Speculation: Time to Delivery for Model 3 will be short, once deliveries begin

[fengshui]

My delivery estimator still says Nov 17-Jan 18, which seems fast, given that they haven't even opened the design studio yet. How can they make this work? My guess is that once they open the design studio, initial delivery dates will be not much more than a week. First Production Model 3 consists really of only 6 different options (the 6 available colors). The other options are wheels and autopilot software options, both of which have no impact on the build process. Telsa has built over 1000 Model 3's, and many more S and X. They should have a pretty good sense of what the demand for each color will be. They can just build cars without specific owners attached, then allocate out just in time for delivery.

We may still see November deliveries, if they have truly solved their bottleneck.

 

[Rockster]

Plus, I'm sure that everyone not directly affected by the bottleneck is taking advantage of this time to build/stage/plan/etc. as much as possible so that production moves as swiftly as it can once the bottleneck is resolved.

 

[run-the-joules]

Telsa has built over 1000 Model 3.

Uh… source?

 

[S3XY]

My guess is that he's basing that on the VIN 1088 sighting. But we all know that Tesla does not build in sequential order and regularly skips numbers.

 

[fengshui]

True, but I think the argument still stands if they've only produced 440. It's still enough to accurately project color choices.

 

[augkuo]

My delivery estimator still says Nov 17-Jan 18, which seems fast, given that they haven't even opened the design studio yet. How can they make this work? My guess is that once they open the design studio, initial delivery dates will be not much more than a week. First Production Model 3 consists really of only 6 different options (the 6 available colors). The other options are wheels and autopilot software options, both of which have no impact on the build process. Telsa has built over 1000 Model 3's, and many more S and X. They should have a pretty good sense of what the demand for each color will be. They can just build cars without specific owners attached, then allocate out just in time for delivery.

We may still see November deliveries, if they have truly solved their bottleneck.

Tesla employees/insiders/friends will get their cars first and some of them haven't even configured their car yet so maybe they will get Dec deliveries.

 

[dsvick]

True, but I think the argument still stands if they've only produced 440. It's still enough to accurately project color choices.

Probably not, considering that the majority of deliveries will have been to a very limited area (predominately CA), to a limited demographic (employees), that represent less than a tenth of one percent of the number of reservations. However, I don't think they really need to project them at all, given the limited number of other options, once they start ramping up they can easily produce hundreds of each color and just assign them a buyer as they confirm.

 

[Graniteds]

Well, I'd love to see November deliveries! i have a terminal stage 4 cancer and have been told I may only 3-4 months to live. The last thing on my bucket list is our Model 3 and I'd like to have a few days to experience and enjoy it. I wonder if there is any flexibility in the que?

 

[McRat]

If I had just a short time left, I'd lease a P100D from inventory...

 

[comanchepilot]

I would probably assume that with 250,000 cars to build, and a ramp up to 5000 a week - it'd be at least a year.

 

[comanchepilot]

Well, I'd love to see November deliveries! i have a terminal stage 4 cancer and have been told I may only 3-4 months to live. The last thing on my bucket list is our Model 3 and I'd like to have a few days to experience and enjoy it. I wonder if there is any flexibility in the que?

If I had driving a Tesla on a bucket list I'd look for a lease to take over - enjoy whatever good time you have!

 

[sundaymorning]

Well, I'd love to see November deliveries! i have a terminal stage 4 cancer and have been told I may only 3-4 months to live. The last thing on my bucket list is our Model 3 and I'd like to have a few days to experience and enjoy it. I wonder if there is any flexibility in the que?

First time I’ve heard anyone use this to try and jump the queu. Are you really stage 4 or are you just joking? I hope it’s the latter.

 

[Graniteds]

First time I’ve heard anyone use this to try and jump the queu. Are you really stage 4 or are you just joking? I hope it’s the latter.

It's for real and this is not just an attempt to "jump the que". Chondrosarcoma is incurable, at least today. We can always hope for science to come through.

 

[03DSG]

It's for real and this is not just an attempt to "jump the que". Chondrosarcoma is incurable, at least today. We can always hope for science to come through.

Carpe Diem

 

[S3XY]

It's for real and this is not just an attempt to "jump the que". Chondrosarcoma is incurable, at least today. We can always hope for science to come through.

Best of luck Graniteds. I hope you get the chance to drive this awesome car.

 

[McHoffa]

It's for real and this is not just an attempt to "jump the que". Chondrosarcoma is incurable, at least today. We can always hope for science to come through.

Damn. If I had mine already I’d let you borrow it. I’d stick with my Leaf a little while longer for you.

 

[ElecFan]

It's for real and this is not just an attempt to "jump the que". Chondrosarcoma is incurable, at least today. We can always hope for science to come through.

Lease/hire a model X/S that you can get NOW. There's no time to waste. Or you could mail Tesla/Elon directly. Who knows, you might get priority.

 

[K-MTG]

Surprised that the design studio still didn't open

 

[run-the-joules]

Surprised that the design studio still didn't open

Are you really?

 

[K-MTG]

Are you really?

Maybe