Tesla Announces Q4 Units: ~1,400-1,700 Model 3s produced in December

[smak]

People were expecting more than 2,500 produced in the quarter?

 

[run-the-joules]

People were expecting more than 2,500 produced in the quarter?

I sure as hell wasn't expecting them to cut their end of Q1 production rate target in half. The produced-to-date numbers are very much in line with what I expected, but the brutal kick to the balls of further delays to my delivery estimate becoming a certainty instead of just "probably going to be late but maybe not" is hurty.

 

[chojn1]

Anyone know where this puts Tesla relative to the 200,000 unit trigger for phasing out the tax credit?

I am keeping tab on the running total of Tesla US sales here:

Model 3 invites spreadsheet

Seems to me that these delivery numbers and the projected production rates are perfect, if the plan is to push the 200k limit to Q2 2018.

 

[Hans L]

Assuming a somewhat smooth ramp-up rate from 1000 M3's week now to 2500 by end of March, this would imply somewhere between 20,000 to 22,000 M3's in Q1. Not bad, but I gotta think this will push-out deliver to 30,000 - 40,000 reservation holders beyond the current Jan - Mar time frame. The last revised plans called for 5,000/week by Jan 1 or 60,000 M3's for the quarter. This of course assume most of these reservation holders want the 310 mile range battery....if not, this may not impact those waiting for 220 mile batteries or dual motors.

 

[run-the-joules]

Assuming a somewhat smooth ramp-up rate from 1000 M3's week now to 2500 by end of March, this would imply somewhere between 20,000 to 22,000 M3's in Q1. Not bad, but I gotta think this will push-out deliver to 30,000 - 40,000 reservation holders beyond the current Jan - Mar time frame. The last revised plans called for 5,000/week by Jan 1 or 60,000 M3's for the quarter. This of course assume most of these reservation holders want the 310 mile range battery....if not, this may not impact those waiting for 220 mile batteries or dual motors.

The *ONLY* good news (for me personally) that I can possibly take from this is that it might mean that they'll keep prioritizing California reservations. Every other factor of this is bad news for me.

 

[AlanSqB]

I have no faith left. Why would I?

I’m starting to head your way. I just realized that this news is probably going to push more employees/owners to first config

 

[RockNRy]

Anyone else refreshing delivery estimator over and over and over again?

I missed the pre-order boat and ordered mid last year and currently have an Apr-Jun 18 delivery, my lease is up in may. So a further delay of a month or two is going to make it very difficult for me.

:: Crosses Fingers::

 

[flyhigh123]

I’m starting to head your way. I just realized that this news is probably going to push more employees/owners to first config

yup, i think im gonna config tonight... was waiting for the 210 version, but maybe not worth the wait.

 

[run-the-joules]

I just realized that this news is probably going to push more employees/owners to first config

Mmhmm

 

[T34ME]

I thought it was fairly positive news aside from them pushing the goal of 5000 per week to Q2. They need to hit that number sooner rather than later.

Would you rather Elon over promise and under deliver or under promise and over deliver? I'm happy he's playing it rather conservative right now.

 

[T34ME]

I have no faith left. Why would I?

I would cancel if I were you!

 

[run-the-joules]

Would you rather Elon over promise and under deliver or under promise and over deliver? I'm happy he's playing it rather conservative right now.

Elon's experience with underpromising or overdelivering are similar to Stevie Wonder's experiences with catching a fastball from a major league pitcher: Understanding the concept doesn't mean you're capable of doing it.

 

[T34ME]

What car to buy now!! Tesla can’t pull off mass producing Jan-mar 2018 will turn into 2019...2020....2031...2055
Wait let’s distract by announcing another model or something else we can’t get done...... it’s a sad day ....

I would cancel if I were you!

 

[T34ME]

but my enthusiasm for this car continues to wane... if Acura's upcoming 2019 RDX redesign delivers on looks, a 4-cylinder, and becomes available for us to purchase before the 3, I'm gone.

I would cancel if I were you!

 

[run-the-joules]

Anyone else refreshing delivery estimator over and over and over again?

I missed the pre-order boat and ordered mid last year and currently have an Apr-Jun 18 delivery, my lease is up in may. So a further delay of a month or two is going to make it very difficult for me.

:: Crosses Fingers::

It would be wise to contact your lease provider sooner rather than later and find out what your options are for extending the lease.

 

[RockNRy]

It would be wise to contact your lease provider sooner rather than later and find out what your options are for extending the lease.

Thanks for the advice. I contacted them about a month ago to ask about extending (Lexus). They said yes but it doesn't add miles which means I'll be paying $0.25/Mile as well as I will definitely be going over sometime in April. We'll see how it goes, and I'll figure it out. Can't wait for the 3.

 

[run-the-joules]

Can't wait for the 3.

…you will.

 

[gavine]

@T34ME You're killing me

 

[gavine]

Thanks for the advice. I contacted them about a month ago to ask about extending (Lexus). They said yes but it doesn't add miles which means I'll be paying $0.25/Mile as well as I will definitely be going over sometime in April. We'll see how it goes, and I'll figure it out. Can't wait for the 3.

That might be negotiable. What if you wanted to add another year onto the lease? Are you telling me that they wouldn't add a year's worth of miles for you? They should do the same for a couple of months then. I have never extended a lease before, but this surprises me. Maybe it's standard practice? I don't know.

 

[Canuck]

These are great numbers from my perspective. I had concerns that Tesla would encounter serious production problems and not be able to ramp up production, especially after reports in Oct that certain parts were being made by hand. It makes me laugh when people expect Tesla to meet production dates and targets. They're called "targets" for a reason -- hitting the bulls-eye is great but sure seemed unlikely to me, especially given Tesla's track record.

Sigh…why am I always right when I'm cynical and always wrong when I'm optimistic…Here comes the "Dec-Feb (original)" -> "Jan-Mar (now)" -> "Jun-Aug" delivery estimate update. Perhaps it's time to go buy an A4.

Someone believed those dates? Tesla still says my Model 3 will be "late 2018" on my order page (current owner on west coast of Canada), but I read it as "mid 2019 at the earliest". This is Tesla folks, a new car company flying by the seat of its pants - and Elon's overly optimistic "man will live on mars soon" pants to boot. People who need certainty should certainly buy an Audi, which has been around since the 1930's, and doesn't BS us (well except that VW owns Audi and VW intentionally lied to regulators, and created firmware the intention of which was to trick them -- to poison us for more for profits and greed).

Nice. If all goes well and the company looks like it is remaining solid we will probably order a model 3 in January 2019 with hopes of seeing it first part of 2020.

Seriously? You think Tesla could fold so you're waiting to buy? It's long past that, at least in my view. If you look at how Sirius flirted with bankruptcy after having so much (but much less than Tesla) invested, there's no doubt Tesla would be bought out long before it gets as close to bankruptcy as Sirius did. I was concerned about Tesla folding over 4 years ago when I ordered but I still did and I am sure glad I didn't wait and watch. Then again, I bought a lifetime sub and SIRI stock when it was near bankruptcy. Some things are just too good to fail, at least in my view.