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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
On ITC I think Sentate is in the bag. Obama is too. Just now read that House democrats are signing up to it. Only ones left are House republicans.
This really looks like it's a done deal.
Massive, massive short squeeze will ensue.
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Short interest is so high that people are paying 60+% interest to short SCTY as per Interactive Brokers. Early last week it even reached 74.1%.
If ITC extension comes through, I can't imagine the scramble to close the positions.
This really looks like it's a done deal.
Massive, massive short squeeze will ensue.
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Short interest is so high that people are paying 60+% interest to short SCTY as per Interactive Brokers. Early last week it even reached 74.1%.
If ITC extension comes through, I can't imagine the scramble to close the positions.
Geez wish I had bought something substantial under $30. Though I am still in the camp of not understanding these financials and basically only investing a small amount because it is solar and Elon is involved. May the X bring similar returns to TSLA next year.
Weren't you saying that management was misleading in the financials just a couple weeks ago?
They are. They will continue to do so.
With a very rich 30% ITC it doesn't matter. SCTY will be profitable even if you account everything properly.
Without ITC I am not sure the firm has a workable model if you look at the financials correctly. But with ITC, hell yeah, they have an absolutely workable model.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We should probably wait until ITC extension is signed and digested, but anyone care to venture a guess of when we crack $100?
I'm hoping we cross $100 on the way to $120 after 2Q16 earnings are announced in July or August of next year. Might be a better bet to say post-election.
I'm hoping we cross $100 on the way to $120 after 2Q16 earnings are announced in July or August of next year. Might be a better bet to say post-election.
Working as a Utility Solar Power Inspector, I was given financial data as well as technical data. Specifically, panel and inverter technical data as well as cost data. With commercial customers paying 30 to 40 percent of their bills for demand charging, SolarCity has a strong profit margin. Generating power and storing it to energy storage systems (batteries) will allow customers to manage their own energy requirements. Make no mistake, SolarCity is going to make a tremendous amount of money.
MartinAustin
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
It's the ITC extension, has to be. Or maybe someone got a sneak peek at tomorrow's Investor Day announcements? I don't buy into the idea that SCTY(and therefore US solar in total) is ITC dependent, but in the short term it locks in a huge advantage for SCTY as they are a premium installer with higher install costs.
Solar is happening, there's nothing that can stop that now.
SolarCity's model is popular with normal consumers and should only get more profitable as costs are lowered drastically.
Add a free 30% check onto that and.....
Solar is happening, there's nothing that can stop that now.
SolarCity's model is popular with normal consumers and should only get more profitable as costs are lowered drastically.
Add a free 30% check onto that and.....
Sure SCTY is up on anticipation of the ITC but if it doesn't go through we'll be back to mid 20's. If ITC happens I'd be simply rebalancing into TSLA, if it doesn't I'll be adding to SCTY at bargain prices, either way is good with me but I sure prefer the former 
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Sure SCTY is up on anticipation of the ITC but if it doesn't go through we'll be back to mid 20's. If ITC happens I'd be simply rebalancing into TSLA, if it doesn't I'll be adding to SCTY at bargain prices, either way is good with me but I sure prefer the former
All ITC does is make liftoff easy. If they left it as is, SCTY would still be the leader and likely end up taking more share than if there's extension. Now the profits would be considerably less in the short term, but when you're talking about the single biggest source for new energy you might actually want to swap that short term boost for the advantage of being top dog in a brutal marketplace.
If you didn't care about the stock SCTY price, you'd actually prefer a more rapid ITC stepdown as it could kill off most everyone except local installers.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Looks like this was a misprint. DB lowered from $80 to $64, not the other way around.
Shouldn't take news from something called Dakota Financial News.
There's also the outcome where nobody makes any money, big or small. Ever wanted to own a gas station? I'll take ITC extension any day since the second scenario is IMHO a lot riskier.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Gas stations make no money because they're nothing more than a bucket for a commodity. SCTY sells a highly differentiated product.
Riskier in what way? For us as investors it might go either way, depending on when and how we want to make money.
What happens if they cancel the ITC tomorrow and pledge to never give another penny of subsidy to solar? Does Elon pack it in and give up on solar? Much more likely that the industry has a massive shakeout, there's huge short term pain for a year or two, and SCTY comes out the other end with more quality employees and much greater marketshare. Then they can start worrying about profit margin. As a guy sitting on tons of Jan 2017&18 calls I sure as hell hope that doesn't happen, but SCTY is really "better off" the tougher things get.
How much is each point of 2020 US marketshare worth? Probably a lot more than SCTY will make over the next two years. Solar hardware is cheap and demand will never disappear.
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