might happen, we don't know for sure

 

[Knightshade]

Know it's early in development but....can HW3.0 hardware be upgraded to 5G?

While still evolving 5G is going to offer lots of networking and data advantages for self driving cars. It may very well end up being a mandated requirement once certain systems and protocols for self driving are developed. Is the Model 3 and HW3.0 hardware capable of a 5G upgrade? Is the LTE integrated into AP module are another module? Just hate to find out that it is a mandated requirement and that that it can’t be retro fitted in the current system. This could not only be an inconvenience but a potential future litigation/class action disaster. Can’t recall any mention of the future of 5G and Tesla.

I’m about to pull the trigger and likely add FSD despite not needing it yet. Just like to know how “future proof” FSD really is. Hope there is some clarity tomorrow on what the future hold and 5G is addressed.

One has nothing to do with the other... (nor am I clear why 5G would be required at all here- the amount of data self driving cars routinely would pass is relatively small, well within LTE/4G speeds...the only thing 5G would be useful for would be if you want to remotely drive a car over a network where ultralow latency is vital, which is not at all the model Tesla is using)

That said- Tesla offered older 3G cars a $500 upgrade to LTE, it's just a modem swap after all, so I imagine they'll offer an LTE->5G swap in the future for folks who really want it... (FWIW most folks who went 3G to LTE found no worthwhile improvement of anything since nothing the car does is really dependent on the data connection being super fast anyway...)