Speculation on Bolt sales and M3

[igotzzoom]

Everyone wants Civic and Camry owners to consider the Bolt, but I don't think that's going to be the case. I also think that the lack of access to a nationwide fast charging network is going to heavily limit Bolt adoption. Not necessarily in the first year...but not long after.

I have heard anecdotally a lot of buyers (or leasers) of short-range EVs saying they wouldn't buy another, and will probably go back to an ICE. Not so much the Volt, since it kind of bridges the gap between ICEs and EVs. I imagine one of the frustrations is the charging infrastructure (or lack thereof). This will definitely be an issue for some buyers. I plan on purchasing a portable Level 2 charger and a set of adapters if I get a Bolt. I consider it part of the adventure. But I would think a lot of customers would not be as forgiving or adaptable.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I have heard anecdotally a lot of buyers (or leasers) of short-range EVs saying they wouldn't buy another, and will probably go back to an ICE. Not so much the Volt, since it kind of bridges the gap between ICEs and EVs. I imagine one of the frustrations is the charging infrastructure (or lack thereof). This will definitely be an issue for some buyers. I plan on purchasing a portable Level 2 charger and a set of adapters if I get a Bolt. I consider it part of the adventure. But I would think a lot of customers would not be as forgiving or adaptable.

My anecdotal evidence doesn't support that. From those that I know, EV driving is a drug, and they've already researched away any range issues they might've had. If they had any significant doubts about range, they wouldn't have "risked" it. Everyone who leases an EV, did so with the expectation of getting a model 3 or other long-range EV, not for range anxiety. I feel safe in assuming this would apply to the current generation of EV owners (leaf, i3, e-golf, etc).

Are you relying on the edmunds.com survey perchance? I've been wondering about their statistics. They didn't break down whether their "ev" was a full EV, or a hybrid, or a plug-in hybrid like the PiP. If it's as inclusive as that, then there's a serious flaw in including the PiP and any other such short-range EV's, as their driving characteristics and fuel savings aren't the same.

 

[electracity]

I can see some lessors with EVs going back to ICE. Fiat at one point had an ultra cheap lease in California. Many people were smart enough to pick up the almost free Fiat.

Edit: It was 2014, Fiat 500e, $1000 down, $199 for 39 months.

When that lease is up I'm sure some of these people will go back to ICE. It would be interesting to track the exact vehicles these owners choose next.

 

[igotzzoom]

No. It was based on a conversation with friend whose coworker bought a Fiat 500e. From what he told me, the car ate through tires at a rapid pace, they had to have electrical work done at their home to install a Level 2 charger, and generally-speaking, they didn't feel it was worth the investment. I think there are two groups of customers out there for EVs. Those that buy and drive them strictly for financial reasons, and those that buy them for philosophical or, "religious" reasons, if you will.

I fully understand that there will be a higher upfront cost in purchasing an EV. I'm perhaps not quite as fanatical as some on this forum, but I do see the strategic significance and importance of the electrification of transportation in the U.S. and globally, and want to be part of it. I'm already planning on budgeting as much as $2,000 for a home Level 2 EVSE and associated electrical upgrades. I don't know if solar is worth it in our current situation, since we live in a townhouse, and have to contend with a sometimes obstructionist HOA. Besides which, SolarCity (whom I'd NEVER deal with again...separate topic) took a Google satellite view of our home, and said they didn't do installations on flat roofs. I haven't totally counted it out, but I plan on moving in the next 2-3 years, and not sure I want to invest that much if we're going to move.

 

[McRat]

There are actually 3 main Religions in the EV markets:

1) Save The Whales (ain't Tesla offering fake leather?). IMO these folk will be like the biodiesel crowd. They get bored and quit.
2) Operational costs (although this is hard sell with how cheap gas is right now).
3) The superior powertrain characteristics of EV's. Instant power all the time, no vibration, no drama, smoother operation. No warmup required. Far less maintenance hassles. Always waking up with a "full tank".

 

[igotzzoom]

There are actually 3 main Religions in the EV markets:

1) Save The Whales (ain't Tesla offering fake leather?). IMO these folk will be like the biodiesel crowd. They get bored and quit.
2) Operational costs (although this is hard sell with how cheap gas is right now).
3) The superior powertrain characteristics of EV's. Instant power all the time, no vibration, no drama, smoother operation. No warmup required. Far less maintenance hassles. Always waking up with a "full tank".

Of those, I probably fall mostly in #3. Just love the smoothness, torque, and not having to wait in line at Costco.

 

[etm33]

I don't know if solar is worth it in our current situation, since we live in a townhouse, and have to contend with a sometimes obstructionist HOA. Besides which, SolarCity (whom I'd NEVER deal with again...separate topic) took a Google satellite view of our home, and said they didn't do installations on flat roofs. I haven't totally counted it out, but I plan on moving in the next 2-3 years, and not sure I want to invest that much if we're going to move.

Off topic to the thread, so I'll keep it brief:

Flat roof means you could probably do a ballasted system, meaning you could take most everything with you when you move and not lose too much (perhaps the value of the racking if it can't be converted to roof- or ground-mount. Wiring runs would be an additional expense, of course...

 

[1208]

They might buy the bolt because they think it looks better afterall thousands of people buy the Juke or cactus when they could have a normal looking car...

But the SC is the deal maker. Lets hope potential bolt buyers understand what a SC is.

 

[etm33]

2) Operational costs (although this is hard sell with how cheap gas is right now).

Take a conservative rate of $0.15/kWh. Anyone have a charging loss # for Model S? Let's just assume 10kWh/charge are wasted due to losses - 95kWh * $0.15/kWh = $14.25.

$14.25 for say 250mi of real-world range (85 is rated EPA 265) = $0.057/mile

Gas = $1.85/avg US price today for regular
Assume 27 mpg (a little higher than I found in searching, but a couple years ago it was 25.5) = $0.069/mile

So, a little over a penny a mile less for EV. Over 100k miles, that's ~$1200. Now no oil changes, less brake pads/rotors...it's not a ton, but even under less than ideal conditions the EV comes out ahead. Cheaper electricity skews it pretty far, as well. At $0.10/kWh, you're looking at $0.038/mile, or ~$3000/100k mi. Solar owners with enough capacity to run their car and home are looking at very cheap operational costs, since the car loan and the average payback time for solar would roughly coincide.

 

[igotzzoom]

Off topic to the thread, so I'll keep it brief:

Flat roof means you could probably do a ballasted system, meaning you could take most everything with you when you move and not lose too much (perhaps the value of the racking if it can't be converted to roof- or ground-mount. Wiring runs would be an additional expense, of course...

Interesting thought. The other wrinkle is our unit is overdue for a new roof, so at the very least, I'd like to wait until after we get a new roof to install a system. I'd hate to install it, just to have to tear it off and put it back on again. We'll see how it goes once I get an EV, and if my power bills are off-the-charts. I plan on doing a TOU plan, and charging at super-off-peak times, so hoping the fuel savings over an ICE will still pencil out.

 

[EVNow]

There are actually 3 main Religions in the EV markets:

1) Save The Whales (ain't Tesla offering fake leather?). IMO these folk will be like the biodiesel crowd. They get bored and quit.

I guess you are derogatorily referring to people who want to be part of the solution, rather than the problem w.r.t. climate change ?

In my experience these are the most hardcore EV people. If they quit, it would be to ride a bike.

People who quite at those that are looking at operational cost or just the next shiny object / status symbol.

 

[McRat]

I guess you are derogatorily referring to people who want to be part of the solution, rather than the problem w.r.t. climate change ?

In my experience these are the most hardcore EV people. If they quit, it would be to ride a bike.

People who quite at those that are looking at operational cost or just the next shiny object / status symbol.

The real solution is not to drive as much. Move your business closer to where your employees live, and move your house close to the business.

Use mass transportation, bicycles, and EV motorcycles/bikes. Buy only smaller EV cars if a car is necessary.

Apparently, even when the Out The Door price of an EV today in the US is as low as $16,000 and nobody buys them, but will buy a $120,000 EV in greater numbers, you can get a picture of how many Green Religion folk are serious.

Affordable EV's exist today. They are not selling. Many of the Green Movement are unwilling to sacrifice creature comforts for EVs. They are buying gas burning Priuses instead, but even those aren't selling in significant numbers. They are most likely in a Camry.

I see the Green Technology in EV's as icing on the cake. I'll buy what I like to drive, which happen to be EVs at this point, and if they are eco-friendly, all the better. Would I buy a $16k EV as they are today? No.

 

[Model 3]

Affordable EV's exist today. They are not selling. Many of the Green Movement are unwilling to sacrifice creature comforts for EVs.

So you are saying that "creature comforts" is the only difference between a Tesla and any other EV? Even an EV@$16k?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Apparently, even when the Out The Door price of an EV today in the US is as low as $16,000 and nobody buys them, but will buy a $120,000 EV in greater numbers, you can get a picture of how many Green Religion folk are serious.

If you are talking about the iMIEV, no one buys that car because it's from a brand with horrible reputation and a weak dealer network in the US (Mitsubishi) and it's on the small spectrum for American tastes (it's a Kei Car).

For the $30k range however, the Leaf, Fiat 500e have been doing quite well despite the short range:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

A lot of "green religion" folk bought the Leaf (see the polar bear hugging ad). Some even stretched their budget and bought an S. So not sure your point.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

The real solution is not to drive as much. Move your business closer to where your employees live, and move your house close to the business.

Use mass transportation, bicycles, and EV motorcycles/bikes. Buy only smaller EV cars if a car is necessary.

Apparently, even when the Out The Door price of an EV today in the US is as low as $16,000 and nobody buys them, but will buy a $120,000 EV in greater numbers, you can get a picture of how many Green Religion folk are serious.

Affordable EV's exist today. They are not selling. Many of the Green Movement are unwilling to sacrifice creature comforts for EVs. They are buying gas burning Priuses instead, but even those aren't selling in significant numbers. They are most likely in a Camry.

I see the Green Technology in EV's as icing on the cake. I'll buy what I like to drive, which happen to be EVs at this point, and if they are eco-friendly, all the better. Would I buy a $16k EV as they are today? No.

Given a choice, everyone wants to be less wasteful if it isn't too "painful". There's a huge sliding scale on what is too much of a sacrifice for each individual.

And telling people to not drive as much is the most useless of all solutions. That might work in major metropolitan areas with good mass transit access like NY, Boston, Chicago, and SF, but it'll never work in places like Pomona, San Luis Obispo, and Irvine, where the sprawl is just beyond the capabilities of mass transit. Different regions requires different solutions.

My wife and I work on opposite sides of where we live. Moving closer to work doesn't solve everyone's problems. I'd wager that it doesn't even solve a majority of people's transportation needs.

 

[S3XY]

The real solution is not to drive as much. Move your business closer to where your employees live, and move your house close to the business.

Use mass transportation, bicycles, and EV motorcycles/bikes. Buy only smaller EV cars if a car is necessary.

Apparently, even when the Out The Door price of an EV today in the US is as low as $16,000 and nobody buys them, but will buy a $120,000 EV in greater numbers, you can get a picture of how many Green Religion folk are serious.

Affordable EV's exist today. They are not selling. Many of the Green Movement are unwilling to sacrifice creature comforts for EVs. They are buying gas burning Priuses instead, but even those aren't selling in significant numbers. They are most likely in a Camry.

I see the Green Technology in EV's as icing on the cake. I'll buy what I like to drive, which happen to be EVs at this point, and if they are eco-friendly, all the better. Would I buy a $16k EV as they are today? No.

To me this is like going to the doctor because you have a sharp pain in your abdomen when laughing and the doctor tells you to stop laughing so much.

 

[igotzzoom]

Affordable EV's exist today. They are not selling. Many of the Green Movement are unwilling to sacrifice creature comforts for EVs. They are buying gas burning Priuses instead, but even those aren't selling in significant numbers. They are most likely in a Camry.

Do we live in the same state? Priuses (Prii?) are like cockroaches around here. They're EVERYWHERE. There is definitely a market for green cars in certain regions. I just think a lot of customers have been unwilling to deal with the limitations and sacrifices up to this point, especially in regard to EVs.

 

[physicsfita]

Affordable EV's exist today. They are not selling. Many of the Green Movement are unwilling to sacrifice creature comforts for EVs. They are buying gas burning Priuses instead, but even those aren't selling in significant numbers. They are most likely in a Camry.

Last year, Toyota sold around 185,000 Priuses versus around 430,000 Camrys. I would say the Prius is doing ok in that comparison, considering most Camry buyers are probably less likely to be tree-huggers.

I bought a Prius for its low emissions -- it was the first new car I had ever owned (I had 6 used cars before that). I was a stretch to get something that high-end. It has more than paid for itself in gas savings, so it turned out to be a good move financially, as well. I would happily get an EV, but only Tesla makes ones with enough range for my commute (moving isn't really an option).

Unfortunately, Tesla's current offerings are way outside my ability to pay -- they cost nearly as much as my condo, and I can't finance them for 30 years! The Model 3 should pencil out ok (the devil is in the details, of course).

We all do the best we can with the hand we have.

 

[EVNow]

The real solution is not to drive as much. Move your business closer to where your employees live, and move your house close to the business.

What do you do if your "business" has buildings over 100s of sq. miles and employees live all over the city ?

Use mass transportation, bicycles, and EV motorcycles/bikes. Buy only smaller EV cars if a car is necessary.

How do you transport small children or use a bike in 10 months of the year when it rains ?

Anyway - it is not like only the "green" movement needs to do all this while rest of the folks happily go about r*ping the earth ...

What we need are practical solutions that work for most people. That is why I support EVs and not just biking, public transport or living like an Amazon tribe.

 

[igotzzoom]

What we need are practical solutions that work for most people. That is why I support EVs and not just biking, public transport or living like an Amazon tribe.

This. If you can offer people a solution that doesn't cause a massive disruption in their daily routines, and possibly improves the efficiency or economy of their lives, they will adopt it. You can rant and rail all you want against developed world (read: American) complacency, ignorance, materialism and consumerism, but practical solutions on a large scale will ultimately be a lot more effective than a few radical activists biking to work everyday and cooking with solar ovens. No disrespect to Mr. Begley or other like-minded and like-living individuals.