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May bode well for SCTY tomorrow as far as investor's confidence in various Musk enterprises.
arondaniel
Il Sessanta Caricato
My only concern with buying 2018 leaps at current prices(besides actually finding the money to do so)
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Not a lot of concern? The market cap is below even the most pessimistic estimate of retained value, what more concern could be shown? This stock is priced at an existential probability of 50/50.
As a guy looking for leverage this is a majorly disappointing week. Shares priced to nothing and the 2018 LEAPs are still pricing as if we're at $30. Will wait as long as it takes for them to reprice to a rational level and snatch up a few shares along the way as I find money in the sofa cushions.
I have had some lucky insight into a local southeast PA group residential solar initiative and have some interesting SCTY conversation points for us to discuss regarding cost cutting. Will wait til things cool down and bring it up next week.
As a guy looking for leverage this is a majorly disappointing week. Shares priced to nothing and the 2018 LEAPs are still pricing as if we're at $30. Will wait as long as it takes for them to reprice to a rational level and snatch up a few shares along the way as I find money in the sofa cushions.
I have had some lucky insight into a local southeast PA group residential solar initiative and have some interesting SCTY conversation points for us to discuss regarding cost cutting. Will wait til things cool down and bring it up next week.
You mean other than every SCTY earnings call?
There are a only a limited number of finance-challenged solar buyers. Which is why they are raising prices $.0075/kWh. They can close the increasingly limited number of suckers at a higher price. The majority they have no chance to close.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Just to add some perspective, SCTY announced what....$650M in booked revenue(they say $890M in"gross value") for a terrible 4Q15? If they're on pace for a weak 1Q yet a 1.25GW 2016, what kind of numbers should be applied to 2Q&3Q16? $1B each? More? $3B combined? More?
How can we care so much about he sales cost? Shouldn't we actually be extrapolating this income at 50% growth as sales costs dwindle to nearly nothing as they did in Germany and logically should do everywhere? This idea that PPA is unpalatable and straight installs will take over is absurd. I can assure you that local installers in the relatively new market of SE PA are paying just as much in sales cost and are landing at $3/W barely making a profit. Are we saying that will last forever?
What if revenue and marketshare trends are maintained for all of 2016, cash-flow positive is achieved and sales costs are clearly seen to drop? All the algorithms flip and all that retained value then instantly counts for something. Hopefully I'm not deluding myself, but that's what it feels like.
Essentially I'm saying SBenson has been right. Until an algorithm can see some trend toward a sustainable model nothing else matters, revenue never makes it anywhere because it's fully negated elsewhere.
Buy low, sell high.
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If you have something of substance to add feel free to do so, but please don't just spray nonsense indiscriminately.
How can we care so much about he sales cost? Shouldn't we actually be extrapolating this income at 50% growth as sales costs dwindle to nearly nothing as they did in Germany and logically should do everywhere? This idea that PPA is unpalatable and straight installs will take over is absurd. I can assure you that local installers in the relatively new market of SE PA are paying just as much in sales cost and are landing at $3/W barely making a profit. Are we saying that will last forever?
What if revenue and marketshare trends are maintained for all of 2016, cash-flow positive is achieved and sales costs are clearly seen to drop? All the algorithms flip and all that retained value then instantly counts for something. Hopefully I'm not deluding myself, but that's what it feels like.
Essentially I'm saying SBenson has been right. Until an algorithm can see some trend toward a sustainable model nothing else matters, revenue never makes it anywhere because it's fully negated elsewhere.
Buy low, sell high.
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99% of SCTY buyers are 740+ credit rating, this has been well established. I'm sure half of them could buy panels a few times over with cash if they wanted to do so, they would rather pay a premium for not having to worry about it.
If you have something of substance to add feel free to do so, but please don't just spray nonsense indiscriminately.
Yes, that is how business without significant IP or barriers to entry work.
Why First Solar and SunPower Are Winning in Solar -- The Motley Fool
"The big revelation after third quarter 2015 earnings were released was that residential solar was not the natural growth market it was made out to be. SolarCity spent 60% more per watt to acquire customers in Q3 2015 than they did in Q3 2013 ($0.64 to $0.40), a trend that could be seen in all residential solar installers."
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Ugh. SCTY has a unique product that can turn a consumer's carbon footprint negative and costs them negative dollars, logic states they will not need 80% of the sales effort in the long run. That's like saying people aren't interested in saving money or climate change, I think there's a market there. Check out average sales costs for Germany who is 3-6 years ahead of us.
We all know why FSLR is doing better than SCTY, they make all their revenue now while SCTY has nearly all it's revenue deferred while all cost is up front.
As I mentioned, if you want to add something please do so. We've covered all these old points dozens of times way back in this thread in far greater detail.
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Pretty good article. Pretty bizrre that this question would even be asked when SolarCity is ALWAYS priced lower than the grid. If SCTY is ripping people off, then what are the utilites doing?
6% discount rate. Please tell me where I can invest $15K at 6%
6% loan rate - Well under 5% is available most places for people with high FICO
But the biggest problem with using this link in support of solarcity from an investor perspective is that you can't have it both ways. Solarcity simply can't be creating good retained earnings while simultaneously being a good value compared to a purchased system.
Installing commodity equipment that produces a commodity has never created a long term business with high volumes and good margins.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's the biggest problem you found in this article? How about the assumption of grid prices increasing at .5% annual for 20 years? LOL!
They've gone up 3% annually over the last 10 years and that's on the back of free lending, all-time low commodity prices, AND not yet having to deal with solar absolutely destroying your revenue stream. It amazes me that people read this things and don't stop dead that their "assumptions". Put out a dashboard with this article and it's torn apart in 10 seconds.
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