Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

[mrongey]

I find these numbers interesting when we look at everything Elon has said together. While 20,000 in December is in line with the official guidance, it's no where near the 100,000 in 2017 "dream" goal. However, they have beaten his self-described "impossible" goal to start production in the end of July by two weeks.

I think it's possible (though not realistic) that PRODUCTION numbers may end up being much higher, but DELIVERIES will be near official guidance and the latest twitter projections. Why? Because Elon has also said he wants to maximize the effect of the tax rebate for customers. The twitter projections put them right on target to hit 200,000 U.S. deliveries toward the beginning of Q1 2018. If they are able to ramp faster, that's awesome, and they could either begin delivery to other countries and/or stockpile inventory in December. This could mean tens of thousands more people would then qualify for $3,500 more of the rebate, and I think that's worth it, even if I was one of the several thousand people who had to wait a few more weeks for delivery.

 

[206er]

haters gonna hate, shorters gonna short.

until the end... which will be 7/28!

 

[tpatana]

It's possible that the line is already complete but it'll start so slowly that they can manually inspect every step. So it wouldn't be "made by hand", but it'd be "thoroughly inspected by hand" for the first month, then less inspections on following months while they slowly crank up the line speed.

No matter how, they will be inspected very carefully. They don't want the first 30 to break down in first few weeks. That PR might be interesting.

 

[X Fan]

When your initial timeline was "late 2017" and then you set an "impossible deadline" for suppliers as July 1st, 2017. Which even Elon thought was impossible a year ago. Now, they are ready to start production in early July instead of late 2017 and you say the ahead of schedule thing is laughable?

You are forgetting how many times the timeline has been moved up.

Here's a quote from an article in 2016:

+1.

Based on typical "Tesla time" starting on -time for a high volume product is outstanding!

 

[dhanson865]

Employees not owning a Tesla almost have to buy a model 3, as anyone who has worked for a car manufacturer quickly learns. Although the non-union blue collar employee perhaps face less pressure. The UAW doesn't put up with that nonsense.

I would assume there is less pressure on the guy driving a 10 year old vehicle than the guy driving something made after 2017.

I'd also assume the California rebate/refund/HOV/whatever incentives they have would make the Model 3 a no brainer for Tesla employees.

Also Motorcycle and Pickup Truck drivers would have that excuse.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I would assume there is less pressure on the guy driving a 10 year old vehicle than the guy driving something made after 2017.

I'd also assume the California rebate/refund/HOV/whatever incentives they have would make the Model 3 a no brainer for Tesla employees.

I know nothing about the UAW pressure, or peer pressure...but just imagining...A worker who lost a job when NUMI went under - has now found a good paying job, but has lots of debts. Car, kids, mortgage...and this job is with a new company that some say cant make it.....and you want me to trade in a paid-for car for a new one....Let me get my feet under me first, let the company get is feet under...now we can talk. A GM plant may not pressure a new hire, but one that has been around for years...sure.
Then - lets say you have been building a newest and greatest gizmo...Why would you NOT want one. If you see the quality, and believe in what you are doing - then be first in line because you WANT to, not because the Man said you had to.

 

[Model 3]

Which even Elon thought was impossible a year ago.

Hmm... Was that not just half a year ago?

They don't want the first 30 to break down in first few weeks.

That's why the first cars are sold to employees: if they do we will never know

 

[RubberToe]

haters gonna hate, shorters gonna short.

until the end... which will be 7/28!

shorters gonna short...
haters gonna hate...
up until the end...
which is 7-28

Poetic license at play.

RT

 

[tpatana]

That's why the first cars are sold to employees: if they do we will never know

First batch might include small number of "normal" people and/or VIPs for PR reasons. They might be given NDA about what to do if something goes wrong.

 

[Model 3]

First batch might include small number of "normal" people and/or VIPs for PR reasons.

It "might". But this is the first I have heard anything about that possibility. Is this only something just you are thinking, or have Tesla given any sort of hint in this direction that I have missed?

 

[03DSG]

First batch might include small number of "normal" people and/or VIPs for PR reasons. They might be given NDA about what to do if something goes wrong.

Well I guess I'm out. I'm nowhere near normal.........

 

[tpatana]

It "might". But this is the first I have heard anything about that possibility. Is this only something just you are thinking, or have Tesla given any sort of hint in this direction that I have missed?

Purely my speculation.

Edit: I was just thinking that it'd be sort of boring release event if all cars go to the employees. It'd make it more fun if there was at least small amount going "out", and naturally they'd be highlighted as actual customers. Then the rest 27 units go to Tesla people.

 

[SageBrush]

Purely my speculation.

Edit: I was just thinking that it'd be sort of boring release event if all cars go to the employees. It'd make it more fun if there was at least small amount going "out", and naturally they'd be highlighted as actual customers. Then the rest 27 units go to Tesla people.

I don't doubt that cars will go out to reviewers, probably before July 28th.

We are going to be inundated with news in 25 days.

 

[Model 3]

Purely my speculation.

Ok, thanks. But then I just ignore this possibility until there is anything more that points in this direction.

Edit: I was just thinking that it'd be sort of boring release event if all cars go to the employees. It'd make it more fun if there was at least small amount going "out", and naturally they'd be highlighted as actual customers. Then the rest 27 units go to Tesla people.

No, want be boring (that is an another company! ). We will get the all the specks for the car, all that we have speculate about the last year and more... Battery sizes, range, acceleration+++. We will see the latest modifications on the car. We will get the prices. At least some (normal) customers will get into the "Design studio" that day or soon after. And maybe more information on the ramp up and how the deliveries will be done. That is my guesses, you are free to believe in them or not

 

[tpatana]

Just thinking it'll be live televised, so it'd look strange if it's 100% Tesla people. Add even couple normal people who get the first few vehicles and it looks plenty different. Might be even some semi-VIPs to get more PR on the event.

 

[Model 3]

Add even couple normal people ...

You know, I think that even among the Tesla Employees it would be possible to find one or two "normal people"

Normal customers is something else...

 

[Chris L]

Yeah, I think Tesla employees are more likely to be average people/customers than the VIPs.

But however the rollout plays out is fine with me; I'm certainly not going to get stressed out if numbers and dates do not meet someone's expectations. It is what it is, completely out of my control.

 

[smak]

15 months ago I was hoping to get my car by my (unfortunately big) birthday on 12/29.

I think I'll beat that.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I don't doubt that cars will go out to reviewers, probably before July 28th.

We are going to be inundated with news in 25 days.

Do you mean that Tesla will give out cars to reviewers to drive long term? and not just test drives for a few hours? I doubt that will happen in July, seeing that they don't really need the reviews to further hype the car. I also don't think the July/August cars would be representative in terms of build quality, maybe not the best candidate for review.

 

[AlanSqB]

Lots of veterans working for Tesla. Great opportunity to highlight their service and how amazing veteran employees can be for an employer to bring a few up of them up and hand over the cars.