SolarCity (SCTY)

[Johan]

They haven't made any production panels yet.

20% efficiency is expected to be common in 2017.

They wouldn't be talking about "a world record" at this point if they didn't have nervous investors.

Welcome back. That said don't be such a Debbie Downer. They will go in to production this year. Ramping takes time, but that's no different than potential competitors. It's best to be first, right? It's best to produce a low volume of the most efficient panels than none of them, right?

 

[jhm]

20% efficiency is expected to be common in 2017.

And this would be a good thing. They'll need 22% efficiency panels to be cheap (under 55c/W) and widely available. In 2017, they will be installing 2 to 3 times as much as the Riverbend plant can produce. Who's going to fill the gap.

So SolarCity really needs the whole supply chain to keep up with it. So part of the value of announcing this now is to signal those expectations to all potential suppliers. This is what it's going to take to earn SolarCity's business in 2017.

 

[SBenson]

Love you electracity.

They haven't made any production panels yet.

This is same as Tesla making a big splash with non (or semi) production cars. We show the same love to SolarCity here.

20% efficiency is expected to be common in 2017.

Sources?

They wouldn't be talking about "a world record" at this point if they didn't have nervous investors.

Thanks for the speculation. But no thanks.

jhm bought a bunch of shares today. I bought at 41.5 recently and have a limit order in at 35. Sell it hard. I will be happy to take the other side.

 

[mostapasta]

They haven't made any production panels yet.

"SolarCity will begin producing the first modules in small quantities this month"

 

[SBenson]

“It’s the best rooftop module in the world and it’s made in the U.S.,” Rive said. The current efficiency rating is just the start, he said. “We’ve got a lot of improvements under way.”

This is from

SolarCity's First Panels Convert More Sun Than Industry's Best - Bloomberg Business

 

[Johan]

Electricity's criticism is the same as Porsche CEO saying "we could build a better car than Tesla if we wanted to. And maybe we will in 5 years".

In my native tongue I'd say "too much talking, too little hockey".

 

[SBenson]

From twitter #InsideEnergy

China's new carbon cap and trade will take up a lot of solar PV, so domestic production key, explains @elonmusk #InsideEnergy

- - - Updated - - -

Another

.@elonmusk on $SCTY's Silevo & $TSLA battery factory: ensures supply and gives leverage over partner suppliers

 

[Foghat]

From twitter #InsideEnergy



- - - Updated - - -

Another

Elon just said the gigafactory now has a certificate of occupancy. May the energy storage ramp begin!

 

[SBenson]

Another

Elon Musk: Long term, batteries transformational for #PV. Near term, net metering to remain important to US market #InsideEnergy @solarcity

- - - Updated - - -

As happy with SolarCity as always

Musk: for @SolarCity, I only show up to hear the good news. #InsideEnergy

- - - Updated - - -

Just a side topic. I wonder what shorts think when Musk talks about Mars and stuff? Do they think his Tesla, SolarCity ideas are equally esoteric? Just a weird guy talking weird stuff. Short him!

@electracity, any ideas?

- - - Updated - - -

Another item to the side topic

Musk vision: 2 tiny pulsing suns (fusion nukes) over poles of Mars. "Big by our standards, small by galactic standards." #InsideEnergy

- - - Updated - - -

As I wonder many things in life. I miss those debates between folks who were SPWR fans and SCTY fans. I wonder if SPWR fans will gradually convert into SCTY club with all these developments.

- - - Updated - - -

So in 2017 when the rest of the industry will be crumbling, SolarCity is set to have a smooth sail. There will be a lot of consolidation. I expect SolarCity to buy up a lot of local players. 2017 will really be the year of growth for SolarCity. This is exact opposite of what market fears.

Lyndon now saying the same thing:

.@solarcity CEO Lyndon Rive: ITC drop to 10% in 2017 would result in "massive shakeup" for US solar industry. #InsideEnergy

- - - Updated - - -

From Lyndon

Utility business model "forces them to fight us," says @solarcity CEO. "I don't think they want to," but they have no choice. #InsideEnergy

New York, California, and Hawaii are leading the way in reinventing the grid to find models for both utilities and disrupters #InsideEnergy

- - - Updated - - -

This doesn't seem to quite sit well with the above two quotes. But whatever, if Lyndon is saying it, that gotta be true. Maybe just different contexts. Or maybe there is an inter-link.

Microgrids are a postcard from the future explains Lyndon Rive #InsideEnergy

 

[Foghat]

Another



- - - Updated - - -

As happy with SolarCity as always



- - - Updated - - -

Just a side topic. I wonder what shorts think when Musk talks about Mars and stuff? Do they think his Tesla, SolarCity ideas are equally esoteric? Just a weird guy talking weird stuff. Short him!

@electracity, any ideas?

- - - Updated - - -

Another item to the side topic



- - - Updated - - -

As I wonder many things in life. I miss those debates between folks who were SPWR fans and SCTY fans. I wonder if SPWR fans will gradually convert into SCTY club with all these developments.

- - - Updated - - -



Lyndon now saying the same thing:



- - - Updated - - -

From Lyndon







- - - Updated - - -

This doesn't seem to quite sit well with the above two quotes. But whatever, if Lyndon is saying it, that gotta be true. Maybe just different contexts. Or maybe there is an inter-link.

lyndon said he's more optimistic then ever the ITC will be EXTENDED.

Microgrid are an international statement. Secondly, he is also alluding to aggregation of Solarcity systems in essentially microgrids where they do not require a central system as back up.

He said utilities are fine to enter the market so long as they start up a non regulated business that's not using the regulated rate base to pay for installations.

 

[jhm]

Elon Muskanel suppliers were 'asymptoting' on efficiency. So we got into the panel business. I like counter-intuitive moves. #InsideEnergy

By "asymptoting" I believe that Musk means that efficiency was converging to a long run stable limit. It was necessary to penetrate that limit to keep the industry from plateauing. So this move to Silevo and high efficiency panels was all about pushing suppliers to step up on efficiency technology and not just iterate on diving down manufacturing costs. And yes, China needs all the panels they can make, so there is also a capacity need.

 

[SBenson]

- - - Updated - - -

I think that's it folks. Well, that was fun copy-pasting all that good stuff. I should find a job like that.

 

[jhm]

View attachment 96424

- - - Updated - - -

I think that's it folks. Well, that was fun copy-pasting all that good stuff. I should find a job like that.

Great job! Thanks for keeping us posted. This is all very exciting.

 

[Foghat]

By "asymptoting" I believe that Musk means that efficiency was converging to a long run stable limit. It was necessary to penetrate that limit to keep the industry from plateauing. So this move to Silevo and high efficiency panels was all about pushing suppliers to step up on efficiency technology and not just iterate on diving down manufacturing costs. And yes, China needs all the panels they can make, so there is also a capacity need.

remember just as the tesla electric car is complete advancement break away from plateauing ice, so is gallium nitride for plateauing silicon based pv production. It is my belief when Lyndon rive is quoted in Bloomberg as saying Solarcity "is only at the beginning" of its efficiency advancement, that gallium nitride based production is the next big leap beyond anything traditional manufacturers are working on. Added to which, tesla also will be developing gallium nitride to its inverters and other parts of the vehicle systems. Not to mention the implications to spacex and spacex satellites. The synergies alone are a massive competitive advantage for many years to come for Solarcity.

this is only the beginning

 

[jhm]

The price action today is incredible, and SolarCity will ring the closing bell.

My impression is that long-term investors are digesting this news and buying in. SolarCity is taking a serious technology lead. This is rational longterm investing, not momentum trading or shorts in a panic, not yet at least.

 

[hershey101]

The price action today is incredible, and SolarCity will ring the closing bell.

I'm not sure what you are looking at but its up just 5% and tracking the general markets in a rally from -300 pts at open to +50... Not very impressive.

 

[jhm]

SolarCity is up 4%, but SunPower is also up 3.3% too. I own both. My impression is that the Silevo efficiency announcement is also good for SunPower. It validates their effort to bring higher efficiency panels to market. SolarCity will not be selling their panels wholesale. So installers that want to compete with SolarCity where high efficiency matters will have to buy from SunPower. Friendly competition is a really good thing for the whole industry.

 

[winfield100]

From twitter #InsideEnergy






- - - Updated - - -

Another

china consumption per year of PV in terawatt hours, 2010 to 2014 ( 5 years)

0.9

2.6

6.4

15.5

29.1

doubling or almost doubling every year for 5 years (15.7% of planetary production)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Done buying insane 2017/2018 calls for leverage, feel like I got some pretty good bargains over the last two weeks. Bought shares just now and am gonna sit for the long term, hopefully turning these options profits into shares in 15 months. Wish I had given more thought to what today's announcement would be, could have just bought shares at the bell.

One that note, I feel like myself or anyone from this board could have articulated SCTY value much better than Lyndon last night on CNBC. Let the engineer geniuses do their work and send some PR guy next time.

The value to everyday consumers of panels made in the US by a reliable company that isn't going to disappear cannot be overestimated. My hope is the SolarCity lease and sale products start selling themselves and we can knock the soft costs down, do not like all this advertising.

If you want to see what SCTY will be doing at the stepdown of ITC, just look at the pace of installs in Germany when they stepped down the feed in tariff at years end a few years back. I think they installed something like 3GW in ONE MONTH one the eve of one of those stepdowns. I expect this stock to explode on the convergence of the stepdown, shorts being squeezed and new state support like we'll see in PA as soon as the new budget's signed and rebates are put back in place.

SCTY........from here to the moon!
(or perhaps Mars?)

 

[electracity]

Welcome back. That said don't be such a Debbie Downer. They will go in to production this year. Ramping takes time, but that's no different than potential competitors. It's best to be first, right? It's best to produce a low volume of the most efficient panels than none of them, right?

Panels to fall in price to $US0.50/watt

Deutsche Bank says that while overhangs like trade cases or minimum price agreements could cloud the near term, market inefficiencies will be worked out over the long term and the clearing price will reach $0.50 or lower within the next several years.
Companies like SunEdison have publically targeted $0.40 cent per watt panels by the end of 2016, and many Tier 1 Chinese manufacturers are achieving sub $0.50/w already in 2014. :Given that most manufacturers are improving 1-2 cents per quarter, less than ten cents improvement (to reach $0.40) over the next 12 quarters is likely conservative.
If panels are sold at a 10 cent gross margin for a total cost of $0.50/w, manufacturers would achieve 20% gross margin – well above recent historic averages. Furthermore, transportation costs and ‘soft costs’ which inefficiently raise the price of panels should gradually improve as governments work through trade issues

Solar Costs Will Fall Another 40% In 2 Years. Heres Why.