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Starship - Human Rating and Orbital Refueling - Discussion
- Thread starter Electroman
- Start date
SpaceX has had at least 53 launches in 2022. So a year of launches _could_ be enough to consider it.
Those were F9 launches. Starship if they maybe made 3 successful orbital launches and ONE successful landing by end of next year - I think that would be phenomenal.
Also for a moon orbit don’t they have to do an in orbit fuel transfer ?
Since Dear Moon is a private mission, not funded by the government, SpaceX and Maezawa can set their own standard as to how many launches/landings are sufficient to ensure an acceptable safety risk. If I was the paying customer I would be okay with about five successful launches/landings in a row. But that’s just me.
I'd say there needs to be at least 2 years with 12 launches and landings of Starship minimum. Super Heavy should have an equal amount. What really matters is what SpaceX finds after they recover Starship and Super Heavy. SpaceX was only able to do the significant re-design of Falcon 9, which made it into the robust multi-launch and recovery vehicle it is today, by examining the recovered boosters and finding out what was having issues and wearing out.
Just a reminder of the history that supports my supposition. I will start with 2013 and F9 version 1.1:
2013 was the first launch of F9 version 1.1. This was the first version that even had the possibility of recovery because of the improvements to the rocket design. It had 13 launches and no successful recoveries but did come very close with Jason-3.
Late 2015 was the first recovery and the first use of the FT design. That design was the first to allow for reuse. 24 boosters were made and 12 were successfully relaunched one time. 5 of the 24 were intentionally discarded because the energy was needed to launch big heavy satellites.
So all of that happened before the first Block 5 booster was made and launched in 2018.
It took almost three years after a booster was recovered to improve the design to be robust enough to do the amazing things that Elon envisioned.
Starship/SH is a much more complex rocket but I'll trim off a year because of all the pre-testing SpaceX is doing with the design. So my real belief is that it will be two years after a Starship and Super Heavy is recovered before SpaceX will consider launching a human aboard the rocket.
So sometime around 2025 to 2026 SpaceX will launch a human aboard a Starship.
Just a reminder of the history that supports my supposition. I will start with 2013 and F9 version 1.1:
2013 was the first launch of F9 version 1.1. This was the first version that even had the possibility of recovery because of the improvements to the rocket design. It had 13 launches and no successful recoveries but did come very close with Jason-3.
Late 2015 was the first recovery and the first use of the FT design. That design was the first to allow for reuse. 24 boosters were made and 12 were successfully relaunched one time. 5 of the 24 were intentionally discarded because the energy was needed to launch big heavy satellites.
So all of that happened before the first Block 5 booster was made and launched in 2018.
It took almost three years after a booster was recovered to improve the design to be robust enough to do the amazing things that Elon envisioned.
Starship/SH is a much more complex rocket but I'll trim off a year because of all the pre-testing SpaceX is doing with the design. So my real belief is that it will be two years after a Starship and Super Heavy is recovered before SpaceX will consider launching a human aboard the rocket.
So sometime around 2025 to 2026 SpaceX will launch a human aboard a Starship.
Back when there was discussion of needing 50 landings I questioned it... but 100??
I'm of the opinion that bar for human rating is ridiculous, given ships get human ratings after a couple/few launches.
Yes... powered landings are new, so I can see requiring some more qualifying landings... but 100?? Once it's shown to work for Starship (as it's now routine for Falcon9... does any expect it not to work anymore?), I say 6-8 qualifying tests puts the crew at no more risk than flying atop a bomb that's only flown twice....
Sure, but the keys are that they are already used to a high launch cadence, one of Starship's design features is rapid reusability, and they have a huge financial incentive to get it quickly into frequent use for Starlink.
So, I expect things to move _very_ quickly once they're able to do a successful orbital launch. To me that's the biggest variable.
Yes, although I expect that would be relatively easy for them. They've already switched from berthing to docking Dragon and nobody really batted an eyelid. I think the math will be a lot simpler in spaaaaace.
Good analysis. I would only add that because of what SpaceX has learned over the years with recovering F9 boosters, I think successful FH recoveries will start to happen relatively quickly after just a few launches. In many ways — but of course not all ways! — an FH is a scaled up F9. On the other hand…
…successful Starship recoveries may take longer because the landing technique — the “bellyflop” — is all new. However, I would argue that the Shuttle was a “rocket” (it had its own engines) and it landed successfully on the first try, going on to have 133 out of 134 successful landing attempts (135 missions in total but one mission did not achieve orbit, so no landing attempt).
Obviously Starship will use a very different landing technique than the Shuttle. But the successful SN15 landing demonstrated that the technique is viable as long as the vehicle survives re-entry with the TPS intact and flaps functional.
I think it is possible that, given how rapidly SpaceX is building new boosters and ships, reliable launches and landings could be demonstrated in about a year if the FAA will permit launches at a rapid cadence. Permitting may be a bottleneck.
NOTE: There is also the issue of proving out the “Stage Zero” catch technique. Again, I think that is likely to happen more quickly with the booster than the ship. But given the demonstrated deep throttling capability of the Raptor, and the demonstrated landing accuracy of the F9 which can be translated to the FH and also Starship, I’m optimistic…
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If they did need 100 flights...
Starlink V2 is ~1.25ton
Starship is 100 ton to LEO
Say 60 satellites per launch due to mass/ volume constraints
SpaceX was just approved for 7,500 Gen 2 sats by FCC
That's over 100 launches. (50% must be in next 6 years, but SpaceX/ tmobile would go faster)
Plus Gen 1 sat launches
Plus tanker/ depot tests and fueling
So they will have quite a few separately funded flights.
Yeah, their cadence is so fast that they'd probably end up making that mayn filights if required, relatively quickly.
But my point is that the requirement of anywhere near that many flights seems completely decoupled from the level they set for other human rated space activity.
That was a F9 type landing on legs. But Starship will be caught by some new contraption called 'arms', which as of now is bordering science fiction. There will be a couple of missed landings before they get it perfect. It will be a looong time before they can perfect it, repeat it dozens of times before they can try it with a human crew.
That brings up an interesting question: Why are they not testing this new landing method with Starship before the orbital attempt?
You missed my statement….
And then I said…
I was referring to the “bellyflop”.
The fact that SN15 could slow to just a few kph while remaining stable (not perfectly, but very close) shows that SpaceX has that pretty well figured out. Yes, at that point in the landing the Stage Zero chopsticks have to catch the vehicle, and that has not yet been tested.
We know that the first orbital test is planned to have Starship attempt a soft ocean landing near Hawaii, and possibly the next few launches will do the same until they are confident that Starship can be controlled accurately enough during the final minute or so that it will be worth the risk to attempt a chopsticks catch at Stage Zero.
My opinion. I have no special knowledge or information!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I see your point. If the requirement is 100 successful flights for human rating then SLS is doomed. So is everybody else contemplating joining the launch industry for people - the only company that could possibly meet such a standard this decade is SpaceX. SLS would need centuries to meet that kind of a standard
Well, I'd guess that SLS would have to meet the same standard for human rating a system that other rockets have, which seems to be single-digit numbers of flights.I see your point. If the requirement is 100 successful flights for human rating then SLS is doomed. So is everybody else contemplating joining the launch industry for people - the only company that could possibly meet such a standard this decade is SpaceX. SLS would need centuries to meet that kind of a standard
The idea that, because the landing system is powered (as opposed to chutes and splashdown), the bar to meet is an order of magnitude greater seems... well... without precedent and a much higher bar than anything involved in spaceflight, ever.
Heck, if we are talking about new/unproven technology qualification, what was the risk in going to the moon, and how many unmanned Apollo rocket/capsule/LEM /rendez-vous dry-runs were there?
SLS is totally different philosophical approach so it’s not apples to apples. Starship will require many more flights because it is intentionally demonstrate or fail (then iterate). SLS will require only a few because it is fully design then execute.
Obviously SX isn’t self certifying for human flight so they can’t simply make up a number of flights to ‘call it good’, but they will be able to propose a credible demonstration campaign (largely to NASA and The Range) since there’s really not a standard that exists. IMO it will probably includes a similar number of full-up missions as SLS will have before crewed missions. (Specifically, 1)
It appears that the SLS human rating flight requirement is…1.
It was a different time of course, when the goal was to beat the Soviets, so risks were taken.
I'm with everyone here and believe that the chance of a 2023 Dear Moon Starship journey around the Moon is zero.
Let's walk through the steps needed.
1. Orbital Test launch - seeing if they get to orbit and a water landing where the Starship will be lost. There is a chance that the Super Heavy could come back for a landing. That is just a complex F9 booster maneuver that SpaceX is experts with from F9 booster recoveries. Optimistically, let's say they recover the Super Heavy booster. That is early 2023. You have to figure at least one to two months examination while a second Starship is being built.
2. Second Test Launch to Orbit - This will be carrying a payload. Probably Starlink 2.0's to test how that will go. This will be four to six months after OTL-1. Now we're mid to later 2023. Again, optimistic and both Starship and Super Heavy are recovered. One month.
3. Third launch - will be relatively quick (one month) after a thorough examination. Elon is eager to test full reusability. So another launch with both already flown segments and another Starlink load. Getting into late 2023.
4. Fourth launch - More Starlinks. Still using the original booster and Starship. A second booster and Starship is being finalized. I'd say we're in very early 2024 by now. They are also building a Starship fueling depot around now.
5. Fifth and Sixth launch - Early 2024 - One will be the fourth launch of the Starlink Starship and the other will be the newest one testing full orbit with a commercial satellite. The New Starship will also be the one to test orbital refueling.
6 Seventh launch - Still early 2024 - about one month later - launching the orbital fueling depot Starship.
7. Eight+ - 2024 will see as many launches as possible. Figure 10 to 20 at best. Orbital refueling will be tried. At least one or two more Starships and boosters built. Rumors of an improved Booster and Starship design will be talked about at the tail end of the year.
8. 2025 - Sometime in this year the improved version will launch - which will be more robust and have better reusability than the first generation. Maybe 20 to 40 launches this year. Testing will be done on the new design.
9. 2026 - The newest Block 5 design will be introduced which will incorporate everything SpaceX has learned. This will be the very stable version which will achieve human rating because SpaceX will have dialed in launching, landing, and orbital refueling.
So that's my WAG. It all assumes that no critical failures happen. If one or two does, then expect a six month delay for each.
Let's walk through the steps needed.
1. Orbital Test launch - seeing if they get to orbit and a water landing where the Starship will be lost. There is a chance that the Super Heavy could come back for a landing. That is just a complex F9 booster maneuver that SpaceX is experts with from F9 booster recoveries. Optimistically, let's say they recover the Super Heavy booster. That is early 2023. You have to figure at least one to two months examination while a second Starship is being built.
2. Second Test Launch to Orbit - This will be carrying a payload. Probably Starlink 2.0's to test how that will go. This will be four to six months after OTL-1. Now we're mid to later 2023. Again, optimistic and both Starship and Super Heavy are recovered. One month.
3. Third launch - will be relatively quick (one month) after a thorough examination. Elon is eager to test full reusability. So another launch with both already flown segments and another Starlink load. Getting into late 2023.
4. Fourth launch - More Starlinks. Still using the original booster and Starship. A second booster and Starship is being finalized. I'd say we're in very early 2024 by now. They are also building a Starship fueling depot around now.
5. Fifth and Sixth launch - Early 2024 - One will be the fourth launch of the Starlink Starship and the other will be the newest one testing full orbit with a commercial satellite. The New Starship will also be the one to test orbital refueling.
6 Seventh launch - Still early 2024 - about one month later - launching the orbital fueling depot Starship.
7. Eight+ - 2024 will see as many launches as possible. Figure 10 to 20 at best. Orbital refueling will be tried. At least one or two more Starships and boosters built. Rumors of an improved Booster and Starship design will be talked about at the tail end of the year.
8. 2025 - Sometime in this year the improved version will launch - which will be more robust and have better reusability than the first generation. Maybe 20 to 40 launches this year. Testing will be done on the new design.
9. 2026 - The newest Block 5 design will be introduced which will incorporate everything SpaceX has learned. This will be the very stable version which will achieve human rating because SpaceX will have dialed in launching, landing, and orbital refueling.
So that's my WAG. It all assumes that no critical failures happen. If one or two does, then expect a six month delay for each.
Have you checked the amount of work in progress ships and boosters there are at Boca Chica recently?
Two additional ships and one booster were nearing completion (B8 is retired).
From November:
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