Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[techmaven]

It's been kind of quiet the past few days, so I'll throw out a question: What are the chances Tesla will break ground on the first gigafactory site by the end of this month (June)?

I have been wondering the same thing. I bought some short term calls last week in anticipation, but I want to get out of most of it before it becomes news. I'm afraid of both Tesla time and a possible let down. They were doing quite well until late this afternoon, when everything went to crap. Still, I'm up, but just not nearly as up. I'm thinking the market will sidestep a bit but Tesla will go back up in anticipation of the gigafactory groundbreaking - if nothing else, the announcement of where for the media to show up for the groundbreaking.

I think if Tesla doesn't make that announcement or delays it, we are in for a world of hurt.

 

[EnergyMax]

We're down $6.41 in AH. Just a fluke transaction?
-----
Never mind. Google quotes is all messed up and shows the day as positive.

 

[austinEV]

It isn't just Google. Stockcharts.com shows a big transaction at the end of the day (10 min period chart): But my schwab shows it down. Dang it am I happy or sad!

 

[FluxCap]

Google glitch made me do a double-take as well. Yahoo ticker has it right, it seems.

 

[mershaw2001]

how did you get stockcharts to be intraday? My only options are daily or weekly.

 

[austinEV]

how did you get stockcharts to be intraday? My only options are daily or weekly.

Pay $19/month. Very handy.

It is now "fixed" on stockcharts.com, but still shows some trades happening up at $238.

 

[chickensevil]

Google has finally fixed their charts too. the order was put in at 16:34EST for the 238 trade... according to Google that is. Some seller must be REALLY happy and some buyer must be REALLY pissed... Since all after hours trades have to go in as market orders don't they?

 

[mershaw2001]

Google has finally fixed their charts too. the order was put in at 16:34EST for the 238 trade... according to Google that is. Some seller must be REALLY happy and some buyer must be REALLY pissed... Since all after hours trades have to go in as market orders don't they?

All after hours trades have to go in as limit orders, you can't market order the after hours.

 

[aznt1217]

Relax only 35k shares moved

 

[Toyolla2]

Mershaw can you explain briefly this market versus limit orders thing ? If that is briefly possible.

It appears for the incident in question that the last trade before close - which I assume was at 16:00EST - was as shown currently at $232.50.
But someone's AH trade got picked up at $238 at 16:34EST ! But they were expecting to buy in around $232.50. How come they got stiffed at $238 ?
What should they have done differently ? THNX

 

[MikeC]

Usually when there is an after hours trade that is way off, the assumption is that it was an order during regular hours that was recorded late.

 

[ggr]

Usually when there is an after hours trade that is way off, the assumption is that it was an order during regular hours that was recorded late.

It had been some hours before close that it last traded at $238, so I don't think that can be the explanation.

@toyolla2: A limit order is straightforward; if the order can be filled at the limit you specifiy (or better), the trade will happen, otherwise it will wait. So if you say "sell at $238", if there are buyers who are prepared to buy for that (or more) the trade will happen.

A market order is paradoxically less straightforward. If you look at the quoted prices, there's a bid (the price at which someone will buy) and a offer (the price at which someone will sell), and they're never the same! That's because if they were the same, the transaction would have happened already. When you place a market buy (resp. sell), you are saying that you will accept the offer (resp. bid) that's currently outstanding. But by the time your trade gets to the top of the queue, those numbers might have changed. This is particularly true of thinly traded stocks and after-hours trades. But even during normal hours it can happen. Suppose you put in a market buy order for 100 shares, and there's someone else (the lowest offerer) offers 10 shares at $238. So you buy 10 shares at $238. But the next lowest offerer had his sell order at a limit of $245! Oops, you will instantly buy as many (up to 90 shares) of his as you can... at $245.

There are people who place ridiculously out-of-the-money limit orders after hours, or on thinly traded stocks, in the hopes that some chump will come along and place a market order that will get filled at the ridiculous price. This is why market orders are not allowed out-of-hours. But there are still occasionally people who will decide that they really want the shares NOW, and will buy them anyway.

I have no idea what happened in this case, but that is my explanation... and I almost never place market orders any more.

- - - Updated - - -

Usually when there is an after hours trade that is way off, the assumption is that it was an order during regular hours that was recorded late.

It had been some hours before close that it last traded at $238, so I don't think that can be the explanation.

@toyolla2: A limit order is straightforward; if the order can be filled at the limit you specifiy (or better), the trade will happen, otherwise it will wait. So if you say "sell at $238", if there are buyers who are prepared to buy for that (or more) the trade will happen.

A market order is paradoxically less straightforward. If you look at the quoted prices, there's a bid (the price at which someone will buy) and a offer (the price at which someone will sell), and they're never the same! That's because if they were the same, the transaction would have happened already. When you place a market buy (resp. sell), you are saying that you will accept the offer (resp. bid) that's currently outstanding. But by the time your trade gets to the top of the queue, those numbers might have changed. This is particularly true of thinly traded stocks and after-hours trades. But even during normal hours it can happen. Suppose you put in a market buy order for 100 shares, and there's someone else (the lowest offerer) offers 10 shares at $238. So you buy 10 shares at $238. But the next lowest offerer had his sell order at a limit of $245! Oops, you will instantly buy as many (up to 90 shares) of his as you can... at $245.

There are people who place ridiculously out-of-the-money limit orders after hours, or on thinly traded stocks, in the hopes that some chump will come along and place a market order that will get filled at the ridiculous price. This is why market orders are not allowed out-of-hours. But there are still occasionally people who will decide that they really want the shares NOW, and will buy them anyway.

I have no idea what happened in this case, but that is my explanation... and I almost never place market orders any more.

 

[Johan]

Mershaw can you explain briefly this market versus limit orders thing ? If that is briefly possible.

It appears for the incident in question that the last trade before close - which I assume was at 16:00EST - was as shown currently at $232.50.
But someone's AH trade got picked up at $238 at 16:34EST ! But they were expecting to buy in around $232.50. How come they got stiffed at $238 ?
What should they have done differently ? THNX

Usually when there is an after hours trade that is way off, the assumption is that it was an order during regular hours that was recorded late.

We've discussed it before in the TSLA investment thread. The general conclusion is that it's a so called "late print". The trade probably happened during the day while the stock was at or just around that market price, but for some reason got registered in the after hours.

Perhaps it was this guy:

Who called his broker on this phone:

Who then mailed the stock purchase made in to the NASDAQ using this:

:smile:

 

[Auzie]

We've discussed it before in the TSLA investment thread. The general conclusion is that it's a so called "late print". The trade probably happened during the day while the stock was at or just around that market price, but for some reason got registered in the after hours.

Perhaps it was this guy:
View attachment 52255

Who called his broker on this phone:
View attachment 52256
Who then mailed the stock purchase made in to the NASDAQ using this:
View attachment 52257

:smile:

The person that does it that way is much better off not trading:biggrin:

 

[Toyolla2]

Thanks, I think. Ribbing aside, I had been lurking this thread for several months before I joined TMC. I guess 'that' discussion was hiding in the first 2000 posts of the thread which I haven't yet got around to sifting through.

My first buy in March '14 was $199 but the second buy a short time later (a lame attempt at dollar cost averaging) came in around $216. I had to set the bid somewhat higher than I wanted because I felt the stock was about to take off again and if the bid wan't registered in time then the order would have remained unfilled the next morning and I would have missed the spike and would have to rebid. In the event the order was taken but I was surprised to see an initial much lower opening price than what I paid when the market resumed trading the following morning. It appears that this is not an unusual occurrence. But I am expected to be placated because it was probably a "late print". Welcome to the professionals I guess !
Just makes me want to go hmm...

Even though I am in long, like most new investors I hang around these short term threads to see what happens since investor volatility is quite high. But this is not Facebook and downward resistance will be met by the many holders who have been interested in EV adoption for some years and will do what is necessary to prevent the shorts from wagging this dog's tail. The abysmal EPS doesn't phase us like it should, it is giving the rigid support that encourages the banks to advance funds at low cost to the company that is important, just my opinion.

 

[Curt Renz]

Usually when there is an after hours trade that is way off, the assumption is that it was an order during regular hours that was recorded late.

Indeed that is so. It's called an "out trade". It involves a mistake that had been made earlier in the day and was later corrected.

 

[austinEV]

Thanks, I think. Ribbing aside, I had been lurking this thread for several months before I joined TMC. I guess 'that' discussion was hiding in the first 2000 posts of the thread which I haven't yet got around to sifting through.

My first buy in March '14 was $199 but the second buy a short time later (a lame attempt at dollar cost averaging) came in around $216. I had to set the bid somewhat higher than I wanted because I felt the stock was about to take off again and if the bid wan't registered in time then the order would have remained unfilled the next morning and I would have missed the spike and would have to rebid. In the event the order was taken but I was surprised to see an initial much lower opening price than what I paid when the market resumed trading the following morning. It appears that this is not an unusual occurrence. But I am expected to be placated because it was probably a "late print". Welcome to the professionals I guess !
Just makes me want to go hmm...

Even though I am in long, like most new investors I hang around these short term threads to see what happens since investor volatility is quite high. But this is not Facebook and downward resistance will be met by the many holders who have been interested in EV adoption for some years and will do what is necessary to prevent the shorts from wagging this dog's tail. The abysmal EPS doesn't phase us like it should, it is giving the rigid support that encourages the banks to advance funds at low cost to the company that is important, just my opinion.

We should really take a page from Reddit forums and have a series of FAQ articles to bring new people up to speed. I feel like I benefited enormously in participating over the last 2 years and learned a lot in real time. But we have gone quiet because, in part, all of the "long arguments" were long ago made and don't change rapidly. For a while last year we had a virtual competition to write the best, most cogent "why Tesla is awesome" articles but we stopped once they were written. Similarly, we seemingly settled a few other discussions. it is harder to write a new "why Tesla is awesome (for investing) for mid 2014" article because it's 90% unchanged from last year.

We could write/crowdsource best articles for things like:
1) Best Bull argument for investing in TSLA.
2) Best Bear argument for avoiding or shorting TSLA.
3) Claims that Elon and TM have definately made, and sources (too much chatter about "no one ever said that. Where did you hear that?"
4) A single place for hard metrics. Deliveries, manufacturing rates, quarterly results and official datapoints outside of quarterly reports (like the detroit auto show announcement)
5) FAQ that have come up like:
a) is it better to buy and hold, or actively trade? (answer: there is no answer for that. invest at your own risk)
b) What common technical indicators do TSLA traders watch?
c) What brokerages/tools/fees do members use?
d) What resources are there for (misc generic trading topics, really unlrelated to TSLA at all but come up)
i) Options strategies
ii) trading terms


There are many other things I am surely forgetting, and the list itself would be a project. Anyone else think that is worth some work?

 

[c041v]

Austin - I think this is a great idea!

As I am a known Tesla fanatic amongst my friends and family. I often get all kinds of questions based on some partially digested snippet of news they heard. Some of my more savvy friends ask questions about the valuation, but most are just generally ignorant of the current state of EV's. It seems to invariably come up in whatever conversation I'm having, and usually not by me. I got the "What do you think of Elon Musk?" question just a couple days ago at a BBQ.

I'd love to have something I could send out to people (or post on my FB page) that spreads education in a balanced format. I would think it needs ot be something manageable and not some 20 page document. I think a number of people are now realizing that Tesla has made a lot of waves in a few short years, and that there's a great deal to know, but that figuring it all out could take a lot of time and effort. Most people I talk to don't even seem to realize the Model S is completely electric!

I imagine these posts might get exported to some other part of the forum by the mods, which is fine, but I do think it would be great to have some of our sharper minds author a "Tesla for dummies" document.

 

[Lessmog]

That's a brilliant idea, Austin! No new body is going to sift through thousands of posts in hundreds of threads to find a frequent answer.

Not picking up the handle, though - have other things to do, which I hope I can do better.

 

[austinEV]

Ok, I am not sure I am "picking up the handle either" but I would like to participate.

Can some Mod weigh in? What is the best mechanism for that? The wiki section?

BTW, I am certainly not suggesting no work has been done toward this. Julian has a bear (refutation) piece in the blog section for instance (from last Dec).