Just trying to do some math and figure out what the time frame would be for a delivery of a Cybertruck if a deposit was placed today assuming an early 23 rollout and production a little better than the Model Y.
Based on the Model Y release, they rolled out about 10K in the last quarter of launch in 2020 before ramping up to approximately 40k per quarter in 2021 and topping that in 2022. So assuming they can actually launch in Q1 2023 with at least a few cars, and hit similar (although realistically I'd hope they got a little better at production by then) production of 40-50k per quarter in 2023, we could potentially see 150-200K cars by end 2023.
I believe I've read there are nearly 1.2m deposits placed already.
Any guesses assuming these numbers are correct based on Model Y or other facts on when a deposit placed today could get delivered? I think its realistic to expect 50+% of deposits to get canceled given time, life and most relevant a price jump of maybe 25% from initial estimates.
My Model Y lease comes up in Jan 24. Assuming my numbers above are realistic, and if Tesla can hit an early 23 release and gear up production consistent with the Y, doesn't look like I can make it it time. Thoughts?
Based on the Model Y release, they rolled out about 10K in the last quarter of launch in 2020 before ramping up to approximately 40k per quarter in 2021 and topping that in 2022. So assuming they can actually launch in Q1 2023 with at least a few cars, and hit similar (although realistically I'd hope they got a little better at production by then) production of 40-50k per quarter in 2023, we could potentially see 150-200K cars by end 2023.
I believe I've read there are nearly 1.2m deposits placed already.
Any guesses assuming these numbers are correct based on Model Y or other facts on when a deposit placed today could get delivered? I think its realistic to expect 50+% of deposits to get canceled given time, life and most relevant a price jump of maybe 25% from initial estimates.
My Model Y lease comes up in Jan 24. Assuming my numbers above are realistic, and if Tesla can hit an early 23 release and gear up production consistent with the Y, doesn't look like I can make it it time. Thoughts?