Tesla autopilot HW3

[iTech]

Your post above seems to prioritize selling new cars instead of upgrading existing ones. I guess, I am confused. There should be no shortage of chips -- these were fabbed just for Tesla. Clearly they'll want 500k+ of them just for this year's production (right, Elon?). They'll have spare chips if they want them to go to customers, it should happen.

The fact Tesla is saying nothing and has not been giving updates to Model S/X owners actually indicates to me they might be deploying features that go beyond HW2 already and see a need to upgrade HW2 owners before they can implement them whereas HW2.5 might be able to make it further in the development cycle.

I'm speculating what Tesla will end up doing based on their operational history re: New customers before current customers until they get their *beep* straightened out

However, 2 and 2.5 have the same compute limitations so priority, if Tesla wanted to be closest to being "in the right", would be to retrofit based on the purchase date of FSD.

 

[animorph]

It makes no sense to continue to make cars that they will have to retrofit with HW3 in the future if they have HW3 ready to go now. So HW3 will definitely go to the new-build cars first. The good thing about that is that it should mean the firmware for it is also production ready.

 

[lunitiks]

Parts catalogue updated:

ASSY,AUTOPILOT.ECU,3.0, MSX-FUSED
1655000-70-F

 

[electronblue]

It was the same for the 3. Deposit is refundable until you get matched with a VIN. Then it is non-refundable thus the wording that it is not part of car price, although you do get an offsetting credit on the final price.
While not escrowed, deposits are tracked in the liabilities section and do not impact profit.

I don’t believe it is the same. Tesla specifically says Model Y payment is not a deposit. For Model 3 you made a reservation payment. For Model Y you order the car and make a (refundable) payment to cover ”ordering costs” or somesuch.

The wording was changed, I speculate, for accounting reasons? Avoiding deferred revenue and all that...

 

[electronblue]

It makes no sense to continue to make cars that they will have to retrofit with HW3 in the future if they have HW3 ready to go now. So HW3 will definitely go to the new-build cars first. The good thing about that is that it should mean the firmware for it is also production ready.

That much is understandable of course but starting retrofits from the oldest cars without delay would be a reasonable thing to do as well.

But certainly there is a legitimate concern that Tesla is simply doing all it can to cut costs and bring forwards future revenue by all means possible, which would suggest old obligations (retrofits) are costs to be delayed, while new revenue is something that needs to be brought in as fast as possible... hence all the demand levers and stuff...

 

[rnortman]

New builds are the priority, it wouldn't make sense to retrofit current customers until a long time later.

Nothing about promising products and features that don't exist and may never exist ever made any sense. Making sense is not Tesla's strength.

It is reasonable, I think, for the people who gave Tesla an interest-free unsecured loan to get the hardware as soon as it is available.

 

[mongo]

I don’t believe it is the same. Tesla specifically says Model Y payment is not a deposit. For Model 3 you made a reservation payment. For Model Y you order the car and make a (refundable) payment to cover ”ordering costs” or somesuch.

The wording was changed, I speculate, for accounting reasons? Avoiding deferred revenue and all that...

Huh, the wording is slightly different than I remember (maybe it changed recently? ), both are now refundable till delivery. I'm fairly positive it used to lock in at VIN for both. This may be due to the recent 7 day, no charge return policy.

I suppose they could use that wording to avoid adding it to the deposits line, but that seems shaky accounting wise since it is fully refundable.

3:

Order Process; Changes. After you submit your completed order and the options you selected become available in production, we will begin the process of matching your order to a vehicle and coordinating your Vehicle delivery. Your Order Payment covers the cost of these activities and other processing costs and is not a deposit for the Vehicle. Until your Vehicle is delivered to you, you may cancel your order at any time, in which case you will receive a full refund of your Order Payment. Until your order is matched to a vehicle, you may make changes to your Vehicle Configuration. If you make changes to your Vehicle Configuration, you may be subject to potential price increases for any pricing adjustments made since your original Order Date. Any changes made by you to your Vehicle Configuration, including changes to the delivery location or estimated delivery date, will be reflected in a subsequent Vehicle Configuration that will form part of this Agreement. When you take delivery of the vehicle we will provide a credit to the final purchase price of your Vehicle equivalent to the amount of the Order Payment you paid. This Order Payment and this Agreement are not made or entered into in anticipation of or pending any conditional sale contract.

Y:

Pre-Order Process; Cancellation; Changes. After you submit your completed pre-order and the options you selected become available in production, which we expect to begin in the fourth quarter of 2020, we wil begin the process of matching your pre-order to a vehicle and coordinating your Vehicle delivery. Your Pre-Order Payment covers the cost of these activities and other processing costs and is not a deposit for the Vehicle. Until your Vehicle is delivered to you, you may cancel your pre-order at any time, in which case you will receive a full refund of your Pre-Order Payment. Until your pre-order is matched to a vehicle, you may make changes to your Vehicle Configuration. If you make changes to your Vehicle Configuration, you may be subject to potential price increases for any pricing adjustments made since your original Pre-Order Date. Any changes made by you to your Vehicle Configuration, including changes to the delivery location or estimated delivery date, wil be reflected in a subsequent Vehicle Configuration that wil form part of this Agreement. When you take delivery of the Vehicle, we wil provide a credit to the final pre-order price of your Vehicle equivalent to the amount of the Pre-Order Payment you paid. This Pre-Order Payment and this Agreement are not made or entered into in anticipation of or pending any conditional sale contract.

The Y is called out as not a deposit so that they can claim it once a VIN is assigned to you. If it were a pure deposit, it would be refundable until delivery.

 

[mongo]

Nothing about promising products and features that don't exist and may never exist ever made any sense. Making sense is not Tesla's strength.

Nothing about a car gaining $8k in value after delivery with no physical change makes sense either... Software is weird... (imagine GAP insurance...)

It is reasonable, I think, for the people who gave Tesla an interest-free unsecured loan to get the hardware as soon as it is available.

Agree with original adopters being first in line, but it's not even a loan, more like a non-refundable fullish price preorder.

 

[rnortman]

It makes no sense to continue to make cars that they will have to retrofit with HW3 in the future if they have HW3 ready to go now. So HW3 will definitely go to the new-build cars first. The good thing about that is that it should mean the firmware for it is also production ready.

This is completely true, and this is why nobody should have expected Tesla to behave any differently. It will be a year before there are large-scale retrofits of AP2/2.5 cars I predict.

The fact that this makes business sense does not make it right. I often see people excusing Tesla's lies and broken promises by saying "buy they have no choice, it would be too expensive to keep their promises! It would bankrupt the company!" Musk himself made this argument recently, saying that Tesla can't "make [early adopters] whole" because it would bankrupt the company.

This is all true. This doesn't make it right. Tesla is frankly an unethical company with a largely incompetent but "well-intentioned" narcissist in charge.

 

[mongo]

It makes no sense to continue to make cars that they will have to retrofit with HW3 in the future if they have HW3 ready to go now. So HW3 will definitely go to the new-build cars first. The good thing about that is that it should mean the firmware for it is also production ready.

This is completely true, and this is why nobody should have expected Tesla to behave any differently. It will be a year before there are large-scale retrofits of AP2/2.5 cars I predict.

Installing HW3 on the assembly line is orthogonal to retrofitting AP2.x cars. Assuming sufficient supply chain, there is no reason for it to be an either/ or decision.

There is a reason, however, to delay the retrofits until confidence is gained from the new cars in the field. Price of HW3 should be on par or cheaper than HW2.5, so no reason not to switch (assuming it has at least as much capability) , but retrofit is more cost intensive, so would only want to be done once (once they are sure it is sufficient).
Early access may shift people into the dual swap if needed category.

@rnortman fully disagree with your assault on Elon's personality/ motives. Check his Twitter for recent Flint news if you think it's about him...

 

[Mo City]

IMO, they should retrofit Model S/X owners first, then Model 3 owners.

Preferably in date order (but we all know how likely that is).

 

[electronblue]

Huh, the wording is slightly different than I remember (maybe it changed recently? ), both are now refundable till delivery. I'm fairly positive it used to lock in at VIN for both. This may be due to the recent 7 day, no charge return policy.

I suppose they could use that wording to avoid adding it to the deposits line, but that seems shaky accounting wise since it is fully refundable.

3:
Y:
The Y is called out as not a deposit so that they can claim it once a VIN is assigned to you. If it were a pure deposit, it would be refundable until delivery.

No, I meant Model Y orders compared to Model 3 reservations. Previously Tesla did reservations for future models, now they did an order option...

I guess it could be simply a cash raise too...

 

[timewasted]

Let’s take Elon at his word for a moment and say that their entire AP2.0 and higher fleet can have AP3 swapped in easily. In this case, AP3 retrofits should be a SUPER easy thing to manage both for existing customers and new cars rolling off the line:

- They know where their entire fleet is, thanks to the connection with the mothership.
- They know where very nearly their entire fleet lives and works.
- They can cluster that information to the nearest service center.
- They can undoubtedly see the service schedule for every service center and mobile tech based near that service center.
- They (should) know roughly how long a retrofit would take.

So, take all this information and use it to figure out how many units should go to each service center each week, and then allocate the rest to new vehicle production. Easy, and new and old customers alike stay happy (or at least content)!

Of course what will ACTUALLY happen is that Tesla will set aside a dozen or so to retrofit their prolific YouTubers to try to sate the masses while advertising their “priority retrofit service” which starts at $35,000.

Side note: any chance you’ve had time to work on that complaint letter for your AG, @croman?

 

[mongo]

So, take all this information and use it to figure out how many units should go to each service center each week, and then allocate the rest to new vehicle production. Easy, and new and old customers alike stay happy (or at least content)!

Was with you till here, no way they will produce both HW2.x and HW3 cars at the same time (for the same market). Need to supply Fremont with one per car, and order enough from the suppler to cover that and retrofits. Given the timing, I expect they have inventory built up to feed both supply chains (assuming they start the retrofit campaign before getting a lot of new cars with HW3 out there).

 

[timewasted]

Was with you till here, no way they will produce both HW2.x and HW3 cars at the same time (for the same market). Need to supply Fremont with one per car, and order enough from the suppler to cover that and retrofits. Given the timing, I expect they have inventory built up to feed both supply chains (assuming they start the retrofit campaign before getting a lot of new cars with HW3 out there).

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but what you said is basically what I was trying to say. Compared to all the other issues with making a car, this one seems absolutely trivial to manage.

This is a prime opportunity for Tesla to make cynical assholes like myself at least a tiny bit less cynical about this whole situation.

 

[Fiver]

<Start thread complaining you don't yet have the just-released HW3./>

Get HW3 retrofit.

<Start thread complaining HW3 adds nothing since software hasn't caught up yet./>


I guess for people with just AP2 I can kinda get it as you guys/gals don't have the dash cam, but anyone with AP2.5 should really not care until there's some software updates.

 

[run-the-joules]

<Start thread complaining you don't yet have the just-released HW3./>

Get HW3 retrofit.

<Start thread complaining HW3 adds nothing since software hasn't caught up yet./>


I guess for people with just AP2 I can kinda get it as you guys/gals don't have the dash cam, but anyone with AP2.5 should really not care until there's some software updates.

For me I want the hardware ASAP so I’m not stuck in the hell of not being able to use the newest features because I don’t have the hardware yet. I’d rather get the upgrade tomorrow and not get new features until September than see new features requiring HW3 start coming out but not get the upgrade until September while others have been using it for months. Given Tesla’s not-exactly-awe-inspiring service world, I fully expect all the HW upgrades to be a crap show and take them months if not gets to actually get them done for everyone.

 

[emmz0r]

Get HW3 retrofit.

<Start thread complaining HW3 adds nothing since software hasn't caught up yet./>

It's said that a more comprehensive model is running on the HW3 already and should be more robust and better.

 

[Fiver]

For me I want the hardware ASAP so I’m not stuck in the hell of not being able to use the newest features because I don’t have the hardware yet. I’d rather get the upgrade tomorrow and not get new features until September than see new features requiring HW3 start coming out but not get the upgrade until September while others have been using it for months. Given Tesla’s not-exactly-awe-inspiring service world, I fully expect all the HW upgrades to be a crap show and take them months if not gets to actually get them done for everyone.

So what's worse? Having the HW but not getting software updates or not having the hardware but running the most current software?

Doesn't matter if you have HW2.5 or HW3, until they start making hardware specific software updates there won't be any improvement. I'm on 2.5 and still running 2018.50.7 from 2 months ago. I'd complain but there's zero no new features I need in the latest version of the software anyway.

It's said that a more comprehensive model is running on the HW3 already and should be more robust and better.

"Said", and reality, are two different things.

Not saying it won't improve, but I don't expect anything HW3 specific until at least 2019.

 

[emmz0r]

"Said", and reality, are two different things.

“The team is incredibly excited about the upcoming upgrade for the Autopilot computer. This upgrade allows us to not just run the current neural networks faster, but more importantly, it would allow us to deploy much larger computational and more expansive networks to the fleet. The reason this is important is that it is a common finding in the industry that as you make the networks bigger, the accuracy of their prediction increases with the added capacity. Now we’re currently at a place where we’ve trained large networks that work very well, but are not able to deploy them to the fleet due to computational constraints. So all of these will change with the next iteration of the hardware, and it’s a massive step improvement in computing capability, and the team is incredibly excited to get these networks out there.”

From Karpathy himself, so there's that.

Not saying it won't improve, but I don't expect anything HW3 specific until at least 2019.

It will run at a higher rate already, and ahem, it's already 2019