Supercharger growth

[Saghost]

A quick BOTEC on this: Approximately 270 SC stations installed in 2014, approximately 32,000 cars sold and assuming $2000 per car used for the SCs (all your numbers from above in this thread) that would be $237,000 per SC. Sounds about right, what do you think?

Well, let's see. If you assume Tesla has no margin built in to the $1500 cost of the second charger module option, then for each pair of stalls they need ~$18k in chargers, plus some additional electrical bits.

So for the "typical" 6 stall supercharger site, figure maybe $75k in hardware if they don't include one of the 400 kWh battery packs they've been adding to load shave. (No idea what one of those packs costs - if you assume ~$100/kWh, it'd be ~$40k.)

Installation is undoubtedly a bunch of money, but I really don't have a way to guess.

Tesla also needs to set aside money for electricity and/or solar panels to generate that electricity. Figure the planned operating life of the supported cars is 10 years? - and make an assumption about Supercharger use (2,000 miles per car per year?) and you can guess the magnitude.

Using your numbers, that's about 120 cars per site - 240,000 miles per year, 2.4 million miles. At 3 miles per kWh, that's 800,000 kWh. At my residential any time rate, that'd be about $100k in electricity. I suspect Tesla gets their electricity a lot cheaper than that, though.

Lots of assumptions there which I've tried to point out - any or all are subject to discussion. It does look like I'm getting to the ~$240k neighborhood with my assembled costs - plus or minus 50% based on my opinion of the inaccuracy of the guesses herein.
Walter

 

[flankspeed8]

I think the supercharger network is overbuilt in quite a few locations today. They could deal with a lot more cars than they see in any given time. If Tesla adds 60% cars in 2015, some sites might need to be expanded. But not all sites must be expanded by 60%. There is capacity left to close gaps and expand into void areas.

Tesla claims the superchargers are marketing. They can (and do) invest much more than $2k per car sold.

Totally agree. I know that they are going to be built where the customers are, but how many does southern California need? Meanwhile, huge swatch of cold, midwestern states are barren. Super Charging is more important in a climate with average winter temps of 0-15 degrees than down south. Iowa is a crossroad of the nation, yet no Super Chargers there. Not much in the way of the next year either. I know that Iowa hasn't played nice with Tesla, but don't punish the people that might want to be able to drive from Minneapolis to Denver or Omaha.

 

[Saghost]

I think the supercharger network is overbuilt in quite a few locations today. They could deal with a lot more cars than they see in any given time. If Tesla adds 60% cars in 2015, some sites might need to be expanded. But not all sites must be expanded by 60%. There is capacity left to close gaps and expand into void areas.

Tesla claims the superchargers are marketing. They can (and do) invest much more than $2k per car sold.

I certainly wasn't intending to suggest that the only thing Tesla should do this year is expand existing sites. There are still a bunch of locations to fill in the grids I'd like to see before I buy one (hopefully in the fall of next year - not that I'm waiting for the rollout, it'd just be nice to have. The delay is more about finances and the forever mysterious Model X.))

All I was trying to say is that there are a few locations (mostly in So Cal I believe) that may be starting to have utilization approaching 100% in normal travel hours, which it might make sense to expand (or supplement/bypass with nearby places) - and that any expansion effort takes from the same parts, labor, and budget pool that new sites rely on.
Walter

 

[johnnyS]

The model works as long as Tesla is growing. When I went to the supercharger announcement back in the fall of 2012, Elon stated that the supercharger network will produce all the power needed so that we will be traveling on sunshine. The theory was that some sites will produce more than needed and the sites in less sunny locations may never have solar canopies. In the Barstow thread there is a rough calculation that the new solar canopy will not come close to meeting actual demand. Barstow is just about ideal for solar, so if Barstow cannot meet demand what supercharger station will? I suppose a supercharger station in remote location with few charges per day may. I find this realization disappointing that my road trips will not be powered by solar.

Someday we will have another recession and the demand for $100,000 Teslas may go way down for a period of time. What happens to the supercharger network when times get tough? Only a few superchargers have solar canopies and only a few have on site storage batteries. As the number grows, the cost to operate and maintain the network grows.

 

[jerry33]

The model works as long as Tesla is growing. When I went to the supercharger announcement back in the fall of 2012, Elon stated that the supercharger network will produce all the power needed so that we will be traveling on sunshine. The theory was that some sites will produce more than needed and the sites in less sunny locations may never have solar canopies.

1. It's far more important for Tesla sales to get as many locations as possible as quickly as possible.
2. It's expected that they will backfill solar canopies later.
3. There would be many locations, especially in the Midwest, that would produce extra power.
4. They may also be waiting for the solar panel factory that was purchased last year to provide some very high output panels. There's little point in putting them in now just to put them in, when better ones could be put in by waiting a bit.

 

[Saghost]

Someday we will have another recession and the demand for $100,000 Teslas may go way down for a period of time. What happens to the supercharger network when times get tough? Only a few superchargers have solar canopies and only a few have on site storage batteries. As the number grows, the cost to operate and maintain the network grows.

It all depends on how Tesla built their funding. If the funded it the way I put together the estimate above, it won't be an issue - they'd have set aside capitol to cover the electricity they'll need as part of the Supercharger investment, and reduced sales would just mean fewer new chargers - which won't be needed because there are fewer new cars to use them (aside from the disappointment from the overall map not covering some of the new areas.)

If they spent every dollar on expanding the network, then the money to maintain the network (including electricity) would have to come from current returns/capitol, which could have a negative impact if sales tanked badly enough.

I really don't see that happening - after all, Tesla is the first car company to get customer funding ahead of building the cars. (I read an article about their creative funding approach a couple years ago) I'm sure they are laying away some funds to cover future operating expenses - and I really doubt that a recession will have that much impact on their operations anyway.
Walter

 

[jhm]

The construction crew at Cabazon told me that they had installed Blanding and Moab. The foreman said that they prepared the infrastructure for six stalls even though there are only four available for use currently at each site. I would suspect that if the time comes to expand at those sites, that permitting and construction delays would be minimized as the wiring and transformer are already in place.

This strategy of over building the infrastructure at conception might be more common than we think, particularly at the more rural locations.

This makes a lot of sense. Locking in locations is tough. As they grow by 50% per year, once the use of level requires 4 stalls in a location, they are going to need 2 more the next year. If they run into snags trying to get new locations nearby, then they at least have the option to add 2 stalls to an existing location.

Remember when you are growing at 50% per year, what appears to be overbuilt right now can very quickly become painfully inadequate in a few years.

 

[ecarfan]

A quick BOTEC on this: Approximately 270 SC stations installed in 2014 and assuming $2000 per car used for the SCs (your numbers from above in this thread), with approx. 32,000 cars sold that would be $237,000 per SC. Sounds about right, what do you think?

That is about right based on extensive discussions in this forum about how much it costs to build the average Supercharger location. They aren't very expensive in the scheme of things. The Superchargers are literally self-financing: sell more Teslas, build more Superchargers.

@VolkerP, in some parts of the U.S. It may seem like the Supercharger network is "overbuilt" right now, but Tesla is thinking ahead and at the rate they are selling cars they are going to need a lot more locations in the next year or two. Which Tesla clearly understands based on the 2016 SC map on the website.

 

[jhm]

Tesla webpage is at 403 Supercharger stations. When will we hit 500?

It's definitely not overbuilt for Georgia.

 

[MrPinrel]

Has anybody counted the difference in number of dots between the supercharger map as of January 1 2015 and Teslas current 2015 target map? We know Tesla has said they plan to increase the network by 50% in 2015, if the difference in dots is less than a 50% increase that would hint at some "yet to be published" locations materializing in 2015. If the number more or less matches then we would know that "what you see on the 2015 map is what you are going to get"

 

[jhm]

Superchargers
I would encourage people to look at the charts in the above link. Musk has reiterated a commitment to double the number of superchargers this year. At the endo of 2014, the count stood at 323. Today the count is at 403, a YTD gain of 25%. Perhaps the final target for the year is 650. So Tesla is maintaining a good pace for the year.

Looking at the second chart, which breaks out the NA, EU, and APAC regions tells quit a story for the year. NA is growing faster than last year. EU is advancing a little slower than last year. And APAC, largely China, has stalled out. This may reflect Tesla's sales outlook for the year. Given the strong USD, it is natural that Tesla would seek most of its growth in the US this year. Meanwhile, Tesla is struggling to gain its footing in China, and in the midst of that reorganization, it may be the best time to expand Supercharging.

Expanding the Supercharging network is largely a marketing investment. There are many wonderful markets within North America where Tesla can grow and where the investment in charging infrastructure will yield a solid return. It shows good sense for Tesla to target these investment where they will motivate the most incremental sales.

 

[Johan]

The genius of the aggressive build out of the SC network impresses me every time I think about it.

The ROI is so great and can't be measured in $$$ (only). Just think of all the sales it generates, publicity, goodwill and just imagine the value of the first mover advantage!

Just like the OTA updates every new SC built increases the functionality and value of every car produced.

In the future I'm sure history will show that the way Tesla rapidly built out and kept expanding the network these first years (I believe they will keep the pace up at least until 2020) was perhaps even more important to their success than the quality, performance and functionality of the cars themselves (of course this too is very important).

 

[Rockster]

The genius of the aggressive build out of the SC network impresses me every time I think about it.

The ROI is so great and can't be measured in $$$ (only). Just think of all the sales it generates, publicity, goodwill and just imagine the value of the first mover advantage!

Just like the OTA updates every new SC built increases the functionality and value of every car produced.

In the future I'm sure history will show that the way Tesla rapidly built out and kept expanding the network these first years (I believe they will keep the pace up at least until 2020) was perhaps even more important to their success than the quality, performance and functionality of the cars themselves (of course this too is very important).

In Norway are the Superchargers a significant factor in promoting sales? I ask because I was quite surprised when I began displaying my Model S at local car shows and very few people with whom I spoke knew that the Supercharger network even exists. This is from among car enthusiasts attending a car show. I firmly believe that an established network is a HUGE factor in Tesla's ultimate success but I'm just not seeing much public awareness yet.

 

[Gerasimental]

In Norway are the Superchargers a significant factor in promoting sales? I ask because I was quite surprised when I began displaying my Model S at local car shows and very few people with whom I spoke knew that the Supercharger network even exists. This is from among car enthusiasts attending a car show. I firmly believe that an established network is a HUGE factor in Tesla's ultimate success but I'm just not seeing much public awareness yet.

German perspective here: I totally agree. Many, even in the auto-savvy community, are oblivious to the existence or extent of the Supercharger network. Many of them people with a very high opinion of Model S, but still often very sceptical about range and charging problems. Also fully agree that having a superb(ly efficient) SpC network, with enough awareness of it, is absolutely essential to Tesla's success in Europe at least.

 

[bluenation]

i guess thats the cost of zero marketing.

kinda surprising, given the constant media articles on the S...

 

[Johan]

In Norway are the Superchargers a significant factor in promoting sales? I ask because I was quite surprised when I began displaying my Model S at local car shows and very few people with whom I spoke knew that the Supercharger network even exists. This is from among car enthusiasts attending a car show. I firmly believe that an established network is a HUGE factor in Tesla's ultimate success but I'm just not seeing much public awareness yet.

It's vital. My WAG is it's the decisive factor in more than 50% of purchases.

 

[Cobos]

In Norway are the Superchargers a significant factor in promoting sales? I ask because I was quite surprised when I began displaying my Model S at local car shows and very few people with whom I spoke knew that the Supercharger network even exists. This is from among car enthusiasts attending a car show. I firmly believe that an established network is a HUGE factor in Tesla's ultimate success but I'm just not seeing much public awareness yet.

As a Norwegian that ordered my Model S in 2009 I've been a fairly active user on this forum since then and I intended to buy the S40 but ended up buying the S60, I never thought I'd use the superchargers much but after one long-range trip I can't praise them enough. So even for customers that thought they would have little personal value for them, they completely change their opinion after one use. They are that magical.

Cobos

 

[RobStark]

Tesla has all of Norway covered with Superchargers save the very Northern tip and Tesla now has ~3% market share. Not just BEV market share but ~3% of the entire market.

I can't see how the combination of the two doesn't create awareness of the network and influence buyers.

This month should see 1500+ Norwegian deliveries? Splashing Tesla all over the Norwegian media for a few days?

BTW There is some overlap between being a car guy and having EV awareness but not necessarily. Just because a petrolhead knows everything about Toyota to RAM to Koenigsegg does not mean he knows about BEVs.

But if you are seriously considering a BEV for your next purchase there is a very good chance you have heard of Tesla and the Supercharger network.

 

[austinEV]

I was talking to an older couple that were vaguely aware of Teslas but they didn't know about the supercharger network. I told them it was free to use and that was the thing that flabbergasted them.

When Tesla does advertise, talking about the network will be a major, major part of the sell. They are using this time wisely, while they are production constrained to build out the network. Imagine if in 2017 say, they launch an ad campaign and are able to show the 'coverage map' that covers the entire country. Imagine at that time you are an average buyer, and didn't know about the network. It blows you away. You can buy a 35k model 3 and roadtrip for free? People won't even believe it at first.

 

[Merrill]

Very common for me to be talking with people that are very familiar with Tesla and have never heard about the Supercharging network. I was at the local supercharger yesterday and a lady was walking by with her dog as I was plugging in and asked how long it takes to charge. When I told her she was pretty impressed.