SolarCity (SCTY)

[Ulmo]

Bloomberg feature: Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is preparing Saudi Arabia for the end of oil.

Ooh, good article. I find this telling, and relevant to my pro-long-term-Tesla stance regarding morality and war, making USA more solvent by not having to spend as much on war:

Separately, Saudi Arabia’s religious police have been banned from making random arrests without assistance from other authorities. Attempts to liberalize could jeopardize the deal that the Al Saud family struck with Wahhabi fundamentalists two generations ago, but the sort of industries Prince Mohammed wants to lure to Saudi Arabia are unlikely to come to a country with major strictures on women. Today, no matter how much money there is in Riyadh, bankers and their families would rather stay in Dubai.

So, in other words, reducing dirty energy use (primarily oil with respect to Saudi Arabia) not only removes the heavy hand of demand to those states (which has caused a lot of war) but also brings in industry that isn't as comfortable with dirty morality. Tesla benefits the world in many ways, including clean air, clean morality, and solvency for countries that used to spend a lot on dirty morality (I'm thinking USA mostly). These effects are found in the high demand for Model 3, since people know, whether consciously or not, that these are intertwined. Unfortunately, I think most of these effects are already baked into the stock price of Tesla, but perhaps a little more happiness from USA government debt toward Tesla is unrealized due to these effects. Probably in a couple of years that might happen, and about a year from now the smart people will see whether it is coming.

What does this have to do with Solar? Well, solar is part of the solution, of course. But, everyone sees that now, and SCTY has stiff competition. Someone with better insight into SCTY can tell me how these interact.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Investing in 21st century energy infrastructure

Technologies are now available to do this. With modest federal investment, we could accelerate the pace of grid improvement. A perfect example of this is the Department of Energy’s recent work with the New Jersey transit system to create the NJ Transitgrid, which incorporates renewables, distributed generation and a microgrid design to assure power for NJ transit facilities during and after extreme weather events.

 

[jhm]

Tesla will install more energy storage with Solarcity in 2016 than the USA installed in 2015

I wonder if the master supply agreement includes special pricing for SolarCity.

 

[Johan]

Tesla will install more energy storage with Solarcity in 2016 than the USA installed in 2015

I wonder if the master supply agreement includes special pricing for SolarCity.

I see potential for good terms. And that's a severe understatement.

 

[30seconds]

Tesla will install more energy storage with Solarcity in 2016 than the USA installed in 2015

I wonder if the master supply agreement includes special pricing for SolarCity.

I think sometime early last year Elon said no special terms for SCTY. However they probably will get volume discounts which, given their volume, will give them the best price.

There are a whole set of SEC rules with regards to self-dealing (since Elon owns a substantial amount of both companies) that would be invoked if SCTY gets anything but standard pricing. This would be included in the accounting notes, so something to watch for.

 

[jhm]

I think sometime early last year Elon said no special terms for SCTY. However they probably will get volume discounts which, given their volume, will give them the best price.

There are a whole set of SEC rules with regards to self-dealing (since Elon owns a substantial amount of both companies) that would be invoked if SCTY gets anything but standard pricing. This would be included in the accounting notes, so something to watch for.

Right, thanks. So within compliance for related companies, it seems SolarCity could have locked in the $25k for Powerpacks prior to price increase to $47k. It would have been a fair deal at the time it was struck.

As this market gets going, high volume deals could become fairly common. A company like Encor who could use several GWH per year (if they get past the regulatory hoops).

 

[jhm]

Very nice price recovery from yesterday. Up 7%.

 

[colettimj]

Very nice price recovery from yesterday. Up 7%.

Perhaps some are realizing SCTY ≠ SUNE (er,... SUNEQ)

 

[gene]

I've been into SCTY since the IPO. Seems like every ER, I hold my shares expecting that "maybe this time" the stock price will go up with the ER, but as long as I can remember, it always dips. Thoughts anyone?

 

[Johan]

I've been into SCTY since the IPO. Seems like every ER, I hold my shares expecting that "maybe this time" the stock price will go up with the ER, but as long as I can remember, it always dips. Thoughts anyone?

Patience is a virtue.

Patience is bitter but its fruit is sweet.

Patience is the companion of wisdom.

Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Looks like we might see how badly they want a deal for their LNG exports as Obama is still threatening veto if they reduce clean energy funding.

E&W SET TO GET ITS WINGS: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has primed his chamber for a cloture vote on its fiscal 2017 energy and water spending bill today at 11 a.m. While the scheduled vote is on Sen. Lamar Alexander's substitute amendment, it signals that this year's rather undramatic bill is wrapping up. Once cloture is invoked on that substitute, it seems likely that lawmakers will forgo the 30 hours of debate and move to final passage fairly quickly, possibly later today.

Senate votes to increase wind energy funding

The amendment, from Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), would provide $95.4 million for the Department of Energy’s wind program, up from the $80 million in the bill proposed by Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Looks like we might see how badly they want a deal for their LNG exports as Obama is still threatening veto if they reduce clean energy funding.

This is my hope. That ITC extension was absolutely HUGE relative to the meager loss of allowing oil exports. Not a fan of LNG exports, especially since Philadelphia is trying to be the "Energy Hub" for this nonsense, but if it means a meaningful step in the transition to a renewable nation I'm all for it.

What I'm seeing in the bill thus far is insufficient.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've been into SCTY since the IPO. Seems like every ER, I hold my shares expecting that "maybe this time" the stock price will go up with the ER, but as long as I can remember, it always dips. Thoughts anyone?

I think there will be one more quarter of post-ER downswing. The current main role of SCTY stock is being a vehicle for price manipulation. "Solar" is still such an unclear concept to the wider consumer/investor that any small jolt can take the sector or a stock sharply downward, yet it holds such obvious growth potential that it will naturally drift up most days. This is prime territory for price manipulation via misinformation and that's what we see right now.

When that changes to a more rational means of valuation is anyone's guess. It could be May 9th, 2016 or as far out as late 2017. Greater regulatory certainty would definitely help people paint a clearer value picture in their minds. It's my opinion that once "the market" chooses to realize SCTY's future revenue streams from booked contracts as fully valid and collectable, it will zoom to a fair valuation very rapidly.

Edit to add: Not to mention that oil is about $6-10 higher than it should be right now. That alone could be the cause of the recent drift-up, and a drop back down for oil could bring major downward pressure for SCTY.

 

[doggusfluffy]

This is my hope. That ITC extension was absolutely HUGE relative to the meager loss of allowing oil exports. Not a fan of LNG exports, especially since Philadelphia is trying to be the "Energy Hub" for this nonsense, but if it means a meaningful step in the transition to a renewable nation I'm all for it.

What I'm seeing in the bill thus far is insufficient.

Compared to this energy hub. Shouldn't SolarCity revise guidance to include some new growth models with upcoming market certainty?

New York City launches Solarize program 350 MW of new distributed solar by 2025

Solarize is a national movement that began in Portland, Oregon, in 2009. It aggregates a community’s solar customers through a process of outreach that opens the opportunity for a specific and limited time. The community leverages its gathered customer volume to obtain the lowest priced solar through competitive bidding by participating installers.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Compared to this energy hub. Shouldn't SolarCity revise guidance to include some new growth models with upcoming market certainty?

New York City launches Solarize program 350 MW of new distributed solar by 2025

Funny you should bring up Solarize programs. I actually sat on the phone bitching out a SCTY service rep for about 20 minutes on this about a month or so ago. There's a Solarize going on in the Philly suburbs as well and SolarCity for some reason declined to participate, even at full retail price. This program will see a good 100 installs of semi-early adopters and not one of them will have heard squat directly from SCTY regarding their PPA value proposition.

I was at well-attended community meetings where the Soalrize presenters brought up zero-down PPAs in a transparent manner and folks really perked up at the notion, but the project had no PPA option(SCTY or otherwise) within this particular offering so it was just glossed over in the presentation. Grrrrrrrrr

Horrendous slip-up in my opinion and one of the major downsides of having a sales entity functioning out on an island. SCTY has some kind of online component attached to their ambassador program from community-based initiatives that I assume is trying to simulate Solarize within their world, but that's not gonna fly in the end. People want info presented from an independent 3rd party like a friend, neighbor or non-profit Solarize group.

It'll be interesting to see how SCTY wedges themselves into this Solarize NYC project. Considering how involved they are with NY state, I assume they will have a central role as main PPA option provider. I would HOPE so anyway.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Anyone have any thoughts about Solar City's chart? The range is getting fairly tight. The only thing that seems to be keeping SolarCity below $35 is the gap from $35 to $56.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

FSLR down 6% after posting what I assume is mediocre earnings. If the past is any indication, perhaps this is a good indication for SCTY's reactions to earnings on May 9. Every quarter these guys seem to move in opposite directions for very rational reasons.

 

[Bgarret]

Excellent analysis of distributed solar grades by state and recommendations for policy changes to encourage greater adoption of rooftop solar. Good read.

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/..._sustainability/energy/pdfs/ThrowingShade.pdf

 

[MikeC]

Short interest pretty much unchanged from two weeks ago - still 23M.

SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) Short Interest

 

[dakh]

Earnings Release and Conference Call Scheduled for May 9