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While I agree some cannibalism already occurred due to the 2012 reveal and subsequent reservation process - and that already exists as a baseline, I think things are different now for two reasons:
- Even, or perhaps especially, us dedicated people are fickle. See how many people waiting for Model X jumped at the chance to get a P85D sooner. Sure, some were waiting for just AWD, but others I'm sure did it for the very human reason of buying into what is immediately or almost immediately available. Model X today is still a mirage of sorts. Sure, we know it will come out eventually, but we haven't seen it without camo, it has been delayed multiple times, the queue seems indefinitely long etc. Model X is still intangible and that, for many, does affect buying behavior. What if Tesla today came out with a photo of Model X and said you can have this by end of Q4, guaranteed, even if you order today. Its chances of hurting Model S deliveries in the interim are quite a bit higher than the vague state where Model X is today.
- Another is publicity. Model X got some publicity back in the day, but today not many know much about it. Your average person wandering into a Tesla store won't know much about it since Tesla has been decidedly mum about it for the past year or so and pushed Model S hard instead. At best, it is a bit like Model 3, talk of some eventual future model, not of concern today. For these people Model X is even less of an issue at the moment. Put the Model X out with fanfare, tell deliveries are starting, these people will hear about it. And since they are without Model X reservations, they go to the end of the queue. But now their choice is harder for both sides: They may opt to wait for Model X, but the wait is long and causes uncertainty, and in any case delayed sale for Tesla.
I don't claim to know how big a part this thinking plays in Tesla's scheduling of Model X launch (any more than anyone who is basing their analysis on public info only), but I think the logic is there. Tesla could hurt current Model S sales by launching the Model X too carelessly, without equal benefit to the other direction, because if Tesla is supply constrained on the Model S - they are even more supply constrained on Model X. For them, it makes very little sense currently to do anything that would move any sale of Model S to the Model X. Big hoopla over Model X, with glitzy new features announced, could be such a thing. While I'm sure they don't want to harm Model X, but want to play it up and play it big, they don't want to harm Model S either - so it is balancing act.
Since the earliest active signature member here is bonnie at #2, she fairly recently said she is not under NDA, but has also said she would not divulge confidential information from Tesla. Her guess, though, has been that Tesla would launch with Founders deliveries (aka a sort of beta test) and not with Signature deliveries, FWIW.
As a very late EU Signature holder nobody obviously has approached me with any NDAs and I don't expect them to.
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Indeed. If there is no fear of the Osborne Effect, and we can be pretty sure, aside from some testing and tuning, Model X as a car (perhaps not yet as a manufacturing process) is finished... Why not just launch today?
History supports the thought that the introduction of the X will 'hurt' S sales. Ex: When the D was released many people did not take delivery on in transit/in production RWD Ss and many quickly sold their RWD recently purchased ones for a D. There is always a good bit of hand wringing going on when someone just misses the newest feature or major model change (AWD). So, if you are TM you want the least disruption to overall sales as possible with the introduction of a brand new model with the newest 'gotta have it' features. Reveal with first deliveries.
This is exciting! From investment analyst at Pacific Crest:
Following a factory visit in Fremont, analyst Brad Erickson noted the company was "gearing up" for the Model X, and he expects investor optimism to grow into the launch.
"We were encouraged to see Tesla's new body line (called Body Line 2) beginning to pilot Model X shells, and we view this as a good sign toward the company being able to launch the vehicle "on time." Compared to Body Line 1, the sheer size and greater number of production robots (we'd estimate 3x to 4x) was evident, and we couldn't help but notice several buses worth of new employees receiving training for the new line. To say the mood in the factory is one of "gearing up" would be an understatement," said Erickson.
"We continue to expect the X launch sometime in September"
Following a factory visit in Fremont, analyst Brad Erickson noted the company was "gearing up" for the Model X, and he expects investor optimism to grow into the launch.
"We were encouraged to see Tesla's new body line (called Body Line 2) beginning to pilot Model X shells, and we view this as a good sign toward the company being able to launch the vehicle "on time." Compared to Body Line 1, the sheer size and greater number of production robots (we'd estimate 3x to 4x) was evident, and we couldn't help but notice several buses worth of new employees receiving training for the new line. To say the mood in the factory is one of "gearing up" would be an understatement," said Erickson.
"We continue to expect the X launch sometime in September"
I agree with this. Prematurely revealing, not the X, but any significant new features of the X could cause a major hit to the order rate for the current S's. For example, if the X was prematurely revealed with a 105 battery, current S orders would hit the sidewalk like a watermelon from the 5th floor.
Tesla really has no choice but to keep dead silent until the day that they're ready to load the new features onto the manufacturing line.
This would apply not only to just the reveal but the entire product life. As in if the X comes with a 105 battery for the same or similar price as say a P85D then as you say: watermelon on the sidewalk.
What I'm saying is this will happen not only at a pre-reveal but anytime after X is unveiled.
The only way to really combat this (assuming that is Teslas intention) would be to have the S be given similar features. I.e the S would need an upgrade to compete with the X. Again - this depends on the intention of Tesla. Perhaps they are OK with diminishing S sales in favour of X, perhaps due to higher margins on the X or lack of overall production capacity for now?
That's why they are not revealing until they are capable of immediately delivering those features in X and in S, as one chooses.
My expectation is that X will be offered with 70 and 100kWh battery. 100kWh will be offered in S at the same time and at ~5k higher price than 85.
Sometime later 85 will be dropped, even later in a pricing shuffle base 100kWh version would get a bit lower price.
Exactly agree with WarpedOne. That's what I am banking on and why I am holding off on my delivery of my S. Bigger battery is not my motive rather upgrades sensors, processors, whatever Wow factor they keep promising and possibly facelift (won't be disappointed if the last two do not happen. That's a long shot)
Indeed, I would expect a Model X launch to be coupled with similar feature-upgrades to Model S deliveries starting around the same time. In fact, I wouldn't put it past Tesla to deliver things like a speculative "auto-pilot 2" in Model S first, although would be is launched on the Model X first.
From what we know about Model X so far, I think the content is higher. The car will need to be more expensive to have the same profit margin as the MS (unless the plan is to sell it cheaply at first to buy market share like Toyota did with the Prius).
adiggs
Well-Known Member
And then we can speculate about whether I'm lying when I say that, no, I don't yet have access to the design studio. H'mm - would I do that?
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Nope. I don't think you're lying when you say you don't yet have access to the design studio.
sub
Active Member
I do believe the main reason they are holding off is to not eat into S sales. This is also the main reason why they have to ramp very quickly, if they can produce 1500 S a week at the time the X is revealed and only 300 X, they will have a big issue if the X takes a significant portion of the S sales and now they are even more production constrained and the stock would crater. As a share holder I would prefer this didn't happen!
I do think that putting as many of the new features of the X into the S as possible will help prop up S sales that may drop due to the initial excitement and exclusivity of the X. I'm trying to wait for a model 3 but I don't know if I'll make it that long. A refresh on the S would be a good thing also, doing something with the nose cone, which is the only styling error of the S imo, would be a good thing. If they made this change I think aesthetically from what I've seen of the X, the S is a better looking vehicle. Now that the S is AWD, the only thing your really missing from the X is a little ride height, a true 3rd row seat and some fancy doors (which I like).
I had another thought come to mind while reading through this thread. I know most of the sales stores have multiple S sitting inside and some are bigger than others, they will have room for an S and X. However, there will be issues down the road with some stores when the model 3 comes out, even bigger so if they release a cuv/suv and sedan at the same time. Not sure how they will expand those stores located in Malls. I've been to two, Santana Row and Roseville, Santana Row will be tight since they only have room for two S and the skateboard, Roseville has more space.
I do think that putting as many of the new features of the X into the S as possible will help prop up S sales that may drop due to the initial excitement and exclusivity of the X. I'm trying to wait for a model 3 but I don't know if I'll make it that long. A refresh on the S would be a good thing also, doing something with the nose cone, which is the only styling error of the S imo, would be a good thing. If they made this change I think aesthetically from what I've seen of the X, the S is a better looking vehicle. Now that the S is AWD, the only thing your really missing from the X is a little ride height, a true 3rd row seat and some fancy doors (which I like).
I had another thought come to mind while reading through this thread. I know most of the sales stores have multiple S sitting inside and some are bigger than others, they will have room for an S and X. However, there will be issues down the road with some stores when the model 3 comes out, even bigger so if they release a cuv/suv and sedan at the same time. Not sure how they will expand those stores located in Malls. I've been to two, Santana Row and Roseville, Santana Row will be tight since they only have room for two S and the skateboard, Roseville has more space.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Ok, it's July. Where's the design studio ;-)
Joking aside, I agree with the conclusions above that an early reveal could hurt Tesla if Model X quickly takes sales from Model S, and Tesla doesn't have the ability to meet demand for the X. The new production line, which has more robots and the flexibility to build both S and X, is the best hedge against this danger.
I don't believe that Tesla will reveal the X until management is confident that the new production line can ramp up X production quickly.
Joking aside, I agree with the conclusions above that an early reveal could hurt Tesla if Model X quickly takes sales from Model S, and Tesla doesn't have the ability to meet demand for the X. The new production line, which has more robots and the flexibility to build both S and X, is the best hedge against this danger.
I don't believe that Tesla will reveal the X until management is confident that the new production line can ramp up X production quickly.
I suspect that when the X starts shipping, a new Model X order will be at least 9 months out, so that might play into keeping Model S orders going. Also, it just HAS to cost more for the same approx. configuration. And then, the P85D will always have the better performance specs. And it will handle better too. Still, I wonder if Tesla is anticipating a drop off in Model S sales?
brucet999
Active Member
No great significance, I think. That could simply be 4th of July week shutdown…in Tesla time.
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
More likely that they will bring the second production line online. Not sure this will mean Model X production as it was meant to build both cars (from what I read here)
