Tesla Battery Investor Day

[MC3OZ]

Following up on my post above,,,

I think Panasonic could make 2170 cells via a traditional wet-electrode process at GF1 with the following properties:-

• Cobalt Free - Dahn
• Single Crystal - Dahn
• Million Mile Electrolyte - Dahn

Technically these would be Million mile batteries, that could be used in Model 3/Y....

The Maxwell Dry Electrode process is a natural boundary where it no longer makes sense to share the IP with Panasonic.

But sharing the IP above, allows Panasonic to make better batteries for Tesla while still keeping some key IP in house.

In particular, I imagine Panasonic would be very happy to license the Single Crystal IP on favourable terms, the Chinese already have this, so it is not unique.

I can see the possibility of a very smooth transition which keeps everybody happy.

 

[ZOE5IVE]

Am I the only one who thinks that they already have a chunk of vehicles on the road with the million mile battery? They could just say on battery day All models produced this year have the million mile battery or every model gets a 25 mile boost.... I haven't seen anyone do a teardown of the battery pack.

 

[willow_hiller]

Am I the only one who thinks that they already have a chunk of vehicles on the road with the million mile battery? They could just say on battery day All models produced this year have the million mile battery or every model gets a 25 mile boost.... I haven't seen anyone do a teardown of the battery pack.

Maybe in the Model Ys that have shipped. Even if someone does a full teardown (ala Sandy Munro), it's not like Tesla is required to list the battery chemistry on the label. Best they'd get is a different part number on the pack.

 

[MC3OZ]

Am I the only one who thinks that they already have a chunk of vehicles on the road with the million mile battery? They could just say on battery day All models produced this year have the million mile battery or every model gets a 25 mile boost.... I haven't seen anyone do a teardown of the battery pack.

I think they likely have some vehicles with Million Mile batteries,,, perhaps all cells made in 2019 have the changed electrolyte formula (fewer additives), that seems like a simple change...

I also think the Maxwell battery tech is very likely to be n the Plaid Model S, they plan on making Plaid Model S sometime this year and a prototype line of Maxwell style packs probably exists at Fremont or nearby.

The 25 mile boost could come from multiple sources, they are making improvements to the batteries and motors.. all the time.. but perhaps it could be from the new electrolyte formula.. less degradation may mean they can unlock part of the battery that was previously locked as a safety buffer... that makes sense.

 

[JRP3]

If there were cars already being sold with any battery breakthrough we'd be seeing significant different specs in either range, charge speed, or vehicle weight, or a combination of all three. We aren't seeing that.

 

[mblakele]

If there were cars already being sold with any battery breakthrough we'd be seeing significant different specs in either range, charge speed, or vehicle weight, or a combination of all three. We aren't seeing that.

Just playing devil's advocate, but couldn't the range and charging specs be software-limited until an announcement? That would short-circuit the usual complaints from folks who just missed the new features, wouldn't it?

Vehicle weight is another matter. I don't know what, if any, wriggle room Tesla might have there.

 

[JRP3]

Sure they could be software limiting a large capacity and/or faster charge speed. If the pack is a new more energy dense chemistry then the weight could be the same with more capacity which they could be hiding with software. I doubt they could keep it secret though, some employee would have leaked it or some hacker would have uncovered it.

 

[ZOE5IVE]

If there were cars already being sold with any battery breakthrough we'd be seeing significant different specs in either range, charge speed, or vehicle weight, or a combination of all three. We aren't seeing that.

I was implying that its being software limited. But yes its not a different/dry battery because that would be a different battery pack/cooling. And vehicle weight. But none of Tesla's batteries have reached their limit.

 

[Buckminster]

Pretty sure that Tesla will be making all the significant changes at once. I expect the new batteries to be introduced first on:

1. Semi 2020
2. Megapack 2021
3. Roadster 2021
4. CT 2022
5. M2 2023

This would still be an incredible ramp up. Changing power wall, M3, MY, MX and MS will be major refreshes after 2023.

 

[JRP3]

I was implying that its being software limited.

That would be visible to the various programs which can show actual charge levels.

 

[MC3OZ]

Pretty sure that Tesla will be making all the significant changes at once. I expect the new batteries to be introduced first on:

1. Semi 2020
2. Megapack 2021
3. Roadster 2021
4. CT 2022
5. M2 2023

This would still be an incredible ramp up. Changing power wall, M3, MY, MX and MS will be major refreshes after 2023.

I think they need a ramp where Maxwell battery pack revenues fund the next wave of investments...

So my guess is:-
1. Plaid Model S/X - 2020
2. All Model S/X 2020/2021
3. Semi 2021 - already delayed.
4. Megapack 2020/2021/2022 - need high volumes of cells from somewhere.
5. Roadster 2022
6 Cybertruck 2022/2023
7. Model 3/Y 2023/2024/2025
8. Model 2 - 2024/2025

2025- all Panasonic 18650/2170 lines making 2170 for Powerwall and Powerpack.

My thoughts are similar I just have a slower ramp and eventuality all vehicles going to Maxwell style batteries, the reason for that is, higher energy density will allow lower vehicle weight.

 

[MC3OZ]

Good video, well worth watching:-

 

[MC3OZ]

We have 2 battery investor day threads would be great if these are merged, otherwise someone shoudl pick one to be the main thread from now on.

 

[mblakele]

We have 2 battery investor day threads would be great if these are merged, otherwise someone shoudl pick one to be the main thread from now on.

This one?

Battery Day

It's in the "Tesla Inc" sub, so I'm not sure if a mod will think it's worth the trouble to move and merge.

 

[JRP3]

For some reason another thread was started in the Investing forum Tesla Powertrain and Battery Investor Day

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This guy likes starting dupe threads for some reason.

 

[Buckminster]

This guy likes starting dupe threads for some reason.

I'm sure it was a honest mistake - no harm done. This pre-dated the addition of the power train so the other was technically better for a while.

 

[MC3OZ]

I suggest we just run with this thread from now on.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I suggest we just run with this thread from now on.

This is a duplicate thread, it should be merged or allowed to fall off. The need for self-moderation is higher these days.

 

[JRP3]

This was the original thread, the other is the duplicate.