Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
I think they were talking about the later model 4 door Insight? Still, your point applies. But I wanted to note for people that there were 2 different Insights.
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mmd
Active Member
Please point to just a SINGLE claim like that, claiming Tesla won't produce any M3 till 2018.The OP started off with a made up bear argument, but subsequent points are somewhat valid.
Here are other bear points that I have heard of:
- If Tesla loses ~$300M a quarter selling $100k cars with no competition, they will lose more selling $42k Model 3 with a bunch of competition. The more they will sell, the more they will lose.
- If M3 is good enough to compare to Model S, it will eat up Model S sales. If Model 3 is bad, then its sales will be much lower.
- Subsidy headwind.
- HOV lane access expiring in California at the end of 2018.
- ZEV credits will be worth much less because everyone will sell electric and PHEV cars. Meaning, more losses.
- Quality issues may be worse than Model S because of the short cuts taken.
- Ramp will be much much slower than predicted by Tesla.
- There will be lot of cancellations, especially after subsidies expire.
- not enough demand to maintain 500k M3 sales a year. Saturation point could be much lower than that -> No economies of scale.
- Lot of competitive cars in this price range are already there or will appear soon, with some being better in many aspects. Think Bolt EV at $179/mo lease; think upcoming Nissan Leaf 2018.
- Buyers in this price bracket are more value conscious than buyers of high priced cars. Meaning, they will cross shop more than Model S buyers, so competition will be fierce.
How about the bull thesis of 100k-200k M3 in second half of 2017? Oh, that must have meant Tesla will produce/deliver 30K M3 in July? That's an error factor of 1000.
BTW, when Tesla starts fooling around with definitions of car production milestones, no one knows what anyone is talking about. Is this the first production car delivery? LOL, we don't even know the pricing on this. No one has even seen a clear picture of the interior, and the car has not even been reviewed! The options and pricing are totally unknown! What exactly is the technical difference between this SN1 and the ~100 release candidates (whatever that is supposed to mean), other than the number? Was this hand built or assembled on the final assembly line?
Now compare this to the delivery to the first 3 Bolt cars, and check out the things that happened before that.
First Chevrolet Bolt EVs Delivered, Nationwide Release By Mid-2017
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California most certainly didn't get rid of their incentive, in fact they are thinking of increasing it.
Based on any evidence at all?
There was no neutering. The Model 3 is a better car than anyone else can make for that money.
That would be the 'manual hand holding, you were talking about above.
Nonsense. The car costs $35,000 if that's all your budget can handle. All cars are ordered custom, no one has to pay 'average price' because that is the only thing on the lot. Tesla puts the price at $35k, buyers put the price above that by choosing options.
Thank you kindly.
A 2005-2009 Prius is a poor handling, poorly designed, poorly powered, overpriced econobox, made only to improve Toyota's CAFE rating so they can stay in the lucrative full sized truck and SUV market. It was cheaper than investing in modern engine technology. The 2000 Insight was quicker and had a nice interior instead of something from a schoolbus.
A Prius tells the World, "I Will Suffer For Mother Earth!!! See This POS I drive???" That's commitment.
Seriously, just pulling your chain since you love your Priuses almost as much as the Dislike button.
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The rebates stopped in California on June 30, except for low-income qualifiers.
Apply for a rebate
"Important Information
As of June 30, 2017, only qualified lower-income applicants, as described here, will receive rebates. CVRP reserved $8 million for qualified lower-income applicants, thereby prioritizing payments to low- and moderate-income applicants in accordance with program requirements. All other applicants will be placed on a rebate waitlist. Qualified applicants on the rebate waitlist will receive payment if the project receives more funding from the State of California. Learn more."
I think naysayers are going to shift to Elon's clothing choices.... I mean, comon' guys... does he seriously think he can pull off wearing earth tones with that haircut?
On Lifestyle change,. I would agree only in so far as the frequency that one must push their BEV to it's range limits and beyond. That can and does require "some" planning with the current charging infrastructure. But again if this is a daily thing and you must push the limits daily then a BEV might not be for you given the current offerings and limited form factors.
On Fast charging I still think that is a "straw man" argument. Firstly "most" people don't drive as much or as far "or as often" as they think they do. There is no need to have to recharge in 10 minutes if your car has the needed range for "DAILY USE". Your car will be fully fueled for the days driving every morning "without the need to plan around a stop at a gas station on some days". We all want to buy a vehicle that can handle the worst case scenarios that come up perhaps a handful of times per year as opposed to buying a vehicle that excels at doing what we need it to do every day! For example I drive my car to work, run errands, etc. EVERY day. I drive beyond 250 miles "one way" in a single day maybe once or twice a year
Most people who say this don't realize how long their cars are actually "NOT" being driven and are parked, "Newsflash" the average car is parked in the high 90 percentile of the time such as.., when you sleep, when you work, while you are at a ball game, a movie, out to dinner, and the list goes on and on. There's plenty of time to charge. What's needed is not faster charging, it's more affordable electric vehicles with more user friendly form factors (not just compact clown cars) with sufficient REAL WORLD range and the continuing build out of charging infrastructure.
eye.surgeon
Active Member
There's a lot of conspiracy theories here about critics of the M3 timeline. There's plenty of room for legitimate concern about tesla's ability to build these at high volumes quickly and sell them profitably without having to assume some nefarious motivation. I'm thrilled to see them meet their deadline for SN1 and I'm a day 1 reserver and MS owner, but the path from here to success with the M3 is hardly assured.
the risk is not the naysayers.
the risk is that the longs decide that Tesla is now a real company and not just a game.
for example, look at what happened to my favourite company once it achieved its reason for existence.
I remember watching this rise from an adjusted equivalent of 1 cent to $12. and then crash to about $2 then level of at $5.
a crash from $12 to $2 is tremendous, but that still was a 200 bagger for those who bought in at the start. now the stock is a mere 500 bagger over the long term.
Tesla is still on the up ramp, perhaps to a trillion, perhaps its already peaked.
start of Model 3 production is a risky time, the valuation could bet reset lower due to company maturity.
What the shorter's feel about Tesla is irrelevant, they are maxed out already.
the risk is that the longs decide that Tesla is now a real company and not just a game.
for example, look at what happened to my favourite company once it achieved its reason for existence.
I remember watching this rise from an adjusted equivalent of 1 cent to $12. and then crash to about $2 then level of at $5.
a crash from $12 to $2 is tremendous, but that still was a 200 bagger for those who bought in at the start. now the stock is a mere 500 bagger over the long term.
Tesla is still on the up ramp, perhaps to a trillion, perhaps its already peaked.
start of Model 3 production is a risky time, the valuation could bet reset lower due to company maturity.
What the shorter's feel about Tesla is irrelevant, they are maxed out already.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Seriously, just pulling your chain since you love your Priuses almost as much as the Dislike button.
Honestly I hate driving the Prius now because of slow throttle response, vibration, noise (vibration and noise that would have been considered practically insignificant to me before EVs came along).
I loved the Prius when I was making $3x,xxx a year and it was giving me sub 5 cents a mile transportation. I can drive the leaf now at half the cost per mile with it being better 99% of the time than the Prius. I'm sure that when I get a Tesla it'll be better than the Leaf 99% of the time as well.
Onward and upward.
JoaoD
Tech Enthusiast
Tesla Model 3 will not arrive until ‘very end’ of 2018, says once TSLA-cheerleader Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas • r/teslamotors
And you also have a Business Insider article claiming the same if you google "Tesla won't produce any Model 3 until 2018"
Really great points. Although I'm neither a Tesla fan or basher and have a 72k+ reservation position, the few things going for a Tesla, at least on my book), are:
- Availability of AWD (no penalty in range/economy unlike in ICE vehicles)
- Fast enough at 5.6 seconds 0-60
- Seems like ESA is being honored and customers are not getting the brush off (as long as repair work is not related to the exclusions which are mostly wear and tear)
- I don't dig the styling of the Bolt although it seems practical with the hatch-like design but I read that the rear seats are cramp
- The Ontario, Canada provincial credit of about $11k that could expire if the incumbent party loses in June 2018 and so very little competition at the moment
- We are likely needing to replace an 02 Honda Civic once drivers in the household go from two to three
- Access to the SCN but I think charging at home at night is still going to be the cheapest way to charge an EV and I hate having to line up or struggle with people who jump the queue.
- Auto Pilot though I'm not sure when Full Driving will be available but I'm okay with dynamic cruise control really cause I don't do cross-country trips.
- At least 1/3 of car manufacturers are going to make BEVs. Because I'm more concerned with reliability and quality, I tend to put my focus on Japanese makes (could be because of perceived higher reliability but I've owned Honda's and a Toyota and issues have been very trivial and few and far between). Honda promised another EV besides the lackluster Clarity, Toyota will be making BEVs by 2019, Nissan is coming out with the Leaf if September and Mazda, seems to have joined the bandwagon. When people mention the lack of an engine and transmission that makes EVs more reliable, I believe them, but my 02 Civic, 11 Accord and 16 RAV4 Hybrid have had little issues with the engines and transmissions.
- Lack of service centers (though we have one in the city) could impact customer satisfaction
- Potentially expensive repairs and parts
- Potentially lower reliability compared to a Toyota or Honda BEV
My daughter still thinks a Tesla is very cool even when I told her the most important things about cars for people who don't have a money tree growing in the back yard would be the total cost of ownership / reliability.
wallet.dat
Member
I've been seeing a lot of arguments that go something like this:
B-b-but mining for materials to make the batteries create so much more pollution than a gas car. And electricity is powered by coal-burning power plants.
That's all they've got now, it would seem.
B-b-but mining for materials to make the batteries create so much more pollution than a gas car. And electricity is powered by coal-burning power plants.
That's all they've got now, it would seem.
You read wrong. In fact, actual magazine reviewers often comment exactly the opposite, that the rear seating is taxi sized.
My 6'1" self has more room sitting in the rear seat of the Bolt than the Model S.
Not that the Model S lacks rear seating, it's just that the Bolt has a touch more headroom, and good amount of extra leg room. Either one is acceptable. Neither is as large as a normal large luxury sedan in the back, or a full sized SUV.
I suppose a Model 3 could be larger than the Model S in the back, we will have to wait and see.
EV-lutioin
Active Member
Yes, we know they are susceptible to "hubris" and being "an idiot", so all they have to do now is avoid both.
EV-lutioin
Active Member
California has not dropped their EV rebate, rather they have proposed plans to double down on it down on it.
Moving rebates to those under 300% of federal poverty rate is not dropping the incentives, rather it is expanding the distribution of the program's funds the the general population, which will do much more for EV adoption by encouraging the production of EV's in their price range. California is all-in for EV's.
they will say garbage like this:
Will the Model 3 be a boost to Tesla?
nothing out of her mouth is actually true.
Will the Model 3 be a boost to Tesla?
nothing out of her mouth is actually true.
the 3 could kill s sales for sure. And dont give me the bmw 3 series didnt kill the 5 or 7 series comparisons..those are lame.
Musk has to be very careful with the 3 because i bet if the 3 and s were the same peice people would buy the s...so now most people are into the 3 because its 1/2 or more the price of the s for pretty much the same thing really....sans the hatchback and d for now but lets face it price drives people mostly in this realm.
