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A couple years ago VW said Chattanooga would get cells from SKI's factory in Georgia. SKI's issues since then may have impacted that.


IMHO the 39 GWh included Panasonic's planned 14th line. That plus the 5% energy density increase took capacity from 34.xx to 39 GWh/year.


They don't have a tire factory, either. Or a headlight factory.


VW Group will sell a million EVs this year. They aren't dependent on a single model, they offer lots of choices. BEVs as well as PHEVs. Audis, Porsches, Skodas and SEAT/Cupras as well as VWs. Even within the limits of VW-branded BEVs they offer eUP and ID.6 as well as ID3/4.

Getting back to Ford, I agree with Rob that F-150 Lightning volumes will be moderate. The TCO numbers on the 230 mile version will work for a lot of high usage fleet buyers, but consumer demand will be limited relative to their ICE versions.

Car makers farmed out quite a bit of their production of sub-assemblies over the last 30-40 years. Subcontractors make most of your average ICE these days and the car maker only does three parts of production: they almost always make the engine, often the transmission, and do final assembly.

They saw those three parts as the most critical parts of the car that needed to be controlled at the company level. Everything else can be done by someone else.

Tesla recognized early on that controlling battery production and design is the key element in the making of an EV. They still partner with Panasonic, but the Model 3/Y's batteries are all made in a Tesla owned facility with a Tesla designed chemistry and Tesla designed package and go into a pack built by Tesla. The Model S/X batteries are made in Panasonic facilities, but with Tesla chemistry and cell design. All future Tesla vehicles will be made with batteries made next door, or as close as possible to the final assembly factory.

Tesla is the only company in the world outside of the Chinese home market anywhere close to mass producing EVs this year. Most legacy automakers are spooling up production, but almost all their plans are battery limited. If Ford truck buyers decide they don't want another ICE truck and will wait for a Lightning, even if it takes a while, Ford has just Osbourned itself because they can't get enough batteries fast enough.

All the legacy automakers are contracting with a relative handful of battery makers and if all of them want to increase their battery contracts at once, somebody is going to come up short because there will not be enough batteries to go around for a few years at least. There are a heck of a lot more battery plants being built now than a couple of years ago, but it will still be a year or two before those plants are approaching full capacity.

Tesla has basically captured Panasonic to make their batteries and they ensure there are enough facilities to make all they need. Tesla will likely be a bit tight on battery availability too for a few years, but their supply problem is going to be far less severe than all the legacy car makers trying to catch up.

The EV game is all about the batteries. Having an appealing car that is well made is a factor, but battery supply is right up there too. Having the most appealing EV in the world makes little difference when you only have enough batteries to make 50,000 a year and your competitor with an almost as nice vehicle can make a million a year. Collectors will really seek out your vehicle when your out of business, but that is little comfort. Ask the people who backed the Delorian.

Batteries for EVs are the key ingredient like engines and transmissions for ICE. If a company does not have close control over their supply of batteries they could find themselves in a world of hurt.
 
The FT ($$) is reporting that UK is in advanced talks with Nissan

"Nissan in advanced talks to build battery gigafactory in UK
Ambition to make Sunderland largest electric car plant outside Japan stepped up after Brexit deal"



also reported on by BBC without much content


My guess is UK Gov knows it is an economic disaster if they can't get at least 1m/yr BEV's made in UK, and a similar amount of cells going into stationary storage. And if they are struggling to bribe Tesla to come, then Nissan is their best other bet.
 
As an addendum to what wdolson wrote......

GM,Ford,Fiat-Chrysler spun off their internal automotive parts company.

Stellantis is considering selling their controlling stake in Faurecia auto parts giant to help fund their half of a 240 GWh Battery Company JV with Total SE.

VW and Ford have also announced their goals to have their Joint Ventures producing 240 GWh by 2030.

And GM and LG have announced two GF for a total of 65 GWh.

In sum OEMs getting out of the general parts business and getting into the manufacturing of BEV battery cells business.
 
As an addendum to what wdolson wrote......

GM,Ford,Fiat-Chrysler spun off their internal automotive parts company.

Stellantis is considering selling their controlling stake in Faurecia auto parts giant to help fund their half of a 240 GWh Battery Company JV with Total SE.

VW and Ford have also announced their goals to have their Joint Ventures producing 240 GWh by 2030.

And GM and LG have announced two GF for a total of 65 GWh.

In sum OEMs getting out of the general parts business and getting into the manufacturing of BEV battery cells business.

ie they're learning from Tesla.
 
Lightning reservations reached 70k this morning.

So versus Cybertruck reservations are running at about 30% pace over the same days after reveal. And initial Lightning production capacity will by about 27% of Cybertruck.

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There is a bit more meat in the Guardian re Nissan Sunderland this morning. If true the numbers are pitifully small .........

"Nissan is understood to be asking the UK government to provide tens of millions of pounds to build a new electric car battery “gigafactory” in Sunderland .

The Japanese carmaker hopes to support the construction of a factory, that could produce up to 200,000 batteries a year, at Nissan’s existing Sunderland site. The facility would be run by the company’s Chinese battery maker Envision AESC.

It is slated to open in 2024 and would produce 6 gigawatt hours of battery capacity a year, far more than Nissan’s existing Sunderland plant, which has a capacity of 1.9GWh. "


So that is either 23,750 cars/year with a typical Tesla-equivalent 80kWh pack, or 200,000 cars/year with a 9.5kWh pack. Either way ought to be a worry for the UK, but not for Tesla.
 
Tesla recognized early on that controlling battery production and design is the key element in the making of an EV.
They're doing great in China where they control neither.

There is no evidence for any Tesla cell chemistry "secret sauce". Tesla chooses from commercially available separators, electrolytes and electrode powders. Panasonic and others are happy to accommodate their choices, within reason.

DBE could be a true cell-level manufacturing (not chemistry) advance, if they can get it to work at scale. Big if, though.

Tesla is the only company in the world outside of the Chinese home market anywhere close to mass producing EVs this year.
How do you define mass production? VW's Zwickau plant alone should produce 275-300k this year.

Ford has just Osbourned itself because they can't get enough batteries fast enough.
Pure speculation. You have no idea how many batteries Ford needs or have contracted to get. What legacy EV has ever been limited by battery supply vs. long-term demand?

Tesla has basically captured Panasonic
Don't look for Panasonic and Tesla to work together beyond GF1. Tesla buys from LG, CATL and Samsung and will soon make their own cells. Panasonic is focused on Toyota going forward.

Batteries for EVs are the key ingredient like engines and transmissions for ICE. If a company does not have close control over their supply of batteries they could find themselves in a world of hurt.
So far "world of hurt" has not been caused by a lack of batteries. Nissan built battery factories and had to basically give them away. FCA got in trouble because they failed to design the EVs mandated by EU 95g, But PSA, who acquired FCA, seems to have no problems finding enough extra cells to meet the mandate. VAG almost tripled EV deliveries last year and more than doubled y/y in Q1 this year. How is battery supply crimping their growth?

90% of EVs bought outside the US last year were non-Tesla. Where did those other carmakers ever find enough cells without inhouse production?
 
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They're doing great in China where they control neither.

There is no evidence for any Tesla cell chemistry "secret sauce". Tesla chooses from commercially available separators, electrolytes and electrode powders. Panasonic and others are happy to accommodate their choices, within reason.


Pure speculation. You have no idea how many batteries Ford needs or have contracted to get. What legacy EV has ever been limited by battery supply vs. long-term demand?


So far "world of hurt" has not been caused by a lack of batteries. Nissan built battery factories and had to basically give them away. FCA got in trouble because they failed to design the EVs mandated by EU 95g, But PSA, who acquired FCA, seems to have no problems finding enough extra cells to meet the mandate. VAG almost tripled EV deliveries last year and more than doubled y/y in Q1 this year. How is battery supply crimping their growth?

90% of EVs bought outside the US last year were non-Tesla. Where did those other carmakers ever find enough cells without inhouse production?

1)China has massively incentivized/subsidized battery cell manufacturing for electric cars in order to dominate the automotive industry in the future. Therefore there is overcapacity in China. This is not the case elsewhere.

2)There is no evidence Tesla choses from chemistries and parts available to the entire industry and has no proprietary ingredients. This is unlikely.

3) We know Ford needs ~250 GWh to fully convert F Series to BEV but has a target of 240 GWh for 2030. We know Ford has contracted to buy cells from SKI's 2nd Georgia GF where capacity is 11.7 GWh . We know Ford has signed a MoU with SKI to for a JV that will build two GF with a total capacity for 60 GWh.

4) Nissan built a crappy nerfed EV. That is why they were unable to take advantage of internal cell production. VAG is building a bunch of compliance PHEVs with ~15 miles of AER so rich folks can drive ICEv while driving in downtown cities where ICE is banned. Combining low electric range PHEV and BEVs is pure greenwashing.

5)"90% outside of USA" includes bogus PHEVs in Europe and includes China. Where there is excess supply because of government policy for the last 20 years. VW has been able to play while the cat is building a GF in its backyard. VW knows they need internal supply to compete with Tesla in the future. That is why they are targeting 240 GWh of cell production for Europe alone from their JVs. VW is not depending on the market to magically create 240 GWh for them in Europe by 2030. Neither is Stellantis.
 
They're doing great in China where they control neither.
You don't really know what they control. We do know they control battery production and design, "battery" does not equal "cells".

There is no evidence for any Tesla cell chemistry "secret sauce". Tesla chooses from commercially available separators, electrolytes and electrode powders. Panasonic and others are happy to accommodate their choices, within reason.
We do know that people who have tested Tesla cells say they behave differently than other Panasonic off the shelf cells. With the work of Jeff Dahn and others on small amounts of proprietary additives causing changes in cell behavior it's quite likely that Tesla does specify "secret sauce" in their cells. (I would assume the CATL LiFePO4 cells are fully developed by CATL but they also aren't the cutting edge of energy density.)
 
Or the Ford rep was incorrect and/or Marques' estimate of unloaded range was wrong.

Yeah, it is likely Ford Rep whose job it is to inform the press doesn't know what he is talking about. Ford PR wants to misinform the public to raise expectations then have them dashed.

Yeah, Ford engineers put up a fake screen in the infotainment to trick Marques. To raise expectations then have them dashed.

Yeah, Ford PR now knows bad information is out there creating unrealistic expectations but doesn't correct it.

All likely possibilities.
 
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