Should I take delivery of MYLR DBM from Fremont later this month? [Posted March 2023]

[babakiltoe]

Hi all, just got assigned a VIN for my MYLR in deep blue metallic color. VIN decoder reveals that it will be from Fremont despite my location being on the east coast. My first order was actually for a MSM from Austin and I opted to reject the vehicle on some build quality issues. After some more thought, changed color to DBM and was just assigned a new VIN.

There are a couple of things on my mind right now that are making me reconsider if I should go through with this or not.

HW4 is coming. But when? When will it be introduced into the model y? Will it first come out in the S and X, and then when Juniper happens late 2024 will the Y finally get HW4? Or will it be sooner than that? Will their build update actually cut costs of the car and keep the current price about where it's at, further depreciating a current 2023 MY? Is now actually a pretty bad time to pull the trigger?

What do you all think?

 

[StoXto3toY]

You asked a bunch of questions nobody can answer.

 

[Mr_Joe]

So you're going to get Matrix lights and 4D1 motor, and you're considering passing? LOL

 

[Mr_Joe]

Hi all, just got assigned a VIN for my MYLR in deep blue metallic color. VIN decoder reveals that it will be from Fremont despite my location being on the east coast. My first order was actually for a MSM from Austin and I opted to reject the vehicle on some build quality issues. After some more thought, changed color to DBM and was just assigned a new VIN.

There are a couple of things on my mind right now that are making me reconsider if I should go through with this or not.

HW4 is coming. But when? When will it be introduced into the model y? Will it first come out in the S and X, and then when Juniper happens late 2024 will the Y finally get HW4? Or will it be sooner than that? Will their build update actually cut costs of the car and keep the current price about where it's at, further depreciating a current 2023 MY? Is now actually a pretty bad time to pull the trigger?

What do you all think?

Take it and run! Congratulations fellow Georgian. That's a sweet deal you just got.

 

[babakiltoe]

You asked a bunch of questions nobody can answer.

Yep, just trying to feel out others' opinions on likelihood and if waiting seems to be worth it or not.

 

[babakiltoe]

So you're going to get Matrix lights and 4D1 motor, and you're considering passing? LOL

I don't think matrix lights are guaranteed but there's a decent chance I think. Even still, HW4 would obviously be a huge upgrade especially when considering depreciation resistance.

 

[Mr_Joe]

I don't think matrix lights are guaranteed but there's a decent chance I think. Even still, HW4 would obviously be a huge upgrade especially when considering depreciation resistance.

100% freemont builds come with matrix lights

 

[babakiltoe]

100% freemont builds come with matrix lights

I did not know that. Good to know. Overall, feel like it's a pretty good time to take the deal? Subtotal came to $53,990

 

[Mr_Joe]

I did not know that. Good to know. Overall, feel like it's a pretty good time to take the deal? Subtotal came to $53,990

Yes, that's a badass deal. Go inspect the outside of the car for fit/gaps and if it looks good then consider that you just used the rest of your luck for 2023. Congratulations

Take the deal and don't look back.

 

[babakiltoe]

Yes, that's a badass deal. Go inspect the outside of the car for fit/gaps and if it looks good then consider that you just used the rest of your luck for 2023. Congratulations

Take the deal and don't look back.

I'd like to think so! But it's hard not to be worried about what the HW4 could bring to the table. It could bring 360 view for instance. But on the other hand it may be something that could be added to HW3 as well. But I'm no expert.

 

[Unclepaul]

There is always something new coming soon with Tesla. You can never buy one with the coming soon features, only what is installed when it rolls down the assembly line.

Playing "What if?" is an endless game.

 

[flgatorfan]

 

[Gumball]

After HW4, HW5 will be coming, better wait for that.

 

[Mr_Joe]

I bet HW4 arrives with the MY Refresh. Which will probably take place November 2024.

 

[tashtibet]

nobody has any guarantee that they can Wake up & Get Up tomorrow! With Tesla Sooner, the Better!

 

[Midpack]

Sure are a lot of duplicate Q&A's on this forum...

Prices - I seriously doubt the MY will go lower in price, they have WAY more demand than production capacity at the current price. It's probably the best time to buy from a cost POV.

HW4 - FWIW Teslascope tweeted on 2/22/23:

- HW4 has already begun production (gratefully confirmed externally by @klwtts). Tesla's goal is for all vehicle models to be delivered with this new hardware by the end of Summer, including those made in China and Berlin.
- As of this moment, no actively produced Model S/3/X/Y will include additional cameras. Instead, Tesla has begun to upgrade the resolution of cameras silently, starting in late December 2022.
- We've been told to inform customers not to expect additional cameras for at least a few months. There is no information regarding retrofits, although if/when this is possible, it will require that HW4 is already present in the vehicle.
- The Cybertruck being produced this year and in-production Semis will be the first vehicles to have the additional cameras (and HW4) from the start. Before then, the Model X and S will be the first vehicles to include the new cameras, and this will gradually transition to include Model 3/Y (made in all regions) before the end of the year.

So I assume M3/MY will have HW4 only by end of Summer, and HW4 with additional sensors by end of 2023. No mention of when/if HD radar?

 

[babakiltoe]

Sure are a lot of duplicate Q&A's on this forum...

Prices - I seriously doubt the MY will go lower in price, they have WAY more demand than production capacity at the current price. It's probably the best time to buy from a cost POV.

HW4 - FWIW Teslascope tweeted on 2/22/23:

- HW4 has already begun production (gratefully confirmed externally by @klwtts). Tesla's goal is for all vehicle models to be delivered with this new hardware by the end of Summer, including those made in China and Berlin.
- As of this moment, no actively produced Model S/3/X/Y will include additional cameras. Instead, Tesla has begun to upgrade the resolution of cameras silently, starting in late December 2022.
- We've been told to inform customers not to expect additional cameras for at least a few months. There is no information regarding retrofits, although if/when this is possible, it will require that HW4 is already present in the vehicle.
- The Cybertruck being produced this year and in-production Semis will be the first vehicles to have the additional cameras (and HW4) from the start. Before then, the Model X and S will be the first vehicles to include the new cameras, and this will gradually transition to include Model 3/Y (made in all regions) before the end of the year.

So I assume M3/MY will have HW4 only by end of Summer, and HW4 with additional sensors by end of 2023. No mention of when/if HD radar?

Yeah so in like 6 months, there will potentially be a huge upgrade in hardware. Why would I pull the trigger and buy one now when a massive upgrade is going to be available shortly?

 

[vet757]

HW4 will not make HW3 obsolete in any way, is just an upgraded version. In tech you cant think "Im gonna wait for the next iteration", otherwise you'll be waiting forever. Then there's project Juniper (refreshed 2024 Model Y). Thats another year or more of waiting. Lets say you wait. Do you really want a 1st Gen model? New manufacturing process, new equipment, definitely new issues...now youre at 2025 waiting for the perfect MY with HW5 in the horizon lol.

Who knows... maybe by the time HW4 or Juniper comes out, prices are back to what they were (I dont want to pay $65k+ for a MY). I plan to take my pre-ordered MYLR in June 2023, if HW4 comes out so be it, if not, I plan to take delivery regardless.
Good luck!

 

[Mr_Joe]

Yeah so in like 6 months, there will potentially be a huge upgrade in hardware. Why would I pull the trigger and buy one now when a massive upgrade is going to be available shortly?

Your MY will cost more, if you're ok paying more then go for it.

 

[babakiltoe]

Your MY will cost more, if you're ok paying more then go for it.

So you think when MY comes out with HW4 the prices will be even lower than they are now?