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Mad Hungarian
Member
If the SC stations in CA and other places are already starting to max out with the current fleet of around 100K cars on the road, and Tesla reaches their stated production goals of ramping up to 500K vehicles per year by 2020, then the network actually needs to grow by at least a factor of 10 between now and then. And will need to keep increasing by pretty impressive amount every year there after just to keep pace. I sure hope that's being planned for...
The purpose of the superchargers is for long distance travel and trips. +90% of the time Tesla's should be charged by home or destination charging. There shouldn't need to be as many as their are petrol stations/pumps for ICE cars.
Must also ask the question more sites or more chargers at sites?
Must also ask the question more sites or more chargers at sites?
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
I don't think it is that simple, or that so many are needed. There are relatively few heavily used Supercharger locations and those will need to have greatly increased capacity. But the vast majority of locations used for long distance travel are very far from being overcrowded and will need only a modest increase.
Perhaps my perspective is different since I live surrounded by Supercharger Centers in remote locations that figure to be able to handle a considerable increase in total car numbers since few will be traveling through each location at any given time. I can't imagine any of the six locations within Tesla range of my home that will be crowded by 2020 even at current numbers of Superchargers.
Here in USA "flyover country" the network has a long way to go before it is overcrowded. It is only those locations near huge population centers, or along heavily traveled corridors, that need a drastic increase in the number of Superchargers. So, once the main routes are covered the growth can go to areas with large populations and traffic volumes.
First of all, that's not how queuing theory works.
Second of all, (after a quick search): Capacity of Superchargers Using an Erlang-B Model Even a simple of doubling of stalls at a supercharger increases the capacity by about 3x. It's not linear.
Third of all, assuming the model 3 is released on time (late 2017, early 2018), you think they're going to be able to ramp up production from 0 to 500k units in 2 years? Even with the GF up and running? I'm not convinced.
And lastly, Tesla added 114 superchargers in 2015 in the US, for a total of 265 by the end of 2015. Even if we assume the ramp is linear (it likely wont be once the Model 3s start being produced) in 4 years, the number of stalls would have roughly tripped from where are now. That means people are going to have more options of places to stop. Think gas stations. You see one with a long wait, look at your fuel gauge, eh, I can make it to the next one, and you go. If you tripple the number of superchargers, sure, they wont be as ubiquitous as gas stations, but it will give people more options as to where to stop.
Exactly. You need a gas station within drive-able distance from your house because you can't refuel at home.
And even then there are 115k gas stations for 255M cars.
And Tesla will have ~750 SpCs for 500k cars.
I'd take the latter proportions any day.
Mad Hungarian
Member
True, the overcrowding will be much slower to come in the more remote areas where they're currently seldom used, so perhaps my factor-of-10 was a little high. But I also think the much lower price point of the M3 might encourage adoption at a higher rate in rural areas when compared to the more urban-centric demographic of the MS. And on the subject of more remote or "flyover" areas, we have almost exclusively that in Canada and it's going to need a serious increase in chargers to allow anything resembling the travel options the U.S. currently enjoys. Of course that's going to be tough to justify considering how small our market is up here.:frown:
I did quickly read Erlang-B thread prior to posting, and I see how the additional stalls provide a better-than-linear improvement. But on the flip side I think that the M3 is going to be appealing to a much wider, more mainstream audience who won't all have the same sense of adventure and patience as the MS/MX early adopters and they're likely going to be less willing to route plan or wait at chargers. They'll be demanding a closer-to-ICE experience in terms of hassle free travel. So I'd counter that the number of chargers needs to increase not only to provide the coverage/level of service that's currently in place but it must better so that people virtually never have to wait any longer than one would at a gas station. I do also believe that Tesla will hit their intended production target by 2020. But even if it turns out only to be 2/3rds that at 350,000/yr by 2020, that's still 3.5 times as many cars as Tesla has made to date being added to the roads ever year from that point on. That's going to add up pretty quickly. I'm still thinking that adding 100 - 120 stations a year isn't going to cut it when we get to full M3 production.
Maybe I'm still overstating the case, I am most definitely a very green noob here and have a lot to learn, but that's why I really appreciate the quality of the discussions here and the time people take to help people like me get the story straight. Whatever the correct number/density of SC's turns out to be for a 1 million+ vehicle fleet in 5 years, at the end of the day I just want don't want Tesla to allow anything to get in the way of the Master Plan working.
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ImEric
Member
There's another option: Pay up front for limited use. IE, the same $2500.00 charge, but instead of that covering lifetime unlimited use, it covers say 10,000 kWh and you see that draining every time you supercharge. If you run out, you have to pay again. This would effectively allow most people to use the car for the entirety of their car's lifespan, for as many long distance trips as they want to plan, and even short distance, convenience (just-in-case) charging if they want. But people who charge everyday would eventually have to pay again. If they make the secondary blocks cost $500.00 for an additional 2500 kWh, that would deter people from local charging if they can avoid it ($0.20/kWh at the supercharges, $0.13/kWh at home) but for most people, that initial 10,000 kWh that comes with the car will keep them supercharging for life, since most people won't drive 30k-40k supercharger miles in their lives.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
It has been said multiple times. If they can keep the local charging under control, Tesla's model can work regardless of volume. They might have to adjust how much they set aside per car ($500 right now), but the prepaid model can scale with the volume.
The idea I have been pushing is to have paid stations in the urban areas. The situation may turn out that people still hog the free stations (if there is one sufficiently close) but at least you have the option to pay and get a charge without waiting.
The idea I have been pushing is to have paid stations in the urban areas. The situation may turn out that people still hog the free stations (if there is one sufficiently close) but at least you have the option to pay and get a charge without waiting.
TMobe
I have forgotten more than I remember
Musk in Paris on Jan 30 2016 at a owners meeting stated he plans to add the standard European connector to the Tesla Superchargers there to not obligate other manufactures to use a Tesla connector. He wants everyone to be able to use the SC's. Who knows...Model 3 may not be the only thing getting ready to clog the free juice. 
Musk in Paris on Jan 30 2016 at a owners meeting stated he plans to add the standard European connector to the Tesla Superchargers there to not obligate other manufactures to use a Tesla connector. He wants everyone to be able to use the SC's. Who knows...Model 3 may not be the only thing getting ready to clog the free juice.
CCS combo chargers are mandatory in every new fast charge station in Europe, it's a new law in all member countries. I guess they will put one CCS charger in every SC and you will have to pay to charge your BMW, audi...
Just a bit of correction here: As far as I know it is just Spain that actually has this new law yet. But it is a EU-directive, and it says that all member-states (including EEA) have to have this new law by November 2017.
And the directive clearly says that it need to be a CCS plug on every new or modified charging-stall, not just one pr. supercharger or supercharger-station.
Sorry, you are right (I thought it already was a law in the rest of Europe). Despite this, the spanish government has created a two year exemption with allows Tesla to install new superchargers without the CCS combo until late 2017.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
The exclusionary rhetoric upthread is disgraceful.
Garaged locals are not overrunning SCs, even in the #1 and #2 counties (for ownership) on the continent, and the notion of denying ownership to the non-garaged is laughable.
Some of you evidently think that the Model 3 will magically appear in droves. It won't. It will ramp up over the first year - two years and half the production will go overseas anyway.
If you want a group to be concerned about, be concerned about livery - not non-garaged owners.
Charging "local Model S/X owners" via some PPU SC model is a ludicrous non-starter of an idea and simply will never happen.
But thanks for the insight into how some of you think. It's pretty disappointing.
Garaged locals are not overrunning SCs, even in the #1 and #2 counties (for ownership) on the continent, and the notion of denying ownership to the non-garaged is laughable.
Some of you evidently think that the Model 3 will magically appear in droves. It won't. It will ramp up over the first year - two years and half the production will go overseas anyway.
If you want a group to be concerned about, be concerned about livery - not non-garaged owners.
Charging "local Model S/X owners" via some PPU SC model is a ludicrous non-starter of an idea and simply will never happen.
But thanks for the insight into how some of you think. It's pretty disappointing.
Sure. That's what I'm expecting -- ALMOST. But don't do it by kWh. Do it by time parked at the Supercharger, or number of Supercharger visits. Reason: there are laws restricting who can charging by kwh (sometimes saying only electric utilities can) which are a pain. There are basically no regulations on charging by the hour or per use.
I totally agree. PPU is going to be such a management nightmare and will be a hindrance to the Advent of Sustainable Transportation (TM). How the Model S and X are using it is the ideal way to go. Put the cost upfront ($2k seems reasonable). If you want it, you pay for it once. If you don't want it, you don't pay for it. If you buy a Model 3 with SuperCharging disabled and want it later, you pay for it ($2k if the car is more than 3 years old, or $2500 if the car is less than 3 years old might be reasonable).
Pay per kWh is fair, but if there are legal issues with that jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction, then obviously it's not a good way to go.
Pay per minute is stupid. What if you're being throttled because someone has the opposite stall as you are? What if you're doing a range charge and the taper has slowed down the charge rate?
Pay per location or distance from home is equally stupid. A local SuperCharger could be enabling you to do long-distance travel if it's the first stop on your leg away or back home.
As a few have said, PPU is such an accounting nightmare and I would LOVE to see someone justify the amount of work would be required to manage the system to be MORE profitable AND customer-friendly than to just charge a flat rate ONCE per VIN.
Discouraging this is actually the best argument for pay per minute. It's fine doing a range charge if you need it, but it should cost extra since you are tying up the supercharger a lot longer.
So you're discouraging use of a Tesla automobile to push it further into an EV desert? That does not sound like you're helping to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport.
No offense, but those of you in big urban areas have a slight ignorance of the reality of trying to operate an EV in an area where you may only have one or two (if you're lucky) DC fast chargers (let alone Super Chargers) within a 60 mile radius.
No offense, but those of you in big urban areas have a slight ignorance of the reality of trying to operate an EV in an area where you may only have one or two (if you're lucky) DC fast chargers (let alone Super Chargers) within a 60 mile radius.
Not at all. If you need to use superchargers you need to use them. Charges should be reasonable. The whole point of any charges at all is to discourage unnecessary use, not necessary use.
