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StormWatch on in NorCal again! (September 2020)

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Counter-example: My Powerwalls didn't charge during peak. They got the Storm Watch activation in the late morning and finished in the early part of the afternoon. Here's my Powerwall activity for Sunday:

The green line is the power to and from the batteries. Before about 1040, you can see the green curve (negative to show charging) mirroring the yellow solar curve...the Powerwalls were charging from batteries. Around 1040 they got the Storm Watch activation, so started charging from the grid at about 10kW, and finished around 1300, definitely before peak time. It's a little hard to tell, but about 1740 I disabled Storm Watch and the system went back to Cost Savings, so the batteries were running the house until they hit their reserve limits around 2030.

Bruce.

Looking at the CAISO demand charts, storm watch should have really started charging a little before 0800, could have charged at a slower rate to be grid friendly - or program to complete charging around noon. Sometime between 1200 and 1400, the demand starts to climb rapidly and utilities are stressed to keep up. Well, that is for now... with more battery storage planned in Cali, it will get subsequently easier to keep pace.
 
Knowing that I can top up then export peak period solar production (thus sell @ peak rate but use none) changes the economics of "4 kW solar+1 PW2" for the house but still not there yet. My levelized cost of energy over 20 years, assuming replacing the inverter once and the PW2 and 6% cost of money, would be $0.23 a kWh. In NV, we get 20 years of 75% retail and my est is earning $0.076 a kWh.

On the plus side, t looks like this system can support my house + 1 EV + provide backup power.
 
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Knowing that I can top up then export peak period solar production (thus sell @ peak rate but use none) changes the economics of "4 kW solar+1 PW2" for the house but still not there yet. My levelized cost of energy over 20 years, assuming replacing the inverter once and the PW2 and 6% cost of money, would be $0.23 a kWh. In NV, we get 20 years of 75% retail and my est is earning $0.076 a kWh.

On the plus side, t looks like this system can support my house + 1 EV + provide backup power.

Partial backup is likely. 5KW max continuous from each Powerwall.
 
It's hard to make the economics for Powerwalls work, even with usurious PG&E rates here in NorCal. And for backup power, it's hard to beat a generator for whole house backup. Obviously if you have a blackout and it's been smoky and you don't have much power stored, it's an issue. But it's also a problem in stormy weather as well.

I think the PW's are more like a UPS than true whole house backup power. But even if the integration was 10X better than what Tesla has built so far, the cost effectiveness is hard to make work compared with a generator alone.
 
It's hard to make the economics for Powerwalls work, even with usurious PG&E rates here in NorCal. And for backup power, it's hard to beat a generator for whole house backup. Obviously if you have a blackout and it's been smoky and you don't have much power stored, it's an issue. But it's also a problem in stormy weather as well.

I think the PW's are more like a UPS than true whole house backup power. But even if the integration was 10X better than what Tesla has built so far, the cost effectiveness is hard to make work compared with a generator alone.
I agree that from a pure economic stand point, it can be hard to justify (sometimes depending on utilities and state/local incentives,) and a generator can often be more cost-effective. And, its most obvious, measurable economic benefit of allowing some load shifting to avoid peak charges (or collect money from a utility, as some utility programs offer) is in conflict with its benefit as a backup - the lower the PWs run to shift loads, the less initially available in an outage.

But it does have some benefits over generators. The big one to me is there is no need to rely on anything off property or to stockpile fuel locally. And, while generation can be an issue in stormy weather, my sense is that this one is mitigated both by storm watch (for major events, like hurricanes, and hopefully blizzards) and the option to use backup-only. Also, often, the storm isn't present for too long, and clearer skies will re-emerge during the potential extended outage.

With 1 PW and partial-home backup, I can see the comparison to a large UPS as being more reasonable. But, with multiple PWs and a whole-home backup configuration, to me that is exactly what it is. And just like a generator, it has some limits and the load needs to be managed appropriately (or enough money spent to have a large enough capacity.) As I said above, I agree on the economics not being as good as generators, but that doesn't change what its capabilities are.
 
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The economics for PWs work with PG&E. Here's my logic. If you are going to get some type of backup, then compare delta price of PWs versus generator. In my case, the delta was ~$5K. The payback from rate arbitrage is less than 5 years and that does not include any generator maintenance or operational costs. So PWs have an ROI everyday. Whereas, you can buy a generator and never use it
 
The economics for PWs work with PG&E. Here's my logic. If you are going to get some type of backup, then compare delta price of PWs versus generator. In my case, the delta was ~$5K. The payback from rate arbitrage is less than 5 years and that does not include any generator maintenance or operational costs. So PWs have an ROI everyday. Whereas, you can buy a generator and never use it
That definitely makes sense as a way to look at it. My only comment would be that using it to arbitrage rates potentially reduces its usefulness for backup because you might be caught with well less than 100% charge. Of course, as I know a number of you are doing in CA, you can increase the reserve where the risk of an outage increases, but that is not always known. So the generator comparison should take that into account. It does sound like it still makes economic sense given your rates and usage - just pointing out the interesting tension that exists between the two ways of using the PW, which is different from a generator.

In my area, it definitely makes no sense from a pure economic standpoint because there are no TOU rates. So for me it was about having backup power (and taking advantage of great state incentives,) though I also continue to anticipate TOU rates will come into play at some point.
 
Same here in the Bay Area. 40 degree drop in 1 day. Nice but a tad bit smoky.
Man I am feeling sorry and somewhat worried about what has been going on down there lately with fires, power, etc. Hearing from friends and relatives in the bay area and seeing photos of those orange dark skies in the middle of the day is really unusual. Then I hear from the people who bought my home in San Ramon that their hazard insurance has TRIPLED in just the last 3 years. That's terrible. I hope things get better.
 
That definitely makes sense as a way to look at it. My only comment would be that using it to arbitrage rates potentially reduces its usefulness for backup because you might be caught with well less than 100% charge. Of course, as I know a number of you are doing in CA, you can increase the reserve where the risk of an outage increases, but that is not always known. So the generator comparison should take that into account. It does sound like it still makes economic sense given your rates and usage - just pointing out the interesting tension that exists between the two ways of using the PW, which is different from a generator.

In my area, it definitely makes no sense from a pure economic standpoint because there are no TOU rates. So for me it was about having backup power (and taking advantage of great state incentives,) though I also continue to anticipate TOU rates will come into play at some point.


Worse case is outage happens at sunset. However, I can easily make it through the night with 33% reserve (3 PWs). If outage occurs anytime before sunset, you have solar available. There maybe some situations where you need to manage load, but I cannot see a scenario where the PWs + solar would not provide the power I need for many days in a row
 
Are you guys getting any smoke from California wildfires? My area in Roseville ca was absolutely horrible due to a fire 20 miles away in west Sacramento.
I had both my AC and air purifiers blasting. Going to buy a 3rd dyson air purifier just for the extra peace of mind.
A real bummer, and some of it is so bad that it has been blowing all the way over the Sierras and into the Reno / Sparks area for the last week. Probably not as bad as in your area, yet for several days I have not been able to see the mountains in the background about 5 miles away. First time I ever observed that in the many years I've been up here.
 
A real bummer, and some of it is so bad that it has been blowing all the way over the Sierras and into the Reno / Sparks area for the last week. Probably not as bad as in your area, yet for several days I have not been able to see the mountains in the background about 5 miles away. First time I ever observed that in the many years I've been up here.
Looking at this am's purple air map you are as bad or worse then we are. Sorry for sharing our poor air with you.

upload_2020-9-11_10-29-22.png
 
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Knowing that I can top up then export peak period solar production (thus sell @ peak rate but use none) changes the economics of "4 kW solar+1 PW2" for the house but still not there yet. My levelized cost of energy over 20 years, assuming replacing the inverter once and the PW2 and 6% cost of money, would be $0.23 a kWh. In NV, we get 20 years of 75% retail and my est is earning $0.076 a kWh.

On the plus side, t looks like this system can support my house + 1 EV + provide backup power.

Unless "peak" is different in Nevada than it is in California, you wont be exporting much power during "peak" rates.
 
Yes air quality has been horrible today even though the sky color looks better. Miss those blue skies and clouds. Lots of fog this morning where we’re at which hasn’t helped. Just looked at the Airnow smoke and fire map. Man is it bad on the West Coast all the way to Canada.

4CC8B0F4-F75F-4DB6-A68A-BD5BEA5EE56A.jpeg
 
Looking at this am's purple air map you are as bad or worse then we are. Sorry for sharing our poor air with you.

View attachment 587088

I noticed you didn’t set the option for adjusting for the wood fire smoke factor on their site. Use LRAPA or the other setting mentioned on the below article. It makes a difference.

Understanding PurpleAir vs. AirNow.gov Measurements of Wood Smoke Pollution

The Airnow fire and smoke site factors it into its map results so no further action needed.
 
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I noticed you didn’t set the option for adjusting for the wood fire smoke factor on their site. Use LRAPA or the other setting mentioned on the below article. It makes a difference.
Yeah. I don't like the LRAPA.

But in the article you posted this statement appears:

In the meantime, EPA recommends that you use AQandU instead of LRAPA, especially if the AQI is higher than 150

It does not shift it anywhere as much as LRAPA when the numbers are so large as they are now.

All in all the air quality sucks. :(