Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[techmaven]

So I'm out of puts. I sold my last put position at a sliver of a profit this morning (capturing 240 -> 236) just in case this Barclay's report is tradable.

It seems that the market has ignored it.

This ER is very hard to determine. I'm trying to figure out the low end scenario and I'm less confident that Tesla had a bad quarter. The headline numbers, much to the chagrin of Tesla bears is going to be pretty good because of the ZEV credits. If Tesla is able to significantly beat guidance, then non-GAAP EPS should be positive. Of all ER's, this one might be ... a lot of nothing as far as the stock goes. But that's really hard to assume since it's Tesla and and well... one has to factor in the Elon Musk wild card. We might even get a small pop, then a drag down until something new comes like P85D reviews.

If you subscribe to the alternating quarter theory, we are due for a down ER. (Q3 '13 down, Q4 up, Q1 down, Q2 up ... ). I definitely want to go in with some sort of cheap insurance puts... maybe 210's for Nov 14. I bought some $250 calls for Nov 7 which I intend on getting rid of before ER and Jan15 $265's which I intend to hold through ER. This is all outside of core TSLA holdings.

 

[MikeC]

Kind of interesting that the Barclays report didn't show up on the Yahoo news stream on my phone.

 

[AlMc]

Kind of interesting that the Barclays report didn't show up on the Yahoo news stream on my phone.

I was thinking the same thing. Checked my computer a couple times today just to see if it would pop up. Elon gets a hang nail and it is reported. Barclays claims a 15% delivery beat and...nothing.

 

[austinEV]

Doom and gloom about Q3 results have characterized the price action for the last 6 weeks. We are off of the ATH's because of the generally accepted notion that results will be at or slightly below guidance. So, I am not concerned about that. If that comes to pass I expect no noteworthy move, or a small move down. Or, we could get our first ironic bad news rally because the bad news is out, digested and no longer weighing things down (sort of the opposite of the stock plunging after good results are announced).

Given that so much gloom is priced in, I expect some other aspect of the letter or call to be the catalyst. Forward guidance, news about the X, or news about demand. Really it wouldn't take much to seem like really good news based on how much gloom is priced in.

I am not sure if the price will go up after the announcement, but I think it will rise smartly in the weeks that follow.

 

[32no]

I get that, that is where the 136 number comes from, I assume. But what about the 186? Are you suggesting that is just the conservative 30% that Jerome was suggesting?

If 136 is half then currently they would be paying 274 (which seems a little high... but I will go with it). A 30% reduction from that would be 191... so that doesn't seem quite right either... I am still confused on what the 186 number is supposed to be.

- - - Updated - - -

In other news, if we get a run up from this Barclays note I am selling off my options for sure before the ER. It does seem like the premarket is currently down though, so we shall see.

Sorry, the $186 number turned out not to be in the article, the $130 target was in the article, and $186 is what price you would get if you assume 30% savings. Sorry about that lack of clarification, I didn't remember the article to well, and I guess I fudged in the $186 which I calculated.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Doom and gloom about Q3 results have characterized the price action for the last 6 weeks. We are off of the ATH's because of the generally accepted notion that results will be at or slightly below guidance. So, I am not concerned about that. If that comes to pass I expect no noteworthy move, or a small move down. Or, we could get our first ironic bad news rally because the bad news is out, digested and no longer weighing things down (sort of the opposite of the stock plunging after good results are announced).

Given that so much gloom is priced in, I expect some other aspect of the letter or call to be the catalyst. Forward guidance, news about the X, or news about demand. Really it wouldn't take much to seem like really good news based on how much gloom is priced in.

I am not sure if the price will go up after the announcement, but I think it will rise smartly in the weeks that follow.

almost all of tsla reports are preceded by significant 4 week declines, based on my memory. The day of the report and day before usually present large swings down. This so far not unusual activity

 

[chickensevil]

almost all of tsla reports are preceded by significant 4 week declines, based on my memory. The day of the report and day before usually present large swings down. This so far not unusual activity

Yeah the key seems to always be that if we are down pre ER we have a good chance of going up and same the other way.

 

[InTheShadows]

I need to stop scheduling meetings at 9am Friday mornings. Today looks like it could be an exciting day.

 

[chickensevil]

I need to stop scheduling meetings at 9am Friday mornings. Today looks like it could be an exciting day.

I know how you feel, except I don't generally control most of my meeting scheduling. It was a good thing Wed I couldn't really touch anything because I had a meeting at 10AM that lasted until 11AM and had to travel to get there and travel back which basically threw out the entire morning trading session for me. If I had wanted to trade, I don't think I could have.

 

[jhm]

Tesla is opening a new store this week. This may not be big news, but its in my town, just 3 miles from my home. Decatur, GA will have the second Tesla store in the greater Atlanta area. A third store, without service, will come to Lenox Mall in Buckhead. EV sales are quite strong. Residents get a $5000 tax break from the state, in addition to the federal $7500 tax incentive.

I may just need to test drive the D with Autopilot before too long. I actually drive by the new store every day. So there it is, mocking me. What's weird is that I had not noticed it until this weekend.

 

[Cattledog]

The investor forums are a lot less frothy than previous quarters where things were bid up really high and then took a tumble. Perhaps that's a good sign that expectations are tempered and poised to move the other way with a good call. I expect Elon to be upbeat and Willy Wonka-like, much like he was at the last conference when he said we only got to see half the deck.

 

[Johan]

I'm really looking forward to tonight (it's the middle of the night for me). Hoping for a little bull run today fueled by pre ER optimism and 5 stars in Euro-NCAP.

 

[Hogfighter]

My prediction is that they have really ramped up production, and will be announced today. Wait times have gone from 4-5 months to one month. I don't believe that demand has waned. 2,000 P85Ds have been ordered which should have increased the wait times, but that hasn't been the case.

 

[ongba]

So what is the overall consensus for tonight with regards to people's position. Are the majority of the members of the forum cutting back their positions, holding, or adding prior to tonight? I have Jan 16 280 strike calls which I have no problem holding through earnings tonight. I also have March 15 300 strike calls which I'm not sure what to do with (hold or close out). There are good arguments for closing them (ie slightly bad earnings tonight) or for holding them (model x reveal perhaps in Jan and another earnings event in Feb). Any suggestions on the latter would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

 

[Larken]

The investor forums are a lot less frothy than previous quarters where things were bid up really high and then took a tumble. Perhaps that's a good sign that expectations are tempered and poised to move the other way with a good call. I expect Elon to be upbeat and Willy Wonka-like, much like he was at the last conference when he said we only got to see half the deck.

This pretty much sums up my opinion as well. The amount of delivered cars +/- compared to guidance isn't so relevant, even though the markets and bots might react to that initially. I think it's what Elon says in the CC that determines how the share price fares the coming weeks/months. Hopefully Elon will pull out some gold nuggets from his hat.

 

[pGo]

My prediction is that they have really ramped up production, and will be announced today. Wait times have gone from 4-5 months to one month. I don't believe that demand has waned. 2,000 P85Ds have been ordered which should have increased the wait times, but that hasn't been the case.

Can you share more info on the 2000 P85D orders? I havn't seen anything yet.

 

[AlMc]

OK. Most of us are LONG TSLA, but as this is the Short Term Social chat........any predictions?

Close today: 248 (due to election and 5* crash rating)

AH close today: 235 ( I think we hit deliveries/just miss production ) EPS .01 (Elon said we would show a slight +)...but it will because of ZEV credits (not sure how market will react)

close tomorrow: $230 (FUDsters will hit hard)

long term: lots of good things coming ( ex: model X reveal/ beat 35K guidance; huge EPS Q4) $300 May 2015

Wild card...as always...EM CC: He could blow my predictions up big time......I hope he does. While I am sitting on cash to buy post ER, long term it will not matter if I buy in at 220 or 260.



edit: And, I am wrong out of the gait

 

[emupilot]

So what is the overall consensus for tonight with regards to people's position. Are the majority of the members of the forum cutting back their positions, holding, or adding prior to tonight? I have Jan 16 280 strike calls which I have no problem holding through earnings tonight. I also have March 15 300 strike calls which I'm not sure what to do with (hold or close out). There are good arguments for closing them (ie slightly bad earnings tonight) or for holding them (model x reveal perhaps in Jan and another earnings event in Feb). Any suggestions on the latter would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

I got out of Jan 15 calls in favor of Mar 15 and Jan 16 because I want there to be enough time for a recovery if the stock dives and because the Detroit Auto Show and Q4 report should be good positive catalysts. I've also had some protective puts that I was hoping to sell on a pre-ER dive which appears to be in progress as I type.

 

[uselesslogin]

I'm still mostly doing nothing. If we are under $230 by close maybe I'll buy some shorter term options. I have March options I bought the first time we hit $240 and then $220. If things go bad I will probably buy June options next week or so. Mostly I'm looking forward to next year. Still, little things like stating how many P85Ds are on order or a high production run rate might make today the last time we ever see the $230s. I am certainly interested in this shareholder letter but of course I look forward to every letter because you never know what the latest news will be.

 

[chickensevil]

OK. Most of us are LONG TSLA, but as this is the Short Term Social chat........any predictions?

Close today: 248 (due to election and 5* crash rating)

AH close today: 235 ( I think we hit deliveries/just miss production ) EPS .01 (Elon said we would show a slight +)...but it will because of ZEV credits (not sure how market will react)

close tomorrow: $230 (FUDsters will hit hard)

long term: lots of good things coming ( ex: model X reveal/ beat 35K guidance; huge EPS Q4) $300 May 2015

Wild card...as always...EM CC: He could blow my predictions up big time......I hope he does. While I am sitting on cash to buy post ER, long term it will not matter if I buy in at 220 or 260.



edit: And, I am wrong out of the gait

Based on past history I think you have it backwards

It will be a drop today and then rise tomorrow. All the good ERs have traded flat to down on the day of the Earnings (before the evening announcement) and then it shoots up after hours never to return from whence it came! Given all the macro-low sentiment and the TSLA low sentiment I think it won't take much to be a surprise on the earnings and if we are lucky it will be a HUGE surprise