Stirring the Pot on the Model X Reveal

[AnxietyRanger]

My recollection is that Signature Model S had the following choices:
- Performance
- Panoramic roof
- Exterior: Signature Red, Black, White, Silver Metallic (for production, Signature Red was not allowed but other colors were available)
- Interior: Black, White, Tan (for production, Gray was offered instead of White)
- Décor: Carbon Fiber (only available with Performance), Lacewood, Obeche Matte, Obeche Gloss, Piano Black
- Wheels: 21" Silver, 21" Dark gray, 19" (Silver)
- 3rd row seats
- HPWC

I chose the underlined. The italics was the only one I had to make a real decision on; and I recollect discussing it with dsm363 and others on the forum. The rest were instant choices that I never had any second thoughts.

If they keep the choices this limited for Signature Model X, then it's totally likely they could open up "Design Studio for Signature" without having to reveal any of the secret sauce prior.

Thanks for the recollections. Much appreciated.

As for the Design Studio for Signature, wouldn't they still need to show the exterior and at least some of the interior for people to make those choices on? Also, although I know people order factory cars without seeing them in person all the time, I wonder how comfortable Tesla would be selling them (final orders) for people who have not seen the car even in pictures... Is it kosher and would there be a backlash?

 

[Red Sage]

I'm told the best restaurants don't bother to have pictures of their food on the menu.

;-)

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I'm told the best restaurants don't bother to have pictures of their food on the menu.

;-)

Perhaps not quite comparable.

Do tell anyone who recalls, how was the Model S Signature order process. Were there already images in the design studio (or equivalent) back then?

I mean, I guess in theory Tesla could put 2012-2013 prototype pictures on the design studio and a huge disclaimer saying the final vehicle will look different. The difference this time is they already know it is a lot different, so it is not just about subtle changes that may occur between order and delivery (that are possible with every factory car order, e.g. if car moves from one model year to another in Europe which happens in a rolling fashion vis-à-vis factory orders).

I'm perhaps leaning more on the theory of reveal with deliveries to Founders and, theoretically, first few Signatures - and then opening design studio for all. But who knows. I'm more interested in digging info about the product, than the company or the delivery process, so others may be more apt to speculate.

But a disgruntled customer after a 100K car is different than one after a 0.1K meal.

 

[AziwA]

I don't really see why tesla would expose themselves to potential issues with order holders by asking for confirmation and payment without at least seeing pictures of the car they are buying. The added benefit being they keep the final design secret a few more months?

The only reason for keeping the design secret so close to delivery I can imagine is they have not yet finalised the design - which has more concerning implications if that's the case.

 

[WarpedOne]

There are two questions to be answered:

a) What does Tesla benefit by disclosing Model X at this time, half a year before significant production?
b) What does Tesla 'loose' by disclosing Model X at this time, half a year before significant production?

Possible answers to first question are: deposit $, publicity.
Possible answers to second questions is: lower demand for Model S.

Questions a and b thus transform in to the real question - does Tesla need additional deposit $ and additional publicity so much that they will sacrifice some Model S demand and production? Obvious answer is they don't. Stable Model S demand is worth much more than some more deposit $ and additional publicity. They will show final X when they are able to deliver it. They have nothing to gain by showing it sooner. And they will somewhat avoid tesla-is-dead-articles when they will have to delay deliveries for another week because production of some unimportant part like sunshades is yet not high enough. They plan a much faster production ramp up than with Model S.

 

[AziwA]

Very good points WarpedOne. How do you suppose they will deliver the first "public" cars sight unseen though ?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I agree with WarpedOne's logic but also with AziwA's question.

The question isn't will Tesla delay Model X reveal as long as possible. Of course they will, due to Model S.

The question is, how long before volume deliveries will they feel compelled to reveal Model X, due to simple order logistics.

- - - Updated - - -

Very good points WarpedOne. How do you suppose they will deliver the first "public" cars sight unseen though ?

More importantly: How do the maintain volume deliveries after first sight-unseen deliveries.

They probably won't try. They'll deliver Founders on launch, a couple of ordered-in-secret first Signatures (if they are adventurous but maybe not) and then there is weeks of delay to allow orders and actual volume production. That is my guess.

 

[AziwA]

It would be interesting to see how much market cannibalisation there is between the S and the X.

A couple of thoughts on the subject:

- Model X is no secret, although we do not yet know the details its widely public (and easily findable on Teslas own Website) as such I would suspect that potential buyers already are holding off on Model S orders until Model X reveals. What I am getting at is that there may not be such a drop in Model S orders once Model X is unveilled, in Tesla may even see an increase as people who were waiting for X unveil to make a final decision will now be able to make an informed choice. (I am in this boat, although I ordered my Model S several months ago due to an iminant prise rise, I have elected for a November delivery to take advantage of any upgrades/changes that may occure to Model S as a result of X unveil)

- As there is little to no real competition to either the S or the X, a potential "tesla buyer" will buy either an S or an X but no other car, so not really a lost sale, as such revealing the X a few months early will not hurt overall numbers.

- Considering Tesla are suply limited not demand limited, having the X unveilled may not cause much concern to Tesla even if it means a slowdown in S orders. Again I am getting at the fact that due to lack of competition, an interested buyer is essensially forced to pick between the S and the X, either way resulting in a sale for Tesla.

 

[cantdecide]

If they keep the choices this limited for Signature Model X, then it's totally likely they could open up "Design Studio for Signature" without having to reveal any of the secret sauce prior.

Right.

External photo of the beta to help select colors... an internal photo to help select internal choices for whatever choices we get if we get any. If we do get other options such as suspension or performance model then they should tell us the details/statistics of those options.

Then there is plenty that can still be revealed at the delivery reveal such as... Well... Most of what has been speculated on this forum. E.g. if the middle row of seats can be switched to face backwards, how does that affect option choices unless it is optional?

 

[vigge50]

One thing I have thought is that Tesla don't want to show of the secret news in Model X before they start to deliver to make sure it takes as long as possible for the other car manufacturers to take after and put in same features in there cars. The more good unique features the Model X have, the bigger is the chance that they will sell it in big numbers.

 

[AziwA]

One thing I have thought is that Tesla don't want to show of the secret news in Model X before they start to deliver to make sure it takes as long as possible for the other car manufacturers to take after and put in same features in there cars. The more good unique features the Model X have, the bigger is the chance that they will sell it in big numbers.

True. However the biggest differentiator will still be that it's an electric SUV (or at least large car). I doubt that a few months will have a big impact on other manufacturers ability to implement whatever new tech into their cars as their designs are usually set years ahead.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

True. However the biggest differentiator will still be that it's an electric SUV (or at least large car). I doubt that a few months will have a big impact on other manufacturers ability to implement whatever new tech into their cars as their designs are usually set years ahead.

Agreed. Not Osbourning the Model S - making people wait for a future product any more than they already do - would seem more plausible to me than hiding features from competition.

Revealing those new features is much more a danger to current Model S sales than competition seeing them would be to future sales. Especially in a slow-cycle market like cars, might be different in some other tech.

 

[vandacca]

I'm in agreement with @WarpedOne on Tesla's reasons for keeping the Model-X under wraps for as long as possible. A $5k refundable deposit is nothing compared to a $80k+ confirmed sale. Thats why Tesla has been strongly trying to dissuade people from getting the Model-X - Elon has stated this a number of times. And as a lot of people has noticed, Tesla sales people really try to get you into a Model-S.

With regards to the Model-X secret, it really isn't a secret, but outside this forum, its not very well known either. The average consumer out there would not have heard about the Model-X since it hasn't really been in any news cycles, and likely won't be in any until the reveal. Even after the reveal, the attention will not reach all the masses, which is fine with Tesla because they are constrained on how many vehicles they can build anyway.

If you go into most Tesla showrooms, I would expect there to be very little Model-X information to distract consumers. It would all be about the Model-S in most showrooms. Once the cat is out of the bag (i.e. Model-X reveal) then it will be about ramping up as quickly as possible to maximize sales. Until then, there is no point in cannibalizing Model-S sales.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Of course all this agreement means one would be pretty silly buying a Model S now, unless they absolutely have to or don't care about features. It can be a vastly improves product in six months time. Also seeing Model X in full form might help with a more considered purchase choice between them.

Tesla's motivations in pushing Model S to us are not necessarily in line with the buyers interest.

 

[AziwA]

If you go into most Tesla showrooms, I would expect there to be very little Model-X information to distract consumers. It would all be about the Model-S in most showrooms. Once the cat is out of the bag (i.e. Model-X reveal) then it will be about ramping up as quickly as possible to maximize sales. Until then, there is no point in cannibalizing Model-S sales.

Agreed. Begs the question though what will happen after the unveil. Will the X cannibalise the S? My guess is yes especially as the price point seems to be the same.

I'm almost surprised they didn't make the X 20-30% more expensive and more premium only to differentiate it away from the S and hit a different market. (I guess we don't know that they haven't done this but seems very unlikely)

 

[AziwA]

Of course all this agreement means one would be pretty silly buying a Model S now, unless they absolutely have to or don't care about features. It can be a vastly improves product in six months time. Also seeing Model X in full form might help with a more considered purchase choice between them.

Tesla's motivations in pushing Model S to us are not necessarily in line with the buyers.

Exactly my dilemma. I bought my model S prior to the EU price increase but holding off on delivery because I suspect (read: hope) there will be significant new features added. As I said above I think we may see an increase in S orders once X is unveiled as I assume there are people like me just waiting to see.

 

[bonnie]

Agreed. Begs the question though what will happen after the unveil. Will the X cannibalise the S? My guess is yes especially as the price point seems to be the same.

I'm almost surprised they didn't make the X 20-30% more expensive and more premium only to differentiate it away from the S and hit a different market. (I guess we don't know that they haven't done this but seems very unlikely)

Exactly my dilemma. I bought my model S prior to the EU price increase but holding off on delivery because I suspect (read: hope) there will be significant new features added. As I said above I think we may see an increase in S orders once X is unveiled as I assume there are people like me just waiting to see.

I'm just looking forward to the milestone day where Tesla will have two different vehicles on display and for sale in each store. We had Roadsters ... and then several months of nothing. Model S has held down the fort by itself like a trooper. Two vehicles, with variations within each model line will mean buyers have choices when they walk in.

For someone who has been watching since the early days, this is pretty cool stuff.

 

[AziwA]

Absolutely agree Bonnie. The closer we get the more it's hard to wait. I want my model S

 

[electracity]

Will the X cannibalise the S?

Assuming it is at the same price point, it doesn't matter to Tesla. I expect the S to be updated with some X features, and possibly a sheet metal refresh later next year.

 

[vandacca]

Agreed. Begs the question though what will happen after the unveil. Will the X cannibalise the S? My guess is yes especially as the price point seems to be the same.

I'm almost surprised they didn't make the X 20-30% more expensive and more premium only to differentiate it away from the S and hit a different market. (I guess we don't know that they haven't done this but seems very unlikely)

In North America, SUVs appear to out-sell their sedan counterparts 3:1. Its probably different in the EU and other parts of the world, maybe between 2:1 to 1:1? So, I would expect Model-S sales to falter a bit once the Model-X is released, but stabilize to a 3:1 ratio over the course of the first year (at least in North America).

I'm also expecting a WOW factor to hit when the Model-X is revealed. I think once all the camo is dropped, the Model-X (from certain angles) will be jaw-dropping unique, specifically the mostly glass windscreen/roof. This might make the Model-X more desirable than the Model-S, or at least feel more advanced/new.