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Speculation on Bolt sales and M3

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by TNEVol, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. TNEVol

    TNEVol Member

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    First my bias, we have a classic MS P85 with 60K in nearly 3 years and I still just sit in it. We recently bought a used Volt to bridge until the M3 comes out for my wife. We probably would have bought the 2016 Volt if it hadn't been limited to a few states. I am speculating that the 2017 Bolt will do very well in some states prior to the M3 full consistent production, say early 2018. It may even reach the 30K limit in that year. However, I see the Bolt being limited by dealer orders to those same states that have a historic history of selling Volt. Basically these are the same states that received the 2016 Volt. I see the Bolt as being attractive to the Volt owners because as a group they are almost obsessive about driving on no gas, a new Volt would be similar in cost and they might feel loyal to Chevy re their Volt experience. Therefore, I expect that the Bolt will cannibalize the 2017 Volt sales. Second, I expect that Bolt will also cannibalize Leaf sales and perhaps to a lesser extent other HEVS and PHEVS with limited electric mileage. However it appears that GM has not designed and priced the Bolt to be a challenge to its ICE lineup. I do not believe that the Bolt will compete against the M3 either in price or performance but it may do well initially with sales less than 30K until M3 production becomes imminent. My bias is obvious but I certainly would not consider a Bolt even at a much lower price than a M3.
     
  2. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    I've been wondering why anyone would buy Bolt / Leaf 2 instead of Model 3 - even if they all cost the same. Model 3 will have a big leg up on those others because of
    - Premium Brand Status
    - SC

    So, I think to compete, Bolt & Leaf 2 have to be priced lower than Model 3. If not MSRP, at least street price. The other big thing Chevy/Nissan can do - and Tesla can't - is offer attractive leases. If Model 3 lease costs some $500 a month - and Bolt/Leaf 2 can be offered for $250 - that looks like a very big difference, even though the MSRP might be similar.

    There is a section of the population that may be wary of a new manufacturer - but I doubt they'll into a "new" technology like EVs.
     
  3. Jopo43

    Jopo43 Member

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    no charging network why buy the bolt and gm really doesnt want to sell the volt ... they wont really want to sell the bolt ...
     
  4. doubeld

    doubeld Member

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    1) I've been wondering who would buy a Bolt when the Volt is a better deal, in my opinion. Like the stats tell us, the Volt's EV range is ideal for most people's commutes, and then it's set up perfectly for the road trips with the gas range extender. It's genius, and why GM hasn't marketed it well is ridiculous. Every single vehicle in their lineup should have some variation of the Voltec drivetrain. But I digress...
    2) Anyone who has heard of the Tesla Model 3 knows what it will be capable of for the most part and is interested in buying a car, will most likely buy the Model 3. The only thing that the Bolt has going for it will be that it will be the only brand new 200 mile EV for less than $40,000 in 2017 and a good chunk of 2018.
    3) Anyone who has heard of the GM Bolt has already heard of the Tesla Model 3. Refer to 2). For those that have a lease expire in mid-2017 to mid-2018 or who need something to tide them over until the TM3 deliveries take place, might buy a Bolt. Refer to 1).
    4) Some commercial/govt fleets that have a good relationship with GM could spring for the Bolt to boost their green cred. I see nothing wrong with this, and I hope it happens.
     
  5. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    It's really the dealers that don't want to sell the Bolt/Volt. They are GMs greatest 'asset' and their greatest barrier.
     
  6. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    I think the eligibility for the white sticker over the green sticker (no longer offered) will be a major factor for the Bolt, and for that reason, it will cannibalize Volt sales in California.
     
  7. ratsbew

    ratsbew Member

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    Nobody really wants a Chevy EV. Tesla is the cool new kid on the block and everyone wants to be a part of it. The under 30s will be flocking to the Model 3 in droves.
     
  8. Spidy

    Spidy Member

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  9. Breezy

    Breezy Member

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    I think the Bolt will sell about 20k-25k in 2017 and the Volt about the same. Definitely many sales will shift from Volt to Bolt because of the white stickers. Volt and Bolt sales will be dependent on how good the lease deals are.

    Model 3 will outsell Bolt/Volt once Tesla gets production ramped up.
     
  10. Josh the German

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    For us it is a pretty good motivation to buy an EV from a startup like Tesla. These old fashioned car companies have a huge lack of credibility. Especially GM is an old dinosaur that prevented any progress. I think the fate of Tucker is only one example. The inexpressibly lobbying to preserve the fossile behaviour and structure is not only mad. We should boycott these dinosaurs consequently.

    Best regards from Germany

    Josh
     
  11. flankspeed8

    flankspeed8 Member

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    Very hard to predict and I disagree that no one wants a Chevy EV. That is plain wrong. But I agree the M3 will certainly be the more compelling and refined product IMO. However, Tesla better get their communication right and convince people that buying a car over the internet is really the safer and more enjoyable experience as well as beefing up the service model so that people are not waiting weeks for appointments. This really is a whole new world and experience and I think time will be the judge.
     
  12. Forty Creek

    Forty Creek Member

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    My two cents: GM is a very large company with an enormous customer base. If batteries & dealerships don't get in the way, they will be able to scale production and sell a lot of Bolts before Tesla is able to ramp any meaningful production. I can't wrap my head around someone actually choosing a Bolt after cross-shopping the two cars but hey, I don't know much about the M3 yet and am influenced my Model S experience. I am guessing too that the M3 average price will be much higher than the Bolt once a few options are included. That said, I'm guessing the Bolt will far outsell the M3 in the first few years and perhaps beyond.
     
  13. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Under 30s buy few new cars , in the U.S. at least.
     
  14. Jeff N

    Jeff N Active Member

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    I plan to sell my 2004 Prius, keep my 2011 Volt as a 2nd family car, and lease a Bolt for 2-3 years to cover me until the M3 is shipping and any initial problems have been sorted out. I'll end up with the Volt and an M3 which seems like a good combo to me.
     
  15. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    32,000 people bought a Cadillac in December.
    The Buick Encore/Opel Mokka was released at about the same time as the Model S. Over a half million have been sold.

    I don't know who buys Cadillac. And I don't ever recall seeing a Encore/Mokka. But it is a big world, with a wide variety of buying preferences.
     
  16. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

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    A Model S lease starts at $698/mo, so I would say a M3 lease would start at ~$350/mo. If I were leasing and a leaf/bolt was $300/mo and M3 was $350, I wouldn't even consider the leaf/bolt
     
  17. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    I'll be dumping my soon to lease Volt for the Model 3, and I'm not buying the Volt because it's a GM product.

    In other words, I don't think the Bolt or Leaf will be competing with the Model 3...but I suppose we haven't seen what Nissan is doing yet.
     
  18. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    A couple big ifs. That's IF the Model 3 is in fact around the same price as a similarly-equipped Bolt. Remember initially the Model S was supposed to be $50,000, and most sold for $100,000+. And like it or not, Tesla is limited by its sales network. Customers determined enough to get one can get one anywhere in the country. But a lot of people just want to walk into a showroom and drive out. Also, keep in mind the BMW 3-series sold around 150,000 for 2015, and the Camry over 400,000. There are plenty of customers out there that don't care how sexy or trendy a car is.

    I know this is probably the wrong forum to be a Bolt cheerleader, but it is a game-changer for the EV segment. The Model 3 may be as well, but until we see it in person, and until wheels are on the road, it's armchair quarterbacking for either model.
     
  19. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison. I'd wager that the majority of the BMW owners also have access to home charging, where the Camry owners aren't so lucky.

    Everyone wants Civic and Camry owners to consider the Bolt, but I don't think that's going to be the case. I also think that the lack of access to a nationwide fast charging network is going to heavily limit Bolt adoption. Not necessarily in the first year...but not long after.
     
  20. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Being a large company that primarily makes and sells ICE cars (with dealers that are also this way) may be what gets in their way. See what happened to the Volt. The dealerships got in the way and GM marketing has been ineffective in pushing the car. It never topped 30k sales a year, even though on paper it was supposed to be easy to do with the large dealership network (and despite GM offering boatloads of factory incentives). GM has to change that to sell the Bolt.
     

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