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Speculation: Time to Delivery for Model 3 will be short, once deliveries begin

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by fengshui, Nov 8, 2017.

  1. fengshui

    fengshui Member

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    My delivery estimator still says Nov 17-Jan 18, which seems fast, given that they haven't even opened the design studio yet. How can they make this work? My guess is that once they open the design studio, initial delivery dates will be not much more than a week. First Production Model 3 consists really of only 6 different options (the 6 available colors). The other options are wheels and autopilot software options, both of which have no impact on the build process. Telsa has built over 1000 Model 3's, and many more S and X. They should have a pretty good sense of what the demand for each color will be. They can just build cars without specific owners attached, then allocate out just in time for delivery.

    We may still see November deliveries, if they have truly solved their bottleneck.
     
  2. Rockster

    Rockster Active Member

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    Plus, I'm sure that everyone not directly affected by the bottleneck is taking advantage of this time to build/stage/plan/etc. as much as possible so that production moves as swiftly as it can once the bottleneck is resolved.
     
  3. run-the-joules

    run-the-joules Active Member

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    Uh… source?
     
  4. S3XY

    S3XY Active Member

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    My guess is that he's basing that on the VIN 1088 sighting. But we all know that Tesla does not build in sequential order and regularly skips numbers.
     
  5. fengshui

    fengshui Member

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    True, but I think the argument still stands if they've only produced 440. It's still enough to accurately project color choices.
     
  6. augkuo

    augkuo Member

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    Tesla employees/insiders/friends will get their cars first and some of them haven't even configured their car yet so maybe they will get Dec deliveries.
     
  7. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    Probably not, considering that the majority of deliveries will have been to a very limited area (predominately CA), to a limited demographic (employees), that represent less than a tenth of one percent of the number of reservations. However, I don't think they really need to project them at all, given the limited number of other options, once they start ramping up they can easily produce hundreds of each color and just assign them a buyer as they confirm.
     
  8. Graniteds

    Graniteds Member

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    Well, I'd love to see November deliveries! i have a terminal stage 4 cancer and have been told I may only 3-4 months to live. The last thing on my bucket list is our Model 3 and I'd like to have a few days to experience and enjoy it. I wonder if there is any flexibility in the que?
     
    • Like x 8
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  9. McRat

    McRat Well-Known Member

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    If I had just a short time left, I'd lease a P100D from inventory...
     
  10. comanchepilot

    comanchepilot Member

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    I would probably assume that with 250,000 cars to build, and a ramp up to 5000 a week - it'd be at least a year.
     
  11. comanchepilot

    comanchepilot Member

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    If I had driving a Tesla on a bucket list I'd look for a lease to take over - enjoy whatever good time you have!
     
    • Like x 1
  12. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

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    First time I’ve heard anyone use this to try and jump the queu. Are you really stage 4 or are you just joking? I hope it’s the latter.
     
  13. Graniteds

    Graniteds Member

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    It's for real and this is not just an attempt to "jump the que". Chondrosarcoma is incurable, at least today. We can always hope for science to come through.
     
    • Informative x 2
  14. 03DSG

    03DSG Active Member

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    Carpe Diem
     
  15. S3XY

    S3XY Active Member

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    Best of luck Graniteds. I hope you get the chance to drive this awesome car.
     
  16. McHoffa

    McHoffa EV.network

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    Damn. If I had mine already I’d let you borrow it. I’d stick with my Leaf a little while longer for you.
     
    • Like x 1
  17. ElecFan

    ElecFan Member

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    Lease/hire a model X/S that you can get NOW. There's no time to waste. Or you could mail Tesla/Elon directly. Who knows, you might get priority.
     
  18. K-MTG

    K-MTG Sunshade Captain of TMC

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    Surprised that the design studio still didn't open
     
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  19. run-the-joules

    run-the-joules Active Member

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    Are you really?
     
  20. K-MTG

    K-MTG Sunshade Captain of TMC

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    Maybe
     

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