Tesla Announces Q4 Units: ~1,400-1,700 Model 3s produced in December

[kwest2]

Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

1,550 Model 3 sold in Q4. 712 had been sold through November, but 222 were in Q3. Plus 850 "in Transit". Now we know that some of the December sold units were produced in November or earlier, so probably about 1,400-1,700 units produced in December.

Tesla indicates final days of December saw a production rate that extrapolates to >1,000 per week. Also indicates that production rate will slowly ramp in 1Q18 to end up about 2,500 units per week by 3/31.

Oops title should have reflected the 1,400 to 1,700 estimate not 1,698, but can't edit.

 

[Shygar]

I thought it was fairly positive news aside from them pushing the goal of 5000 per week to Q2. They need to hit that number sooner rather than later.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

1,550 Model 3 sold in Q4. 712 had been sold through November, but 222 were in Q3. Plus 850 "in Transit". Now we know that some of the December sold units were produced in November or earlier, so probably about 1,400-1,700 units produced in December.

Tesla indicates final days of December saw a production rate that extrapolates to >1,000 per week. Also indicates that production rate will slowly ramp in 1Q18 to end up about 2,500 units per week by 3/31.

Oops title should have reflected the 1,400 to 1,700 estimate not 1,698, but can't edit.

Nice. If all goes well and the company looks like it is remaining solid we will probably order a model 3 in January 2019 with hopes of seeing it first part of 2020.

 

[run-the-joules]

Sigh…

why am I always right when I'm cynical and always wrong when I'm optimistic…

Here comes the "Dec-Feb (original)" -> "Jan-Mar (now)" -> "Jun-Aug" delivery estimate update. Perhaps it's time to go buy an A4.

 

[AlanSqB]

Sigh…

why am I always right when I'm cynical and always wrong when I'm optimistic…

Here comes the "Dec-Feb (original)" -> "Jan-Mar (now)" -> "July-Aug" delivery estimate update. Perhaps it's time to go buy an A4.

Keep the faith. Our invites are coming. Any second now.

 

[mngrant]

Keep the faith. Our invites are coming. Any second now.

Yes. I check my email a few times a day for the term "tesla". Any second now....

 

[run-the-joules]

Keep the faith. Our invites are coming. Any second now.

I have no faith left. Why would I?

 

[scaesare]

I was close!

 

[IdaX]

Anyone know where this puts Tesla relative to the 200,000 unit trigger for phasing out the tax credit?

 

[Jopo43]

What car to buy now!! Tesla can’t pull off mass producing Jan-mar 2018 will turn into 2019...2020....2031...2055
Wait let’s distract by announcing another model or something else we can’t get done...... it’s a sad day ....

 

[206er]

Ugh, I have no faith left in Elon's ability to deliver on deadlines. Hopefully he gets a human to Mars by 2100.

Keeping the early morning day 1 reservation for now, but my enthusiasm for this car continues to wane... if Acura's upcoming 2019 RDX redesign delivers on looks, a 4-cylinder, and becomes available for us to purchase before the 3, I'm gone.

 

[kengchang]

Anyone know where this puts Tesla relative to the 200,000 unit trigger for phasing out the tax credit?

It's gonna be Q2, so $7500 good until Sep

 

[ElecFan]

December 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
Model 3 is at nr 7 in december production. Model S and X are at nr 1 and 2.
Total EV production rised from nearly 160,000 in 2016 to nearly 200,000 in 2017.

 

[IdaX]

It's gonna be Q2, so $7500 good until Sep

Awesome great news!

 

[run-the-joules]

It's gonna be Q2, so $7500 good until Sep

unfortunately that won't help more than a few people who aren't existing owners. Hope they enjoy it.

 

[Trips]

With the new ramp timelines I am guessing maybe 20,000 in Q1 and 40,000 in Q2.

 

[kbM3]

Sigh…

why am I always right when I'm cynical and always wrong when I'm optimistic…

Here comes the "Dec-Feb (original)" -> "Jan-Mar (now)" -> "Jun-Aug" delivery estimate update. Perhaps it's time to go buy an A4.

Good luck with the A4. So I can assume we won’t see you around here anymore?

 

[larmor]

I have a model 3 ready to configure with delivery in 4 weeks, but didn't even get an email. Found out by logging into the tesla website...

 

[Zaxxon]

It's gonna be Q2, so $7500 good until Sep

I agree. If we take the post-Q3 info (140k sold in US by Tesla through 9/30, source Electrek) and add in 15k S/X for Q4 US (a bit over 50% of 30k sold per today's announcement), that's 155k. I guesstimated the ramp through Q4 2018 here based on today's guidance, and that gives a total of 25k Model 3 through Q1 of 2018. Add another 15k S/X for Q1 and we're now at 155k + 25k + 15k = 195k. It's possible they exceed that, but I don't think they will hit 200k in Q1.

At this point I'd bank on them hitting 200k in early Q2, meaning the credit will remain $7500 until 9/30/2018.

 

[run-the-joules]

Good luck with the A4. So I can assume we won’t see you around here anymore?

You're not getting off that easily.