Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

[ecarfan]

I suppose what (possibly) is not great depending on how you spin it is that a stead ramp to hit 5,000 cars per week in Q4 may mean that we're realy talking late December to hit that number -- which likely means no one, or possibly very few people outside of internal Tesla Employees or current Tesla owners will actually take delivery of a Model 3.

In 2017.

I hope no one is suprised by the high likelihood that in 2017 only Tesla/SpaceX employees and current US Tesla owners will be the ones who take delivery on their Model 3 reservation. I've heard estimates (from Tesla personnel) that there are over 5,000 reservations made by Tesla/SpaceX employees,

 

[K-MTG]

Elon didn't respond to the question on when to expect M3 configuration ):

 

[JeffK]

I've heard estimates (from Tesla personnel) that there are over 5,000 reservations made by Tesla/SpaceX employees,

Electrek reported it was around 13,000
Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations

 

[ModelNforNerd]

In 2017.

I hope no one is suprised by the high likelihood that in 2017 only Tesla/SpaceX employees and current US Tesla owners will be the ones who take delivery on their Model 3 reservation. I've heard estimates (from Tesla personnel) that there are over 5,000 reservations made by Tesla/SpaceX employees,

And if they're planning to be at 5,000 units/week by September......all 5,000 of those employees would have taken delivery in Q3......

 

[renim]

Tax Credit Math
30k produced in Q4 and hit the 200k limit. Q1 at a rate of 5,000/week for 10 weeks (2 weeks for delivery) = 80,000 Full Model 3 tax credits

30k produced in Q4 and hit 199k total. Q1+Q2 at a rate of 5,000/week for 23 weeks (2 weeks for delivery) = Minimum of 145,000 Full Model 3 tax credits. In reality they should be at 7,500/week at the end of Q2 2018. This number could be in the 175,000 - 200,000 range.

I agree with both timing forecasts.
I think you are misinterpreting run rate, historically, Tesla reaches their weekly run rate but can not sustain it, so perhaps 80% is their sustainable production compared to their weekly run rate.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I agree with both timing forecasts.
I think you are misinterpreting run rate, historically, Tesla reaches their weekly run rate but can not sustain it, so perhaps 80% is their sustainable production compared to their weekly run rate.

and it has been discussed earlier, and Elon even hinted at....Tesla gaming the system to allow the maximum tax credits.

if they reach car 199,999 in the US at the end of a quarter, I'm sure someone out there can be our hero and take delivery the 1st business day of the next quarter.

 

[JeffK]

A few months for the next reveal?!

 

[PaulJB]

Tesla won't unveil final version for "several months, and possibly not until July."

Production cars may be sold to employees before public gets view of final production car? Hmmm.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Production cars may be sold to employees before public gets view of final production car? Hmmm.

I can't see that going down.....those poor employees would be mobbed everywhere they went.

Maybe the final reveal event could include Elon turning the 1st few employee cars over to their new owners.

 

[JeffK]

Tesla won't unveil final version for "several months, and possibly not until July."
Production cars may be sold to employees before public gets view of final production car? Hmmm.

My first thought is that when the Model 3 is finally revealed it's going to tank Model S sales. This is one reason why they'd want to do it at the last possible moment.

 

[S'toon]

Tesla won't unveil final version for "several months, and possibly not until July."

Production cars may be sold to employees before public gets view of final production car? Hmmm.

That's actually been known since a week or so before the first Reveal. The employees got to make reservations first, and would get first delivery due to their dedication to the company.

 

[PaulJB]

I can't see that going down.....those poor employees would be mobbed everywhere they went.

Maybe the final reveal event could include Elon turning the 1st few employee cars over to their new owners.

I think you're correct. We'll probably see a similar reveal event to the Model X, with a few handed over to employees on stage and a few hundred or thousand a couple weeks after.

 

[PaulJB]

That's actually been known since a week or so before the first Reveal. The employees got to make reservations first, and would get first delivery due to their dedication to the company.

Sure, but many expected a second reveal (particularly of the interior) sooner than July. That's what I'm getting at. I understand that employees were always going to get vehicles first, and I think that's the right decision.

 

[JeffK]

ohhh Elon dodged the margin question...

 

[jgillispie]

Can't say I'm not disappointed we won't see the final design, exterior and interior, for quite awhile it seems. Also was hoping to get some sort of clue when the configuration pages would be up.

 

[MP3Mike]

Also was hoping to get some sort of clue when the configuration pages would be up.

But you did. Probably 3-4 months.

 

[PaulJB]

Can't say I'm not disappointed we won't see the final design, exterior and interior, for quite awhile it seems. Also was hoping to get some sort of clue when the configuration pages would be up.

Sounds like configuration for employees and "investors" may come in May or June, with public reservation configuration closer to July. My guess is that we may get some spy shots during the earlier period.

 

[jgillispie]

But you did. Probably 3-4 months.

Ah well that's something then. I had to turn off the call for awhile and missed that.

 

[CT200h]

The comment he made on only 1 screen as opposed to 2 in the S and X . I just don't see how they get away without some info ahead of the driver, maybe 1 screen only in base cars and 1 screen plus HUD in higher Option builds?

 

[ohmman]

The comment he made on only 1 screen as opposed to 2 in the S and X . I just don't see how they get away without some info ahead of the driver, maybe 1 screen only in base cars and 1 screen plus HUD in higher Option builds?

I don't think HUD counts as a "screen".