Taycan impact on Model S - a theory I hope is not true

[Kandiru]

Without a meaningful Level 3 charging network the Taycan will remain a glorified city car for the nouveaux riches.

This is where all are behind Tesla, and all put the cart before the horse by doing grandiose projects with little infrastructure planning
hoping to attract the buyers by looks and technology.

Fortunately the internet is there, and at the income levels required, the educated decision buying will sway in favor of Tesla again.
I am not talking about the pre-institutionally bored and trust fund kids of course.

 

[ucmndd]

Without a meaningful Level 3 charging network the Taycan will remain a glorified city car for the nouveaux riches.

While I don't disagree, if anyone has the interest and pile of burning cash to do this, it's VW (i.e. Electrify America).

 

[DCEV]

There will surely be some people buying a Taycan who would have otherwise bought an S. The Taycan will probably be a very good, well-made car, even if its batteries and electrics won't be as advanced as Tesla's. It will also probably be more expensive than advertised. Porsche's long-standing practice is that the base price for a car is usually increased by 30, 50 or even 75 % once all the options you really want to have are added. Does anyone really think they'll resist the temptation to add pricey options to the Taycan to make it more profitable? (But ok, Tesla should too - I'd pay good money for, say, a functioning sunroof. Why leave money on the table?)

A functioning sunroof would be a nice differentiator not just with the Taycan but also the Model 3.

 

[CarlK]

I'm probably in the target demographic. I replaced a 911 with a Model S partially because my kids outgrew the rear seats. Now I have a Taycan reserved to replace the MS.

In the 3 years I've owned my MS, I rarely used the superchargers. Having it topped off every morning has met my needs 99.9% of the time. I did do a 1200 mile road trip, partly through quite desolate areas, which was nicely uneventful with the usual planning involved to avoid range anxiety.

Porsche will have their own super-fast superchargers at their US dealerships and along the usual highways, about 500 locations to start. Since Porsche VW and Audi are all the same parent company, the Taycan will also be chargeable on VW's $2B Electrify America charging network, as well as the usual existing open standard charging stations. Certainly not up to Tesla's current (heh) standards, but enough to avoid range anxiety in most of the country.

I think the Taycan is a very reasonable alternative to either the MS or M3, depending on how you rank feature importance and what trim level Taycan you price out. At MS P100D pricing, that's a fully loaded top performance tier Cross Turismo, which will have excellent storage, far better fit and finish, a better dynamic experience, and (sadly) a much better service than recent Tesla standards. That's my impartial take, I loved my MS, 911's, Cayenne Hybrid, etc. I just buy the best one for my needs or wants at the time. If Tesla manages itself out of this weird rut it's in now, perhaps I'll replace the Taycan with a Tesla Roadster in 2023.

View attachment 416306

Model S replaced my Cayman S but I see zero reason to go back to Porsche for electric cars. It wasn't so clear to me if I loved my Porsche because it's a Porsche or because it's a better car. Both were true to most people in the past of course. But cooler head prevailed after my experiences with Tesla. Without the engine and transmission advantages the Porsche is a pretty ordinary car. Its name does not, as it should not, mean (that) much to me anymore. Tesla obviously has better battery and electric drivetrain technology than Porsche, or anyone else, not to mention in car, including autonomy, technologies it has. Paying a lot more than P3D+ or getting a much slower car than Ludicrous S for those pretty inconsequential things instead of a better car does not make sense to me. Even for those things remember Porsche was infamous, of famous for enthusiasts, for it's spartan and different interior. Other than being "different" those fit and finish things of Tesla are blown way out of proportion, at least for me who have owned two and various upscale German and Japanese cars.

 

[AirKuhl]

Without a meaningful Level 3 charging network the Taycan will remain a glorified city car for the nouveaux riches.

This is where all are behind Tesla, and all put the cart before the horse by doing grandiose projects with little infrastructure planning
hoping to attract the buyers by looks and technology.

Fortunately the internet is there, and at the income levels required, the educated decision buying will sway in favor of Tesla again.
I am not talking about the pre-institutionally bored and trust fund kids of course.

Wow, I know that being overtly judgmental is all the rage these days but dayum. You should read my post right above yours to understand why not much of what you wrote is true.

At one point Tesla was probably 10 years ahead of the EV competition. They still are a bit ahead, but if you follow the trend lines, hugely profitable and well funded automakers are catching up fast and will be surpassing soon. Tesla is a small, maneuverable cutter able to make decisions quickly, while the big automakers are battleships that take forever to turn, but are almost unstoppable once they do.

At this point I just hope Tesla will remain solvent. The M3 was the carrot dangled in front of investors for years and while a great car, demand for it has significantly stagnated vs. expectations.

 

[sixela]

demand for it has significantly stagnated vs. expectations.

That was last week's stock analysts' mantra. I.e. that's extremely passé these days, since they're starting to smell the probable Q2 numbers.

 

[Munka]

The ev market is still constrained by the rate in which the global market can produce cells. Every ev will continue to sell until demand is met.

 

[CarlK]

At one point Tesla was probably 10 years ahead of the EV competition. They still are a bit ahead, but if you follow the trend lines, hugely profitable and well funded automakers are catching up fast and will be surpassing soon.

They are catching up fast because they are making EV's that have not even reached 2012 Tesla's 265 mile range? And god knows when they could manufacture batteries on their own not to mention at Tesla's cost? That kind of statement belongs to Seeking Alpha but people here know enough to fall for that.

 

[darxsys]

It’s interesting how everything is black and white for so many people here. If you say something to criticize Tesla, you’re immediately labeled a “seeking alpha guy”.If you say something to praise Tesla, you’re a fanboy. Chill out everyone.

Other manufacturers are obviously catching up and definitely will catch up to Tesla (at least I really hope they will), because they have one thing Tesla craves so much: cash. Maybe not this year, maybe not next year, but does anyone here seriously think that Tesla is the only company with smart engineers and researchers? Do you really believe that VW CEO is some dumbass that will just sit on the sidelines while his business is getting ripped apart by Tesla? Come on. Maybe their first iterations suck, but I am willing to bet a lot of money that the next E-tron won’t suck. They are coming. And with the way Tesla is being led these days, I have no doubt they will catch up fast once they get the ball rolling.

As much as I support Tesla and want it to succeed, I also definitely want and support competition. Tesla’s monopolistic behavior is a danger to us consumers, like any other monopoly so everyone here should be rooting for good competition, too.

As far as Taycan is concerned, we’ll see what it actually ends up bringing to the table once released, before any serious judgment can be made. In my opinion it looks horrible, so that’s not a good sign .

 

[VQTRVA]

It’s interesting how everything is black and white for so many people here. If you say something to criticize Tesla, you’re immediately labeled a “seeking alpha guy”.If you say something to praise Tesla, you’re a fanboy. Chill out everyone.

Other manufacturers are obviously catching up and definitely will catch up to Tesla (at least I really hope they will), because they have one thing Tesla craves so much: cash. Maybe not this year, maybe not next year, but does anyone here seriously think that Tesla is the only company with smart engineers and researchers? Do you really believe that VW CEO is some dumbass that will just sit on the sidelines while his business is getting ripped apart by Tesla? Come on. Maybe their first iterations suck, but I am willing to bet a lot of money that the next E-tron won’t suck. They are coming. And with the way Tesla is being led these days, I have no doubt they will catch up fast once they get the ball rolling.

As much as I support Tesla and want it to succeed, I also definitely want and support competition. Tesla’s monopolistic behavior is a danger to us consumers, like any other monopoly so everyone here should be rooting for good competition, too.

As far as Taycan is concerned, we’ll see what it actually ends up bringing to the table once released, before any serious judgment can be made. In my opinion it looks horrible, so that’s not a good sign .

It's dark out.

 

[CarlK]

Other manufacturers are obviously catching up and definitely will catch up to Tesla (at least I really hope they will), because they have one thing Tesla craves so much: cash. Maybe not this year, maybe not next year, but does anyone here seriously think that Tesla is the only company with smart engineers and researchers? Do you really believe that VW CEO is some dumbass that will just sit on the sidelines while his business is getting ripped apart by Tesla? Come on. Maybe their first iterations suck, but I am willing to bet a lot of money that the next E-tron won’t suck. They are coming. And with the way Tesla is being led these days, I have no doubt they will catch up fast once they get the ball rolling.

As much as I support Tesla and want it to succeed, I also definitely want and support competition. Tesla’s monopolistic behavior is a danger to us consumers, like any other monopoly so everyone here should be rooting for good competition, too.

As far as Taycan is concerned, we’ll see what it actually ends up bringing to the table once released, before any serious judgment can be made. In my opinion it looks horrible, so that’s not a good sign .

The problem with this kind of narrative is it assumes Tesla will just sit still and watch how fast others could catch up. This is just a rumor at this point but others are shooting a moving target for sure.
Next-gen Tesla Model S/X rumored to have 3 electric motors, 400+ mile range

The answer to your other question is VW's CEO is indeed some kind of dumbass compares to Elon. When was the last time he even thought about the possibility of landing a rocket on drone boat? What new ideas of EV he has that Tesla has not done, or even has already done? Not to mention someone grow up in the culture that allowed such appalling crime as the dieselgate. As for smart engineers and researchers I'm sure there are many from Germany but why is that there is no German Google, Apple, Facebook or Amazon, yes and Tesla? Sit down and think real hard maybe even someone like you could figure it out.

Also pretty funny that you mention monopoly when Tesla is still one of the smallest automaker out there and the one that is suffering from organized basing from major oil companies, auto companies and dealer networks. You're rooting for wrong guys, You should root for Tesla until others are ready to put in REAL efforts to help achieving transition to sustainable transportation. The stronger Tesla is the more likely everyone will do that.

 

[Magellan55]

As far as demand for the Model 3, May US sales numbers just came out and Model 3 is still #1 luxury vehicle, including SUV's, and still outsold BMW 3/4/5/6 series combined. I think predictions of lack of demand is a bit premature, or wishful thinking of those wanting Tesla to fail. MS is down 50% Y-Y, but who didn't expect that once the 3 was readily available for half the price? Looks like Tesla is on track to sell ~42K cars in the US in Q2. Tough to extrapolate that to worldwide but usually it's about 50% so maybe they will hit 84K cars total for Q2. That should compare very favorably to the 63K they managed in Q1, and quiet some of this demand chatter.

As for the Taycan, I really thought hard about it before buying my S last summer. I wanted a smaller car (I think it's a 4 seater), and it looks fantastic to me. I have to believe the handling is first rate. 99% of my driving is local since we also have an ICE SUV for family trips, so SuC is inconsequential (I drove my S 16K miles before my first SuC visit). And the Porsche dealer is a lot closer to me than the Tesla Service Center. But for the equivalent price with some options I was looking at only a base model, which I've read had a 0-60 time of 5.5s and a range of < 200 miles. From my research, you need to move up to the "4S" model to get S75D-equivalent performance, and even the "turbo" model only does 0-60 in 3.5s, so not even P3D territory. Plus I really wasn't sure how long it would take before it would become available in my area - some EV's are only shipped to CA and a few high density places like NYC first.

I'm quite happy I took the plunge on my S, other than having paid too much now that it's $20k cheaper :-(. The Taycan is really cool, and I'm looking forward to seeing it on the road (um, I'm STILL waiting to see an i-Pace on the road...). But I'm over "wanting" one. Agree with some others in the thread that having EV's from the established premium brands will only make EV's more accepted, so it's great that they are finally coming out.

I personally think Tesla can sell enough vehicles worldwide to keep 3 factories busy, assuming they continue to innovate. That's even if we quickly transition to autonomous taxis. But most of them will likely be 3/Y, with the S/X relegated to niche status. That's OK by me, as it makes my S that much more exclusive.

 

[darxsys]

The problem with this kind of narrative is it assumes Tesla will just sit still and watch how fast others could catch up. This is just a rumor at this point but others are shooting a moving target for sure.
Next-gen Tesla Model S/X rumored to have 3 electric motors, 400+ mile range

The answer to your other question is VW's CEO is indeed some kind of dumbass compares to Elon. When was the last time he even thought about the possibility of landing a rocket on drone boat? What new ideas of EV he has that Tesla has not done, or even has already done? Not to mention someone grow up in the culture that allowed such appalling crime as the dieselgate. As for smart engineers and researchers I'm sure there are many from Germany but why is that there is no German Google, Apple, Facebook or Amazon, yes and Tesla? Sit down and think real hard maybe even someone like you could figure it out.

Also pretty funny that you mention monopoly when Tesla is still one of the smallest automaker out there and the one that is suffering from organized basing from major oil companies, auto companies and dealer networks. You're rooting for wrong guys, You should root for Tesla until others are ready to put in REAL efforts to help achieving transition to sustainable transportation. The stronger Tesla is the more likely everyone will do that.

Shrug, I salute your love for Elon, but the fact that he thinks of reusable rockets doesn't mean he's a good CEO for Tesla. Tesla is a clear monopoly in the EV space and will stay that way for a while. For me as a customer, that doesn't imply anything good. Just ask people who are waiting months and months for their parts. Or the guy who bought this 75D: 2016 75D - CPO with a major heart-wrenching issue

 

[realvvk]

Besides the tiny size, I see a few more (HUGE) drawbacks:

-- lack of engine braking (regen) on release of gas pedal
-- regen on brake pedal instead of pure brakes
-- lack of "no creep" mode
-- two speed automatic transmission

One of the biggest reasons I bought my Model S was that it is the ideal replacement for a manual transmission car. I cannot drive automatic cars -- they drive me insane. Having an auto transmission, lacking engine braking and not allowing me to release the brake pedal and roll back on an incline -- these are the things that make Taycan behave exactly like an automatic transmission ICE car and, therefore, completely remove me from the client list.

 

[SO16]

At this point I just hope Tesla will remain solvent.

I’ll be glad when this FUD finally dies.

 

[SO16]

Shrug, I salute your love for Elon, but the fact that he thinks of reusable rockets doesn't mean he's a good CEO for Tesla. Tesla is a clear monopoly in the EV space and will stay that way for a while. For me as a customer, that doesn't imply anything good. Just ask people who are waiting months and months for their parts. Or the guy who bought this 75D: 2016 75D - CPO with a major heart-wrenching issue

There will always be horror stories. They can be found for probably every manufacturer out there.

All I know is that service is now more convenient with the app and mobile service, charging network expanding like crazy and new features in my car. If Elon is so terrible as a CEO, then why the hell hasn't some other “wonderful” CEO done this sooner?

To think of where Tesla has gone in just barely a decade is absolutely astounding. To think there won’t be growing pains, is living in a dream world.

 

[CarlK]

Shrug, I salute your love for Elon, but the fact that he thinks of reusable rockets doesn't mean he's a good CEO for Tesla. Tesla is a clear monopoly in the EV space and will stay that way for a while. For me as a customer, that doesn't imply anything good. Just ask people who are waiting months and months for their parts. Or the guy who bought this 75D: 2016 75D - CPO with a major heart-wrenching issue

More and more you sound like a FUDster than an owner providing objective opinion. Just what that link you're trying to prove? Did you ever go to Porsche forum, or any car forums, and notice how many problems had been reported there too?

Besides the tiny size, I see a few more (HUGE) drawbacks:

-- lack of engine braking (regen) on release of gas pedal
-- regen on brake pedal instead of pure brakes
-- lack of "no creep" mode
-- two speed automatic transmission

One of the biggest reasons I bought my Model S was that it is the ideal replacement for a manual transmission car. I cannot drive automatic cars -- they drive me insane. Having an auto transmission, lacking engine braking and not allowing me to release the brake pedal and roll back on an incline -- these are the things that make Taycan behave exactly like an automatic transmission ICE car and, therefore, completely remove me from the client list.

That two speed transmission is what really puzzles me. It adds a lot of complications and liability but the Taycan does not even have the same acceleration and top speed as Model S performance has. You mean Porsche does not have the motor and power electronic technology as Tesla has in order to do it without having another gear?

No creep and one pedal drive are best things of driving an EV. I wonder what's the idea of not having it? Pretty weird if what you said is true.

Hehe same here about auto trans. All cars I've owned for 20 years are manual shift cars. My last ICE car was a 6 speed Cayman S (you can see I'm not biased against Porsche because I don't know the car). Never could stand the pedal delay when driving a automatic. That was even before I discovered the instantaneous pedal response of the EV.

 

[ucmndd]

That two speed transmission is what really puzzles me. It adds a lot of complications and liability but the Taycan does not even have the same acceleration and top speed as Model S performance has.

I wonder if this is key to enabling the “extended full-power track operation” they’re after.

 

[P100D_Me]

That two speed transmission is what really puzzles me. It adds a lot of complications and liability but the Taycan does not even have the same acceleration and top speed as Model S performance has.

They might also be testing the design on a non performance vehicle, if the Model S had a two speed gearbox then we wouldn't see the supercars catch them at the end of the 1/4 mile.

 

[MXWing]

1.) Let’s see an actual Taycan that’s in consumer hands. I am interested in the price.

2.) Let’s see if Tesla does nothing with Model S innovation.

3.) Let’s see if the Taycan drivers can throw double middle fingers at S owners? The reverse is easy.

Bonus let’s see:

4.) Will the Taycan actually pass emissions testing?

The VAG team track record is pretty bad on this.

Would not surprise me at all if they rig the car for ultra low emissions just because cheating is as natural as breathing to them.