SolarCity (SCTY)

[SBenson]

Got the word that Republicans in House are also inclined to do a deal. So all stars are aligned. ITC extension looks pretty solidly possible.

 

[dakh]

Yes I'm sitting on some of 17 and 18 options as well, so that probably colors my opinion. Agreed, SCTY is likely going to continue to excel in execution vs. peers, ITC extension or not. Given that this business is so sensitive to regulatory environment (local, national, international) I think it's a bit of a long shot to say that regulatory headwinds would be a good thing for SCTY or its investors, long or short term. Your thesis is it'll delay growth and possibly increase eventual market share. Even if that's true it'll have to go against opportunity cost for your capital, other regulatory environment changes that might or might not align with what SCTY is doing at the time (basically, luck), possibility of technology shakeups, etc.

 

[Foghat]

Working as a Utility Solar Power Inspector, I was given financial data as well as technical data. Specifically, panel and inverter technical data as well as cost data. With commercial customers paying 30 to 40 percent of their bills for demand charging, SolarCity has a strong profit margin. Generating power and storing it to energy storage systems (batteries) will allow customers to manage their own energy requirements. Make no mistake, SolarCity is going to make a tremendous amount of money.

Why would anyone listen to what you have to say?

 

[Jack6591]

Why would anyone listen to what you have to say?

I completely agree. I simply view solar power from the perspective of an electrician. I do no not possess any training nor experience in subtlies of bean counting. No one should ever consider my opinion regarding securities.

 

[blakegallagher]

On ITC I think Sentate is in the bag. Obama is too. Just now read that House democrats are signing up to it. Only ones left are House republicans.

This really looks like it's a done deal.

Massive, massive short squeeze will ensue.

- - - Updated - - -

Short interest is so high that people are paying 60+% interest to short SCTY as per Interactive Brokers. Early last week it even reached 74.1%.

If ITC extension comes through, I can't imagine the scramble to close the positions.

Is that 70 percent on a yearly basis?

 

[SBenson]

Is that 70 percent on a yearly basis?

Yes, yearly. Still it is exceptionally high. I saw similar rates for TSLA in early 2013.

For the record I bought SCTY with both fists today. Fingers crossed, ITC extension will pass in two days.

 

[imajin]

Yes, yearly. Still it is exceptionally high. I saw similar rates for TSLA in early 2013.

For the record I bought SCTY with both fists today. Fingers crossed, ITC extension will pass in two days.

Interesting how three major events are all taking place in the next two days:

analyst day
itc extension
fed announcement

for those with options they're looking to cash in on, tomorrow would be a mighty nice day to have that happen.

 

[Jack6591]

Interesting how three major events are all taking place in the next two days:

analyst day
itc extension
fed announcement

for those with options they're looking to cash in on, tomorrow would be a mighty nice day to have that happen.

Wouldn't you think Yellen's announcement is baked in?
Where are we at in the witching cycle?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Interesting how three major events are all taking place in the next two days:

analyst day
itc extension
fed announcement

for those with options they're looking to cash in on, tomorrow would be a mighty nice day to have that happen.

It's the third Friday so a **** ton of puts expire.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I have zero stock market expertise, unless you count an uncanny knack for losing money. :wink:

I'm hoping you guys figure out if it's squeezing or how much more is coming this week. I would love to see a video tour of the 100MW line and also what these new HE panels look like too.

More Australian Tesla Powerwall re-sellers named, including CSR | One Step Off The Grid

Williams also told OneStep that he believed that both the market and the technology were at the crucial point where customers could potentially be offered a zero deal offer on a solar plus storage system using the Tesla Powerwall.

“With the right set up, (such a deal could) see the customer be cash-flow positive immediately and own the system outright within seven years,” Williams said.

 

[jhm]

Wouldn't you think Yellen's announcement is baked in?
Where are we at in the witching cycle?

How could they raise rates now in the midst of an oil crash. Isn't low interest rates what you need for a massive oversupply problem? Oh wait...nevermind.

 

[gene]

For the record I bought SCTY with both fists today. Fingers crossed, ITC extension will pass in two days.

Mr. Benson, I hope you are able to regain your losses. Like you I had some severe losses on 5,500 shares (I think you had more), I did some averaging down by buying at $25 bringing my average down to $40. So, for the moment I am thankfully a little in the green! Whew, that was stressful waiting. Best of luck to you, I think you'll make gains and come out of this OK.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So last count of short interest was 32M shares or a whopping 64.45% of float. Any way to track short interest between the periodic updates?

 

[SBenson]

Apparently tax text to come out today. We will soon see what the tax credits for Solar are and for how long. Voting in House mostly on Thursday. I think between both parties, there are more than enough votes in both House and Senate. Democrats have been playing hardball trying to get all all sorts of unrelated concessions (Eg: indexing of child tax credit, etc). Hope they maintain some level of focus and get this through.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Chinese Solar Makers Bid Wall Street Goodbye Amid Sliding ADRs - Bloomberg Business

The moves show the frustration of a solar industry dominated by Chinese companies that have seen shares underperform U.S. peers even with rising profits and sky-high growth forecasts. China’s solar entrepreneurs, after raising billions selling shares on Wall Street, may be deciding the best course now is a strategic retreat, taking the companies private while stocks are cheap.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see further scenarios” like the Trina and JA Solar buyouts, said Angelo Zino, a New York-based analyst at S&P Capital IQ. “The market isn’t properly valuing these securities.”

 

[SBenson]

Mr. Benson, I hope you are able to regain your losses. Like you I had some severe losses on 5,500 shares (I think you had more), I did some averaging down by buying at $25 bringing my average down to $40. So, for the moment I am thankfully a little in the green! Whew, that was stressful waiting. Best of luck to you, I think you'll make gains and come out of this OK.

Thanks Gene, best of luck for you too. I have been doing the opposite of every wise investor, selling low and buying high. In any case, I don't regret my decisions. In my view, I did the right thing at each of the circumstances. I still believe barring an ITC SolarCity's future is very clouded. Fingers crossed, hope this ITC extension comes through. The discussion will change from survivability to 100% growth rates, 1million targets, 'reckless growth', gigafactories, to blind-faith-price-targets (when will we hit $400 again?). Exciting times.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Thanks Gene, best of luck for you too. I have been doing the opposite of every wise investor, selling low and buying high. In any case, I don't regret my decisions. In my view, I did the right thing at each of the circumstances. I still believe barring an ITC SolarCity's future is very clouded. Fingers crossed, hope this ITC extension comes through. The discussion will change from survivability to 100% growth rates, 1million targets, 'reckless growth', gigafactories, to blind-faith-price-targets (when will we hit $400 again?). Exciting times.

This was in the Politico morning energy blurb regarding ITC:

The choke points: Each of the Democratic asks, however, contain minefields for portions of the GOP that make a final accord on oil exports still very much in question. Five years is looking like a sweet spot for the wind and solar tax-benefit extension, but House Natural Resources Chairman Rob Bishop told POLITICO on Friday that he wants to see no more than a two-year re-up of LWCF while he pushes for broader, contentious reforms to the program. Then there’s the refiner assistance provisions — most likely an increase to the manufacturing tax credit that independent crude processors can claim — which run the risk of arousing conservative ire for appearing like an earmark, as well as alienating refiners in other regions by providing for the benefit for northeastern companies.

Hanging in the balance: A Democratic aide told ME there was weekend “progress” in budget talks, “but significant issues remain.” By the end of today, it should be clear whether Republicans are willing to give in to Democrats in order to take down the ban, or whether leadership will have to default to Plan B, a two-year and smaller-scale tax package that leaves the oil industry without a crucial vehicle for its exports push. If the Capitol moves to that fallback position, riders could rear their head back into the debate over how to keep the government open after current funding expires Wednesday night.

 

[SBenson]

So last count of short interest was 32M shares or a whopping 64.45% of float. Any way to track short interest between the periodic updates?

Now that I am on the long side, I guess we are buddies again??

Yeah, the short interest as per NASDAQ is 32.1 Mil shares as of Nov 30. I see the float as 60.8Mil. So it's 52.83% of float.

There are a few different ways to see trends but nothing to give exact numbers.

The simplest way is to look at Interactive Brokers (IB) tool called Short Stock Availability tool. It gives you the current rebate rate (the interest charged for shorting) as well as a brief history. If the interest is going up, there is increased shorting activity. I see that the rate peaked out on Dec 7 at 74.1%. Currently it is at 61.6%. To give context, for example TSLA's current rebate rate is 0.89%. So the rate reach these ridiculous 50% plus, when shorts are expecting an imminent business failure and are desperate to cash it in. On the contrary if there is a material positive news it creates a massive stampede and a huge price spike.

If you have access to professional tools like Bloomberg terminal, you can see survey data like Markit. It's not perfect but gives you a sense of trends. They release data on a two day ago basis. Maybe there are other ways to see Markit data than through a Bloomberg terminal.

From what I understand the rebate rate published by IB is for new shorts. For existing shorts it's usually a much lower rate. There is a firm called S3, which releases their Blacklight information on a real time basis. This I believe is the aggregation of all short rebate rates (or atleast the ones they have access to). As per S3 BLACKLIGHT, the rate is going up even now, it didn't peak out yet.

All in all, there will be a *tremendous* amount of short covering if ITC comes through. I expect a massive spike in price.

 

[gigglehertz]

So last count of short interest was 32M shares or a whopping 64.45% of float. Any way to track short interest between the periodic updates?

http://www.shortanalytics.com/

Currently 33%

 

[SBenson]

This was in the Politico morning energy blurb regarding ITC:

To me much of that appears to be outdated. Looks like Politico has connections only at the fringes. The discussions are moving very rapidly. House Democrats and subsequently Republicans already gave in. The Senators are crafting the deal and it's been pretty bi-partisan. Pretty sure White House is positive as well. We are well beyond the 50% probability of a pass now. At least that's my understanding of the situation.