Is anyone aware of a live video feed link to the Hawthorne event, yet?
- - - Updated - - -
Chickensevil, I agree with you that a Model X unveiling is more probable than a Model 3 debut. The main point I'm making is that the potential exists for the stock to do very well the next day. Active traders and less active traders may play this event differently. The risk involved in Thursday's event is lighter for long-term investors than for active traders if both are fairly heavy in stock holdings on the night of the event. A "miss" for long-term, less-active traders means a wait of a few more months before the models are revealed and the inevitable upward movement in stock prices takes place.
- - - Updated - - -
If Tesla follows their own history... We will get the Beta Model X reveal, then the Model 3 prototype... Not the other way around. So I would agree Model 3 is unlikely at this point, but will likely come within the next few months. Maybe even before the Model X is fully released. Note that they showed the Model X before the first delivery of the Model S happened and that turned out OK. If the Model 3 is a mid-sized sedan, I would suggest that it will have almost no impact on a large CUV... two totally different target audiences.
I would be more worried about the Model 3 canibalizing potential Model S sales than anything, but everyone knows that the Model 3 is coming, so if they have decided to get an S today, then any news about a Model 3 happening in 3 years won't affect their decision to buy today. Any potential "lost" sales due to a concept release would be made up by increased brand recognition and news stories by people who can not only afford a Model S/X but would actually go and buy one.
Keep in mind that there are still so many people here in the US who have never even heard of Tesla, many who have maybe heard about it, but never seen one and don't even think you can get one. So better awareness about the company all around will only serve to increase sales as they get more market penetration.
Chickensevil, I agree with you that a Model X unveiling is more probable than a Model 3 debut. The main point I'm making is that the potential exists for the stock to do very well the next day. Active traders and less active traders may play this event differently. The risk involved in Thursday's event is lighter for long-term investors than for active traders if both are fairly heavy in stock holdings on the night of the event. A "miss" for long-term, less-active traders means a wait of a few more months before the models are revealed and the inevitable upward movement in stock prices takes place.