Supercharger growth

[Klaus]

Here is the html copied from @Cottonwood's post in Tapatalk: http://supercharge.info/"]Supercharger.Info

That doesn't say "Superchargers". Now we have 3 spellings, only one of which is correct, which makes it even more confusing for users who are not clicking the link but try to remember it for future use

 

[Cottonwood]

I believe that @Cottonwood used the correct URL in his post. He used <supercharge.info>

The HTML title tag at that site is "Superchargers".

My bad edit. Corrected. Thanks for letting me know.

Here is the way the hyperlink should have been: Supercharge.Info and here is what goes to make it: {url="http://supercharge.info/"}Supercharge.Info{/url}, substitute "[" for "{" and "]" for "}" in the actual source.

I like to see Supercharge.Info instead of Superchargers and sometimes forget to delete the "rs", etc. in my edits. Sorry. :redface:

 

[chickensevil]

To help I distinctly remember at the time of that letter being released (because I was very intent on seeing if they would hit 400 before the ER... which sadly didn't happen) that I recall Tesla vs Supercharge being off by about 3 at the time. Conveniently the Tesla website did an update push to the supercharger section on the day of release, probably because they knew it would be in the letter.

Counting superchargers and the progress of the gigafactory are two things that are always talked about in their current state as opposed to speaking about data that is over 1.5 months old. Are you going to complain that they put a photo of the gigafactory that was taken like 2 days prior to the letter going out because it wasn't a photo from Dec?

Neither of those directly impacts their financial statements so it makes more sense to just give the data as it was at the time, rather than give out old information that anyone would have known already by just the smallest amount of googling.

edit: to make it perfectly clear, the 380 number from the letter was based on Feb 11, 2015 current data as opposed to December data.

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The *REAL* question: When he said they would double the number did he mean as of Jan 1 to Dec 30, as of Feb 11 to Dec 30, or Feb 11 to whenever they post Q4 ER next year?

Either way, I think we are getting a little too in the weeds here. If they build out north of 300 charging locations this year it will still be VERY impressive and I don't think anyone is going to quip over a few charging locations here or there.

Also, in a semantics kind of way, they said "chargers" would double, which at the time had also just crossed 2,000. If they are "doubling chargers" that doesn't necessarily mean they will double the sites... it could mean that they will double the chargers. So we will hit 4,000 chargers within 1 year (maybe a bit less depending on when they started the counter). If they add 2 more stalls to all the current sites (not an unthinkable act), that would give 760 chargers added without ever upping their site count (based on 380 number). Or looking at it another way, the current average number of chargers is 5.5 per location. If they wanted to up that average to say, 8 (also not unreasonable) then that would be 1,023 added without ever upping the site counts. So half of this year's growth, strictly speaking, *could* be accomplished through site expansion as opposed to new sites.

Realistically, it will be a mix of the two that will lead them toward 4,000 chargers within 1 year. But that is technically the metric they are self-measuring by as of the latest postings and comments.

 

[Robert.Boston]

To @chickensevil's point, many of us on the east coast would cheer loudly for a refresh of the Newark, DE Supercharger site, which currently has 4 old (90 kW max) Superchargers but needs at least 4 more of the new ones. They could leave the old ones for fogies like me with "A" batteries, or upgrade the whole site to new 135 kW units. This upgrade would have more practical impact than adding many of the new sites.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Odd that we haven't seen a post in this thread for quite some time, seemed like it was a mainstay for awhile. Looks like we're now up to 460 worldwide superchargers.

Superchargers

Looking ahead, if we use 333 and the goal was 666, we are 206 away with 176 days left.

That's 1.17/day.
We're 189 days in with 127 new openings, a rate of 0.67/day.

Looking at 2014, Jan 1 - July 9, 72 chargers were opened, about .38/day.
July 10 - Dec 31, 196 chargers were opened, about 1.11/day.

So if we just replicate 2H of last year, we're in good shape. Hopefully we see some signs in the next couple of months of that 0.67 rate increasing to greater than 1. Though, it might happen mostly in October - December.

 

[chickensevil]

I think part of the quietness is caused by Tesla appearing to be far less aggressive (for whatever reason) in the rollout at this point. We pushed quite quickly from 200 to 300 and 300 to 400, and now it has been almost painful to watch us go to 500.

 

[jhm]

Nice analysis, Mind. Do we know why the rate goes up in H2?

 

[Robert.Boston]

Nice analysis, Mind. Do we know why the rate goes up in H2?

Performance-based annual bonuses?

 

[trils0n]

Could be as simple as having their final Supercharger budget for the year. (When I worked as a telecom contractor, lots of our business came in the last quarter when our customer's IT departments had to spend their annual budget)

 

[Drucifer]

I'm just hoping they are keeping the crews in the Northeast for the summer and they come back to the southeast as the weather gets cold, so we can get stuff done faster. Right now there is only 1 crew here and they just left Nashville for Norfolk, VA. 1 crew!

 

[Crowded Mind]

Could be as simple as having their final Supercharger budget for the year. (When I worked as a telecom contractor, lots of our business came in the last quarter when our customer's IT departments had to spend their annual budget)

This is along the lines of what I've been pondering. They may be trying to keep expenses lower in Q1 and Q2, and ramp up Supercharger openings when they have higher cash flow in Q3 and Q4. I'll leave it to someone more well versed in the financials to speculate on the likelihood of that theory. It would seem like more construction over the summer would generally be easier, but again, not my area of expertise.

 

[Todd Burch]

Nice analysis, Mind. Do we know why the rate goes up in H2?

Weather is probably a huge factor.

 

[jhm]

Could be as simple as having their final Supercharger budget for the year. (When I worked as a telecom contractor, lots of our business came in the last quarter when our customer's IT departments had to spend their annual budget)

I've noticed that most of the utility solar installations get completed in fourth quarter as well.

I'm going to take a trip from Atlanta to Charleston this month. Tesla says they're going to put a Supercharger in August. This location makes the most direct route possible. I'm losing hope Tesla well install this in time for me. I'll need to add an hour to the trip going through Macon and Savanah. So waiting until Q4 to get things done is not so good for customers.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I've noticed that most of the utility solar installations get completed in fourth quarter as well.

I'm going to take a trip from Atlanta to Charleston this month. Tesla says they're going to put a Supercharger in August. This location makes the most direct route possible. I'm losing hope Tesla well install this in time for me. I'll need to add an hour to the trip going through Macon and Savanah. So waiting until Q4 to get things done is not so good for customers.

How spoiled we get. When I got my car there were no supercharger on the east coast and Delaware charger became only one for almost a year.

 

[cpa]

I'll throw my $.02 out there...

Another factor could be that Tesla might have a systematic method for determining SC placements. They must have some sort of "master plan;" just looking at the current, 2015, and 2016 maps indicates as such. I am sure that the process is extremely easy in many locations, but excruciatingly difficult and frustrating in others. (Bishop, California comes to mind.) Tesla assumes that there will be an "average" of X days from initial discussion and planning to completion. They pursue those routes and locations according to their plan. When issues arise, they work to correct them to try to get these highways and areas open first. If an area (like Bishop) becomes unworkable (cannot find a suitable location with reasonable rent) during the early parts of their planning, it gets tabled until the next round. This may be partly due to the final determination of Supercharger placements. The Supercharger team may have to rework their locations and spacing if one planned city falls off the map, as it were.

I do not think that Tesla is saying, "Well, since we are experiencing problems along this route, we will shift our emphasis to this other route instead," just so they can meet a "number" of completed Superchargers. And, it does not make any economic sense to build isolated, outlying Superchargers today, if access to them (say, Bismarck, North Dakota) won't be for another 12-18 months.

 

[jhm]

How spoiled we get. When I got my car there were no supercharger on the east coast and Delaware charger became only one for almost a year.

Is it spoiled to want to be able to tell family and friends what an easy trip it was? Personally, I can put up with the wait, but I'd rather be spreading positive word-of-mouth.

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I'll throw my $.02 out there...

Another factor could be that Tesla might have a systematic method for determining SC placements. They must have some sort of "master plan;" just looking at the current, 2015, and 2016 maps indicates as such. I am sure that the process is extremely easy in many locations, but excruciatingly difficult and frustrating in others. (Bishop, California comes to mind.) Tesla assumes that there will be an "average" of X days from initial discussion and planning to completion. They pursue those routes and locations according to their plan. When issues arise, they work to correct them to try to get these highways and areas open first. If an area (like Bishop) becomes unworkable (cannot find a suitable location with reasonable rent) during the early parts of their planning, it gets tabled until the next round. This may be partly due to the final determination of Supercharger placements. The Supercharger team may have to rework their locations and spacing if one planned city falls off the map, as it were.

I do not think that Tesla is saying, "Well, since we are experiencing problems along this route, we will shift our emphasis to this other route instead," just so they can meet a "number" of completed Superchargers. And, it does not make any economic sense to build isolated, outlying Superchargers today, if access to them (say, Bismarck, North Dakota) won't be for another 12-18 months.

Yeah, I can see that sort of thing coming up. In my area, they first worked out I95 from the the North East down the coast to Florida. Recently they finished I75 from the Great Lakes through Atlanta on to Florida and down I85 down to the Gulf Coast. So what is missing for Atlanta it north on I85 and across I20, and these are the routes that matter the most to me personally. Regardless, their planning process seems to be to work along major routes. So like a string of Christmas lights, problems with one location can throw off other locations along the route.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Is it spoiled to want to be able to tell family and friends what an easy trip it was? Personally, I can put up with the wait, but I'd rather be spreading positive word-of-mouth.

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Yeah, I can see that sort of thing coming up. In my area, they first worked out I95 from the the North East down the coast to Florida. Recently they finished I75 from the Great Lakes through Atlanta on to Florida and down I85 down to the Gulf Coast. So what is missing for Atlanta it north on I85 and across I20, and these are the routes that matter the most to me personally. Regardless, their planning process seems to be to work along major routes. So like a string of Christmas lights, problems with one location can throw off other locations along the route.

Just commenting that instead of moaning about a particular charger not appearing immediately, we should be exalting in the speed of this deployment. Despite all the other priorities and need to conserve cash we should be congratulating them on what they have accomplished.

 

[ecarfan]

Just commenting that instead of moaning about a particular charger not appearing immediately, we should be exalting in the speed of this deployment. Despite all the other priorities and need to conserve cash we should be congratulating them on what they have accomplished.

Agreed. Tesla has taken the initiative to do what no other car manufacturer in history has done successfully: build out nationwide networks of vehicle energy supply stations across the globe. And they have to tie into existing public utility infrastructure after finding sites on private property that require lease negotiations and jumping through hoops to get permits. It's a very challenging task and there are numerous obstacles that have to be overcome at each site. It is amazing to me that Tesla has been able to build out so many sites so quickly. No other company has the will and the vision to accomplish this. The Supercharger network advantage is a formidable one that will serve Tesla well.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Here are some summary facts from the supercharger.info site:

	North America
	Installed	Change
12/31/13	50
3/31/14	82	32
6/30/14	98	16
9/30/14	117	19
12/31/14	152	35
3/31/15	194	42
6/30/15	213	19

So, Q2 was definitely a big slow-down from Q1, but we have to keep in mind that Q1 was a record-setting quarter.

 

[jhm]

Here are some summary facts from the supercharger.info site:

	North America
	Installed	Change
12/31/13	50
3/31/14	82	32
6/30/14	98	16
9/30/14	117	19
12/31/14	152	35
3/31/15	194	42
6/30/15	213	19

So, Q2 was definitely a big slow-down from Q1, but we have to keep in mind that Q1 was a record-setting quarter.

Nice chart. Q2 is down in both years. That's what I find puzzling.