Superchargers in California will be clogged in 12 months, unless?

[davinci2017]

Fremont and MV need to double in capacity, and maybe add new ones in SJ and along 237.

Model 3 charging will be paid, via the app I am assuming? That should imply newer Model S/X charging above limit and idle fees will also be charged the same way. The current user base will continue to come in for free charging, but expansion is in order to accommodate the ones who will pay for frequent use. Its short sighted to think folks will not be willing to pay to charge their cars much faster than home. Also a LOT of folks who get the 3 will live in apartments without proper arrangements to charge, these are folks who will use it more often than not. It is also silly to expect the demand to "automatically" go down because its no longer convenient. This will really ruin the experience for legitimate use cases and frustrate owners into not recommending the cars. Its a thin line.

I have no idea if any expansion is planned for these near-term though, but Fremont is becoming increasingly harder to use unless you pick some really odd hours. I do hope they double it by this year.

 

[Sasmania]

Fremont and MV need to double in capacity, and maybe add new ones in SJ and along 237.

Model 3 charging will be paid, via the app I am assuming? That should imply newer Model S/X charging above limit and idle fees will also be charged the same way. The current user base will continue to come in for free charging, but expansion is in order to accommodate the ones who will pay for frequent use. Its short sighted to think folks will not be willing to pay to charge their cars much faster than home. Also a LOT of folks who get the 3 will live in apartments without proper arrangements to charge, these are folks who will use it more often than not. It is also silly to expect the demand to "automatically" go down because its no longer convenient. This will really ruin the experience for legitimate use cases and frustrate owners into not recommending the cars. Its a thin line.

I have no idea if any expansion is planned for these near-term though, but Fremont is becoming increasingly harder to use unless you pick some really odd hours. I do hope they double it by this year.

Thinking even farther ahead... when the Tesla Network autonomous rideshare comes out there will be a huge need for local charging. Tesla will want to maximize the availability of the cars and get them back on the road ASAP, not being out of service waiting 9 hours on a slow charger. So, I'm all for in-city SC's as well. We will need as many as possible. On the upside, by the time the TN is out, we might have faster charging ready, as well as the cars can of course remove themselves from the SC the minute they are done, freeing up more slots.

 

[suraj1194]

Fremont and MV need to double in capacity, and maybe add new ones in SJ and along 237.

MV is pretty bad. I had to wait in a 2 deep line at 11pm once. So is Dublin - all but one stop there involved waiting in line. Fremont depends on time of day. I stop by there around 7pm and it's almost always available. I once tried to stop there around noon but there was a 4 deep line and I gave up on the idea of a quick chargeup .

 

[slevit1md]

I personally am not looking forward to the Model 3 release, particularly if they are able to produce anywhere near the volume that Tesla would like. Tesla is not keeping up with demand for superchargers, service, or body shops as it is, with only Model S and X available. There's no way that they'll have the appropriate infrastructure in place in 1 year (if they're able to produce a significant number of 3's). It will cause delays at superchargers, and I don't think that Model S/X owners, who financed the production of Model 3's, should have to wait any longer at superchargers than they already do. Ideally, I'd love to see a few supercharger stalls dedicated to S/X, although I don't see that happening.

As for the comment that you shouldn't buy the vehicle if you can't charge at home/work, I agree 100%. I'd take it a step further and say that you need to be able to charge at home. And I could care less who thinks it's elitist. If you can't find a way to make that happen, don't get the car. If you can't afford to make it happen, then you can't afford the car. Superchargers are meant for road trips, not so that you can keep topped off without a home charger.

I would really like to see Tesla verify that you have home charging available before selling people the vehicle. If that's not practical, then limit / disallow supercharger use within 25 miles of someone's home. Maybe allow a very small amount for emergency use. I think the idling fee and lack of unlimited supercharging going forward will help, but don't know that it will be enough.

I'm just as concerned about service when the 3's start being mass produced. Service was much better when I first got my S. Previously, they'd pick up my car for free from Toledo and take it to Cleveland, for free, any time I needed service. If something was an easy fix, someone was sent out to me to take care of it. Since I moved to Oregon, I've been told by the service center that this won't be happening, and I have to drive to Portland (about an hour and a half drive) every time I need anything done to the car. Their reasoning was that they don't have anywhere near the staff to be driving around, picking cars up or doing Ranger work. I do not think that driving this far for service is a reasonable expectation on Tesla's part. The relatively few number of owners of S/X's have made this doable for Tesla, but I doubt it's going to fly when 3's are out there in large numbers.

 

[Sasmania]

People keep forgetting that with the M3, and all the new cars coming off the line, is that SuperCharging is no longer free. Well, minus a small token amount a year.

This alone will take care of 90% of any "abuse" of the SC. Very few will SC when it's the same cost (or less) to do it at home. That, plus idle fees, plus future improvements: faster charging, autonomous charging (and moving when done) will solve any temporary issues that pop up. It's like everyone wants every SC to themselves and screw anyone else who wants the same benefit.

Everything is gonna be just fine, and I welcome anybody to the Tesla family regardless if they use 100% SuperChargers or never SuperCharge.

 

[azred]

Yea, I hadn't considered that the 60 would be a stretch. Fortunately not an issue for me in my mere P85D.

As far as destination charging when I visit my in-laws, even though we have the Fresno supercharger, I always plugin my 50 amp extension cord to their dryer outlet. Can you not plug in and charge at your son's house?

If panhandling electricity from family/friends dryer outlets turns out to be the best solution for traveling to large cities like Tucson, Tesla's future is not as bright as we hope. The pipedream 2017 Supercharger map does show a new site East of Tucson but that site is really only useful for traveling from Tucson to Texas. I understand that California is where Tesla started and has most of the cars. But I think it's a bad sign when a large city so close to California has been totally blown off without any Tesla presence save for a handful of destination chargers. I imagine there are Tesla owners in Tucson although I can't imagine why.

 

[TexasEV]

But I think it's a bad sign when a large city so close to California has been totally blown off without any Tesla presence save for a handful of destination chargers. I imagine there are Tesla owners in Tucson although I can't imagine why.

Why? Because Tesla owners in Tucson don't need a supercharger in Tucson. Don't most people in Tucson with the means to buy a Tesla live in houses with garages or carports?

Sure it would be nice when superchargers get built out heading east, but how many people drive from Tucson to Texas?

 

[smartypnz]

Fremont and MV need to double in capacity, and maybe add new ones in SJ and along 237.

Fremont 2 just south has 20 stalls (for about 1 1/2 years) waiting, I believe for the bldg next to it to be complete.

 

[calisnow]

I personally am not looking forward to the Model 3 release, particularly if they are able to produce anywhere near the volume that Tesla would like. Tesla is not keeping up with demand for superchargers, service, or body shops as it is, with only Model S and X available. There's no way that they'll have the appropriate infrastructure in place in 1 year (if they're able to produce a significant number of 3's). It will cause delays at superchargers, and I don't think that Model S/X owners, who financed the production of Model 3's, should have to wait any longer at superchargers than they already do. Ideally, I'd love to see a few supercharger stalls dedicated to S/X, although I don't see that happening.

As for the comment that you shouldn't buy the vehicle if you can't charge at home/work, I agree 100%. I'd take it a step further and say that you need to be able to charge at home. And I could care less who thinks it's elitist. If you can't find a way to make that happen, don't get the car. If you can't afford to make it happen, then you can't afford the car. Superchargers are meant for road trips, not so that you can keep topped off without a home charger.

I would really like to see Tesla verify that you have home charging available before selling people the vehicle. If that's not practical, then limit / disallow supercharger use within 25 miles of someone's home. Maybe allow a very small amount for emergency use. I think the idling fee and lack of unlimited supercharging going forward will help, but don't know that it will be enough.

I'm just as concerned about service when the 3's start being mass produced. Service was much better when I first got my S. Previously, they'd pick up my car for free from Toledo and take it to Cleveland, for free, any time I needed service. If something was an easy fix, someone was sent out to me to take care of it. Since I moved to Oregon, I've been told by the service center that this won't be happening, and I have to drive to Portland (about an hour and a half drive) every time I need anything done to the car. Their reasoning was that they don't have anywhere near the staff to be driving around, picking cars up or doing Ranger work. I do not think that driving this far for service is a reasonable expectation on Tesla's part. The relatively few number of owners of S/X's have made this doable for Tesla, but I doubt it's going to fly when 3's are out there in large numbers.

You're committing this logic sin people frequently fall in. It goes as follows:

1- I, internet hobbyist guy, just thought of obvious problem.
2- I bet nobody at Tesla has thought of this problem.
3 - I also can't imagine a solution to obvious problem.

Conclusion: Tesla is screwed and the sky is falling.

 

[jbcarioca]

...
.
I would really like to see Tesla verify that you have home charging available before selling people the vehicle. If that's not practical, then limit / disallow supercharger use within 25 miles of someone's home. Maybe allow a very small amount for emergency use. I think the idling fee and lack of unlimited supercharging going forward will help, but don't know that it will be enough.

...

In areas that have high Tesla density today this problem is pretty serious. Most of the world, even in Norway, is not quite so dire, partly because there is substantial non-Tesla charging infrastructure already in place. That is coming in Western US, but is certainly not yet sufficient. I do think you underestimate the role of ubiquitous Destination Chargers, CHAdeMO etc. Faster non-Supercharger options are proliferating nearly everywhere and Destination Chargers are rapidly growing.

The twelve months is really serious, though, and cannot be fixed without some of everything. Specifically, more stalls at MV won't help, but another giant location nearby might. I doubt that many more than 20 stalls per location will work well in practice. Considering Tesla density in the area, even a deal with Simon for a gaggle of Destination Chargers in Quarry Road parking might work, especially because the remaining chargers could be nearly Tesla-free then. In practice, and in short order, I think the really dense Tesla areas need a major push for gazillions of destination Chargers in shopping centers, office buildings and restaurants. Such areas should come close to emulating gasoline station access today, but with better amenities. Since so many Tesla employees are already in these areas they should know who to see and how to do it. Failing to do that might just foment rebellion, and we cannot have that!

We can not forget delivery, service centers and body shops either. Those are desperately needed in many areas around the world.

All this means Capex, sure, but Model 3's will drown the infrastructure if these are now addressed now!

Beyond California and the Pacific West, much of the US faces similar issues with fewer options than CA. Take a quick look at Miami, Chicago, New York, DC, not to mention the legally challenged TX, MI etc. Tesla must address all of this immediately while dealing with Canada, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, UK, Ireland, UAE, and so many others.

It would be daunting for anyone else. How about Tesla? I have no idea how to do all that but published 2017 plans really will not be adequate.

Sorry about dealing with non-California issues. Even though I was born in California I do see the rest of the world too...even though it is obviously less important.

 

[smsprague]

Why? Because Tesla owners in Tucson don't need a supercharger in Tucson. Don't most people in Tucson with the means to buy a Tesla live in houses with garages or carports?

Sure it would be nice when superchargers get built out heading east, but how many people drive from Tucson to Texas?

Owning my Tesla in Tucson for 3 years, I have never needed a Supercharger in town. I just top off in Casa Grande if needed. Granted you can only go west or north in a Tesla from Tucson. You can not go east without taking a crazy route. I agree about driving to Texas but it would be nice to be able to drive to Santa Fe. I can't see the need for a Sugercharger in Tucson for residents but it would be great for travelers which is the whole point and the whole California problem. Last year at the Oxnard Supercharger I had to wait 45 minutes while residents shopped at Whole Foods and charged.

 

[ucmndd]

Since I took delivery of my car in December I've used the Fresno, Rocklin, Folsom, Dublin, Napa, Vacaville, Manteca, Harris Ranch, and Atascadero Superchargers, most multiple times. Only place I've ever had to wait was Dublin.

The chargers placed for "long distance travel" seem to be doing fine 99% of the time - congestion problems seem to be almost exclusively limited to the Bay Area and greater Los Angeles.

 

[mikevbf]

Since I took delivery of my car in December I've used the Fresno, Rocklin, Folsom, Dublin, Napa, Vacaville, Manteca, Harris Ranch, and Atascadero Superchargers, most multiple times. Only place I've ever had to wait was Dublin.

The chargers placed for "long distance travel" seem to be doing fine 99% of the time - congestion problems seem to be almost exclusively limited to the Bay Area and greater Los Angeles.

Bay Area and Los Angelas super charger congestion could be a preview to much larger sections of the nationwide network getting congested if scaling is not done properly with the eventual mass production of the Model 3.

 

[BertL]

Since I took delivery of my car in December I've used the Fresno, Rocklin, Folsom, Dublin, Napa, Vacaville, Manteca, Harris Ranch, and Atascadero Superchargers, most multiple times. Only place I've ever had to wait was Dublin.

The chargers placed for "long distance travel" seem to be doing fine 99% of the time - congestion problems seem to be almost exclusively limited to the Bay Area and greater Los Angeles.

My experience is similar here in SoCal ... my use of Superchargers over the past 17 months has worked fine for my limited long-distance travel needs. I've only noted two chargers that can have lines at peak times (Primm & Barstow on Friday/Sunday afternoon/evening as people come and go to Vegas from SoCal) -- I personally try to take that into my planning by leaving a little earlier and have not had a problem that others sometimes still complain about.

FWIW, and unlike some that just seem to dive-in to their Tesla purchase -- before ordering my MS, I used one of the well-known trip mapping tools on the web to analyze my charging needs for both daily and longer-range trips I had taken in recent years, and a couple I'd like to take one day. It gave me confidence what I'd be able to accomplish with different battery sizes in normal/extreme weather conditions, how long the trip would take with increased "refuel" times, and where I would be dependent on Tesla's SpC Network or perhaps need secondary destination/fee-based chargers. I considered the need/cost for primarily charging at home before ordering my MS, and had a 100A-HPWC installed before I took delivery. I would not have purchased my MS if it had not been for the existing Tesla SpC Network that could have handled most, if not all, of my longer-distance needs. Still, just-in-case, I'm signed-up for several of the charging networks, and keep a CHAdeMO with other assorted optional adapters in my trunk, but have not yet needed to use any of them. My HPWC and Tesla's SpC Network have done a great job for me. Like others, I only hope Tesla does a superior job anticipating M3 volumes, so my occasional SpC need does not turn my Tesla ownership into a bad experience.

 

[ucmndd]

Bay Area and Los Angelas super charger congestion could be a preview to much larger sections of the nationwide network getting congested if scaling is not done properly with the eventual mass production of the Model 3.

I agree to an extent, however I see urban vs. long haul chargers as at least somewhat different issues.

The network needs to be scaled appropriately in both cases, but urban chargers are mostly about convenience and rural chargers are mostly about need. I think the only way to effectively control congestion in urban areas is going to be economically. Add more "free" or extremely cheap chargers, more people are going to be incentivized to use them until they once again become congested and reach an equilibrium where some people no longer think it's worth their time.

On the other hand, if you need a charge in Beaver, UT on your way to Salt Lake City, it doesn't really matter how much it costs or how long you have to wait.

 

[azred]

Why? Because Tesla owners in Tucson don't need a supercharger in Tucson. Don't most people in Tucson with the means to buy a Tesla live in houses with garages or carports?

Sure it would be nice when superchargers get built out heading east, but how many people drive from Tucson to Texas?

You answered your first question for me. Thanks for the help, but let me answer for myself. In answer to why, I wouldn't buy a Tesla if I lived in Tucson because Tesla has no presence at all in Tucson save for a handful of poorly located destination chargers. Maybe you don't see the lack of a don't-call-it-a-dealership or service center as a big deal, but I certainly would if I still lived in Tucson and was considering a new car purchase. The lack of a supercharger nearby is an issue but mostly for those of us who travel the Phoenix-Tucson corridor frequently, probably not so much for Tucsonans unless they would like to have California or Texas Tesla owners attempt to visit them.

 

[bxr140]

As for the comment that you shouldn't buy the vehicle if you can't charge at home/work, I agree 100%. I'd take it a step further and say that you need to be able to charge at home. And I could care less who thinks it's elitist. If you can't find a way to make that happen, don't get the car. If you can't afford to make it happen, then you can't afford the car. Superchargers are meant for road trips, not so that you can keep topped off without a home charger.

LOL. The VERY occasional wait at a supercharger simply does not support an authoritarian approach to the solution.

Also:
1. Tesla disagrees with you
2. Elon disagrees with you
3. Those in favor of mass EV adoption disagree with you.

 

[suraj1194]

My own view is that Tesla will simply divest of the entire Supercharger network in the future. Does GE or Ford run gas stations ? No. Superchargers were a solution to the chicken and egg problem of electric car use. No one wanted electric cars without the ability to charge them on the road and no one wanted to build the infrastructure without enough cars on the road. Tesla just built that network.

But now, with the government itself pushing hard to massively expand the EV charging network nationwide and many other companies doing the same, Superchargers are just one of many options. Progressively, standards will coalesce, and the notion of free charging will disappear, in favor of market priced fast charging options served through one or more standardized interfaces.

As things head that way, Tesla's Supercharger network is simply an asset on its books that they can divest while focusing their energy on the cars themselves as opposed to the charging network scaling and associated investment.

 

[sorka]

Since I took delivery of my car in December I've used the Fresno, Rocklin, Folsom, Dublin, Napa, Vacaville, Manteca, Harris Ranch, and Atascadero Superchargers, most multiple times. Only place I've ever had to wait was Dublin.

The chargers placed for "long distance travel" seem to be doing fine 99% of the time - congestion problems seem to be almost exclusively limited to the Bay Area and greater Los Angeles.

As long as you're not in a major metropolitan area it's unlikely you'll find a wait unless it's a holiday and then it can get dicey anywhere in California.

 

[sorka]

LOL. The VERY occasional wait at a supercharger simply does not support an authoritarian approach to the solution.

Also:
1. Tesla disagrees with you
2. Elon disagrees with you
3. Those in favor of mass EV adoption disagree with you.

I'm in favor of mass EV adoption and I agree with slevit1md and disagree with you. I also disagree that 1 and 2 are valid reasons since Tesla wants to sell cars.