Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[wdolson]

Paywall so didn’t read. But I think a lot of people look and Tesla and think ”wow so easy, just make electric cars and BOOM huge market cap!!!”. They fail to understand how hard it was for Tesla to do what they did and how good Tesla had to be in order to make it. Nikola is not Tesla. VW is not Tesla. Toyota is not Tesla. They cannot just decide to make EV and suddenly get 500B market cap, it’s not that easy. Tesla has attracted a team of elite engineers, organized them to work much more efficiently than other teams, made them work more hours than other teams, had a clear and brilliant long term strategy, had access to huge amount of capital and still they almost failed. And this was without having Tesla as competition... GLHF for newcomers! Maybe with support of the Chinese government it is possible, but for everyone else it would be a decade of all kinds of hell.

Tesla did a combination of getting things right and being very lucky. They had a fanatic fan base who were willing to put up with a lot of teething problems that would have sunk another car maker. Nobody following in Tesla's footsteps has the leeway Tesla got, except possibly Apple with their strong fan base.

Having a stock that went to the stratosphere helped too, but little of that benefits Tesla directly. It did when they issued more stock, but otherwise it's only helped other investors. But the high stock price did help keep them afloat through rough times.

Any serious stock analyst would look at their price per earning ratio and say it's higher than it should be. Tesla is among the highest P/E stocks in the world. For a company that is innovating and growing fast, a bit high P/E ratio is called for, but Tesla's is high even in that realm. Tesla's fans keep the stock jacked up. Great for people who invested early.

Ford production of Mustang Mach-E exceeds gas models

The automaker has passed a milestone in its conversion to electric vehicles.

www.autonews.com

“Mach-E has been much stronger than we expected, so we’ve totally run out of stock,” Farley told reporters at the introduction of the electric F-150 Lightning pickup May 19. “Mach-E is going global as we speak, but in the U.S.,” the wait for a Mach-E “is months.”

You make a compelling BEV and it is automatically backordered. Imagine that.

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They are probably getting into limits from their battery supply. The Mach E is an appealing car, it's one of the few non-Teslas with over 240 miles of range and it's a vehicle layout that is popular. Also Ford is not a luxury nameplate for those who don't want to be seen as a snob.

The trick now is to scale up production of batteries to match demand growth.

 

[RobStark]

They are probably getting into limits from their battery supply. The Mach E is an appealing car, it's one of the few non-Teslas with over 240 miles of range and it's a vehicle layout that is popular. Also Ford is not a luxury nameplate for those who don't want to be seen as a snob.

The trick now is to scale up production of batteries to match demand growth.

My guess is Ford is now SKI's most important customer and they might favor allocation toward Mach-e vs VW/Hyundai needs.

 

[wdolson]

My guess is Ford is now SKI's most important customer and they might favor allocation toward Mach-e vs VW/Hyundai needs.

That could be. The noise about the F-150 Lightning gives them further reason to stick with Ford.

 

[KJD]

Ford's Mustang Mach-E Trounced Tesla in Norway Last Month | The Motley Fool

It was the best-selling car of any kind in the EV-loving Nordic nation.

www.fool.com

 

[mark95476]

UGH... So much to unwind...

People buying performance vehicles put up with a lot for that performance. Otherwise, BMW, MB, VW/Audi/Lambo, Ferrari, Porsche, McLaren, ....etc.... wouldn't exist. Being an EV doesn't matter, but the gasser market is full and it'd be difficult to outdo the incumbents. Tesla provides vehicles that can smoke everything other than the most exotic of exotics. The value a Tesla buyer gets is incredible and can't be matched. I think the primary reason why Teslas are so popular (especially in California and Silicon Valley) is because people actual drive them and find out.

Factor in the nearly no maintenance a Tesla owner gets with that performance. I got tired of $1k+ service and repairs and went Japanese for my last vehicle. I also did a lot of wrenching myself. Even that got tiring so I bought a MY last year. Best vehicle purchase ever. 11 months and ~9k miles in and I've paid $50 for a tire rotation. I saved thousands in gas.

Remember how Tesla was going bankwupt any day now? High stock price means they can and have raised capital and paid down some of their debt. Tesla has something like 3x more cash equivalents than debt. Tesla could retire their debt entirely. Compare that with Ford who has >>100B in debt.

Tesla did a combination of getting things right and being very lucky. They had a fanatic fan base who were willing to put up with a lot of teething problems that would have sunk another car maker. Nobody following in Tesla's footsteps has the leeway Tesla got, except possibly Apple with their strong fan base.

Having a stock that went to the stratosphere helped too, but little of that benefits Tesla directly. It did when they issued more stock, but otherwise it's only helped other investors. But the high stock price did help keep them afloat through rough times.

Any serious stock analyst would look at their price per earning ratio and say it's higher than it should be. Tesla is among the highest P/E stocks in the world. For a company that is innovating and growing fast, a bit high P/E ratio is called for, but Tesla's is high even in that realm. Tesla's fans keep the stock jacked up. Great for people who invested early.


They are probably getting into limits from their battery supply. The Mach E is an appealing car, it's one of the few non-Teslas with over 240 miles of range and it's a vehicle layout that is popular. Also Ford is not a luxury nameplate for those who don't want to be seen as a snob.

The trick now is to scale up production of batteries to match demand growth.

 

[RobStark]

Compare that with Ford who has >>100B in debt.

As has been explained many times in this Forum almost all of Ford's debt is with Ford's finance arm and is non-recourse debt on the cars themselves.

If a car buyers defaults Ford doesn't have to pay the lender. The car is repossessed and sold at auction. That auction price is what the lender gets.

Ford is acting as a middle man between investor and car buyer.

 

[RobStark]

Nissan Ariya EV: US arrival will be delayed to early 2022

The Ariya will offer up to 300 miles of range in some versions, with a choice between front-wheel drive or all-wheel drive.

www.greencarreports.com

 

[mark95476]

Tesla has something like ~4B in debt. Is that more or less than the relevant portion of "almost all of Ford's debt"?

Tesla has reports ~25% margins on their vehicles. I don't think Ford gets that much on their vehicles.

As has been explained many times in this Forum almost all of Ford's debt is with Ford's finance arm and is non-recourse debt on the cars themselves.

If a car buyers defaults Ford doesn't have to pay the lender. The car is repossessed and sold at auction. That auction price is what the lender gets.

Ford is acting as a middle man between investor and car buyer.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla has something like ~4B in debt. Is that more or less than the relevant portion of "almost all of Ford's debt"?

Tesla has reports ~25% margins on their vehicles. I don't think Ford gets that much on their vehicles.

The last time I looked into it ~3 years ago Ford's recourse debt was about $35B with ~$25B cash/cash equivalents on hand.

The way Tesla figures gross margins and everybody else figures it is different.

Ford makes money on Explorer, Ranger, and Transit.

Ford makes money hand over fist on F Series, Expedition, Navigator, and Aviator.

It has negative margins on everything else.

I don't own any F stock. About 80% of my wealth is in TSLA.

I would like to buy some Rivian stock, but not at a $70B valuation.

I would like to buy some Lucid stock but not at a ~$35B valuation.

Edit. I have not seen an analyst do a deep dive into Mach-E margins. Jim Farley claimed Mach-E would be margin positive on day one.

 

[alloverx]

With no Plaid+, The Lucid might the new range king.

 

[heltok]

With no Plaid+, The Lucid might the new range king.

Unless Roadster2 comes before Air.

 

[mark95476]

I've got my fingers crossed for the tri-motor CT.

With no Plaid+, The Lucid might the new range king.

Unless Roadster2 comes before Air.

 

[RobStark]

EXCLUSIVE Apple, Chinese manufacturers in talks on U.S. car battery factory -sources

Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is in early-stage talks with China's CATL (300750.SZ) and BYD (002594.SZ), about the supply of batteries for its planned electric vehicle, four people with knowledge of the matter said.

www.reuters.com

 

[RubberToe]

The CNCDA data is out for the first quarter. Tesla has 5.3% market share in California. EV sales are at 8.1% YTD versus 6.2% in 2020. The Model Y is the 3rd best selling car in the state:

Toyota RAV4: 17226
Toyota Camry: 15526
Model Y: 13786

Starting in Q2-21 the Model Y will be the best seller for the foreseeable future.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-21.pdf

 

[winfield100]

The CNCDA data is out for the first quarter. Tesla has 5.3% market share in California. EV sales are at 8.1% YTD versus 6.2% in 2020. The Model Y is the 3rd best selling car in the state:

Toyota RAV4: 17226
Toyota Camry: 15526
Model Y: 13786

Starting in Q2-21 the Model Y will be the best seller for the foreseeable future.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-21.pdf

so Model Y alone took 29.6% of the sales of the top 3 and 13,786 sales from ICE

 

[Doggydogworld]

The CNCDA data is out for the first quarter. Tesla has 5.3% market share in California. EV sales are at 8.1% YTD versus 6.2% in 2020. The Model Y is the 3rd best selling car in the state:

Toyota RAV4: 17226
Toyota Camry: 15526
Model Y: 13786

Starting in Q2-21 the Model Y will be the best seller for the foreseeable future.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-21.pdf

Thanks! I was starting to wonder if they'd ever release this. Tesla registrations lag a lot, so these numbers include many December sales and not so many March sales. That's how you get crazy stuff like 889 Model S in California when Q1 S+X deliveries for the whole world were only 2030. I bet 500+ of those 889 were December deliveries.

Model 3 was down 48% y/y. I've been saying Model Y should take about half of Model 3 sales plus add a similar amount of growth sales. So total 3+Y will be 1.5x Model 3 alone. Just a gut feel, of course. These CNCDA numbers indicate Y took 9.1k sales from 3 and added 4.7k new sales, and that total 3+Y 1.25x of 3 alone. I think it'll get closer to my 1.5x guess as Y ramps. Q2 will be all screwed up as COVID cratered the prior year numbers. (Again, COVID had virtually no effect on Q1 2020 registrations as those mostly represent Dec-Feb deliveries).

 

[RobStark]

Lordstown Motors flags cash crisis with 'going concern' warning

From Bloomberg: The electric vehicle startup that recently went public said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday, June 8, that it might not have the cash to get its debut pickup truck to market — and might not last as a company in the next 12 months if it can't raise more capital.

www.crainscleveland.com

 

[RobStark]

Sweden's Northvolt raises $2.8 bln to supercharge EV battery output | Headlines

Lithium-ion battery maker Northvolt has raised $2.75 billion in equity to expand capacity at the factory it is building in northern Sweden to meet increasing demand for electric cars.

www.devdiscourse.com

 

[RobStark]

Ford F-150 Lightning Exceeds 100,000 Reservations

Ford has confirmed that the total number of reservations of the Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck exceeded 100,000!

insideevs.com

 

[petit_bateau]

With thanks to EV Sales blogspot