Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Glad to see GM continues to lead the industry.... in press releases about future targets they've end up consistently missing year after year after year after year...
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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
I'd be shocked if I am not riding in my fully autonomous Cybertruck that was dropped off at my house by a fully autonomous fully electric Semi by the end of this year.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That analogy is almost as poor as the production rate of EV Hummers!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
12 Hummers per day is infinitely more EV trucks per day than current Cybertruck production per day.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
And what is expected to be roughly 1.5 million total EVs production in 2022 from Tesla is gonna be close to infinitely more than all the EVs GM is gonna make this year.
"We make an hilariously few of one specific EV" is a poor defense of a company that has been issuing press releases for almost a decade now about how they're gonna be a leader in the field.
Especially when that one specific EV is pretty garbage. The battery alone weighs more than a lot of cars do. The efficiency is embarrassingly poor. Which I guess is on brand for hummer- but doesn't demonstrate a company serious about making EVs.
VW is serious about EVs.
Hyundai/Kia/Genesis is serious about EVs.
Hell even Ford is getting reasonably serious about EVs.
They're all WAY behind on output (VW being the only one not hilariously so) but they appear to be making genuine serious effort in EVs.
The only thing GM is serious about is announcing how serious they are.
That's from 2015
Far as I can see the only time they ever had any "leadership" position was the EV1, that they killed off after a few years in the late 1990s.
And the only thing they ended up disrupting was LGs profit margins when they had to spend billions paying to recall every Bolt ever made.
That's from October 2017. Telling us how they'd launch two new EVs based on what they learned from the Bolt in the next 18 months.... and they'd introduce 20 new EV models by 2023.
How'd that turn out?
Well, 18 months later they'd introduced *checks notes*... zero.... zero new EV models.
In fact, as of even 36 months later they'd introduced... zero... zero new EV models.
Arguably, if you count the Bolt EUV as a "new" model, they finally introduced ONE new EV just short of 48 months after that 18 month promise...but it's on the same dated platform the bolt is, so that's not really new is it? (nor is the Bolt they sell in China with a buick sticker on it)
Their first actual new EV was the hummer.... so over 48 months from their 18 month promise, and only one. And one requiring enough battery cells to make three actual useful EVs per Hummer if they were serious about making actual useful EVs.
They finally got to 2 actual new EVs with the Lyriq.... well, I mean, they did start building them--- they haven't actually delivered any...but they will probably deliver the first one before they hit 5 years since they promised to accomplish this in 18 months.
Anyway... as to the other 18 new EVs they promised by 2023.... well... I guess we can throw em a bone and count the BrightDrop Zevo 600? They only delivered a handful, and only to a single commercial customer, but I guess they are technically a new EV and they PLAN to sell them to consumers so sure let's count that.....
Kinda doubting they're gonna introduce another 17 to hit their 2023 goal though.
Heck at the LA auto show barely more than 6 months ago even toyota the king of not being serious about EVs had a new EV on display.
Know how many GM had? Zero.
Maybe you're more optimistic than me
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
I guess you don't count the Bolt EUV as a new model, since it's just a slightly different body with the same interior and drive train? That's reasonable. But by the same token you can't really count Model Y as new. Which means Tesla hasn't shipped a new EV in .... checks notes ..... five yearsAnd what is expected to be roughly 1.5 million total EVs production in 2022 from Tesla is gonna be close to infinitely more than all the EVs GM is gonna make this year.
"We make an hilariously few of one specific EV" is a poor defense of a company that has been issuing press releases for almost a decade now about how they're gonna be a leader in the field.
Especially when that one specific EV is pretty garbage. The battery alone weighs more than a lot of cars do. The efficiency is embarrassingly poor. Which I guess is on brand for hummer- but doesn't demonstrate a company serious about making EVs.
VW is serious about EVs.
Hyundai/Kia/Genesis is serious about EVs.
Hell even Ford is getting reasonably serious about EVs.
They're all WAY behind on output (VW being the only one not hilariously so) but they appear to be making genuine serious effort in EVs.
The only thing GM is serious about is announcing how serious they are.
That's from 2015
Far as I can see the only time they ever had any "leadership" position was the EV1, that they killed off after a few years in the late 1990s.
And the only thing they ended up disrupting was LGs profit margins when they had to spend billions paying to recall every Bolt ever made.
That's from October 2017. Telling us how they'd launch two new EVs based on what they learned from the Bolt in the next 18 months.... and they'd introduce 20 new EV models by 2023.
How'd that turn out?
Well, 18 months later they'd introduced *checks notes*... zero.... zero new EV models.
In fact, as of even 36 months later they'd introduced... zero... zero new EV models.
Arguably, if you count the Bolt EUV as a "new" model, they finally introduced ONE new EV just short of 48 months after that 18 month promise...but it's on the same dated platform the bolt is, so that's not really new is it? (nor is the Bolt they sell in China with a buick sticker on it)
Their first actual new EV was the hummer.... so over 48 months from their 18 month promise, and only one. And one requiring enough battery cells to make three actual useful EVs per Hummer if they were serious about making actual useful EVs.
They finally got to 2 actual new EVs with the Lyriq.... well, I mean, they did start building them--- they haven't actually delivered any...but they will probably deliver the first one before they hit 5 years since they promised to accomplish this in 18 months.
Anyway... as to the other 18 new EVs they promised by 2023.... well... I guess we can throw em a bone and count the BrightDrop Zevo 600? They only delivered a handful, and only to a single commercial customer, but I guess they are technically a new EV and they PLAN to sell them to consumers so sure let's count that.....
Kinda doubting they're gonna introduce another 17 to hit their 2023 goal though.
Heck at the LA auto show barely more than 6 months ago even toyota the king of not being serious about EVs had a new EV on display.
Know how many GM had? Zero.
Maybe you're more optimistic than me
I agree GM is a joke. But so far VW Group has only sold what's legally required in Europe. EU 95g essentially forces 20% of their mix to be EVs this year. Since they nominally sell 4m cars/year in Europe, that's 800k EVs. Both numbers will be lower this year due to supply chain, but that's what they're set up to do. They planned to sell those same vehicles in China and North America, but it's not going well. They're way under the quota in China and had to buy NEV credits from Tesla. And they sell only handfuls in the US.
At least GM has the SGMW joint venture in China that sells half a million mini-BEVs per year. Those are very useful cars in Chinese cities. And since you bashed Hummer for using enough batteries to make three Model 3 SRs, shouldn't you also bash the 3SR for using enough batteries to make five Hongguang Minis?
I guess you don't count the Bolt EUV as a new model, since it's just a slightly different body with the same interior and drive train? That's reasonable. But by the same token you can't really count Model Y as new. Which means Tesla hasn't shipped a new EV in .... checks notes ..... five years
I agree GM is a joke. But so far VW Group has only sold what's legally required in Europe. EU 95g essentially forces 20% of their mix to be EVs this year. Since they nominally sell 4m cars/year in Europe, that's 800k EVs. Both numbers will be lower this year due to supply chain, but that's what they're set up to do. They planned to sell those same vehicles in China and North America, but it's not going well. They're way under the quota in China and had to buy NEV credits from Tesla. And they sell only handfuls in the US.
At least GM has the SGMW joint venture in China that sells half a million mini-BEVs per year. Those are very useful cars in Chinese cities. And since you bashed Hummer for using enough batteries to make three Model 3 SRs, shouldn't you also bash the 3SR for using enough batteries to make five Hongguang Minis?
Tesla has been lagging with the new models on the market, but they have refreshed the Model S and X and they have been producing more of the 3 and Y than most of the rest of the industry combined.
It is past time they got the Cybertruck into production. The Semi and Roadster are MIA too.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
GM first Giga battery JV in Ohio will start producing battery cells this year.
VW's first JV with NorthVolt won't start production till 2025. VW owns 20% of NorthVolt and will buy batteries from Sweden but won't start German JV production till 2025.
Ford signed a MoU with SK Innovations to build JV Giga factories but yet no firm agreement.
GM has installed the final beam in the construction of its second JV battery factory.
businessjournaldaily.com
GM has in total approved 3 JV battery Giga factories that will produce in the 30-40 GWh each. And a 4th is immanent.
BEV sales are not constrained by demand. Or automakers ability to make gliders. It is the ability to manufacture/acquire cells.
GM is ahead of all the legacy OEMs. VW current lead over GM BEV sales globally and Ford's BEV sales lead in North America are ephemeral.
VW's first JV with NorthVolt won't start production till 2025. VW owns 20% of NorthVolt and will buy batteries from Sweden but won't start German JV production till 2025.
Ford signed a MoU with SK Innovations to build JV Giga factories but yet no firm agreement.
GM has installed the final beam in the construction of its second JV battery factory.
Ultium Cells Reaches Milestone in Tennessee - Business Journal Daily | The Youngstown Publishing Company
SPRING HILL, Tenn. – Workers on the Spring Hill, Tennessee, Ultium Cells battery cell manufacturing facility site have installed their final beam for the 2.8-million-square-foot operation. A “topping off” ceremony was held as the final beam was placed. Leaders, trade…
businessjournaldaily.com
GM has in total approved 3 JV battery Giga factories that will produce in the 30-40 GWh each. And a 4th is immanent.
BEV sales are not constrained by demand. Or automakers ability to make gliders. It is the ability to manufacture/acquire cells.
GM is ahead of all the legacy OEMs. VW current lead over GM BEV sales globally and Ford's BEV sales lead in North America are ephemeral.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I guess you don't count the Bolt EUV as a new model, since it's just a slightly different body with the same interior and drive train? That's reasonable. But by the same token you can't really count Model Y as new. Which means Tesla hasn't shipped a new EV in .... checks notes ..... five years
Well, I can though- because esp. with front and rear gigacastings-- and now structural packs in 4680 cars- they're not the same platform for a slightly longer body.
But even if you didn't- Tesla didn't ever promise to spit out 20 new EV models by now did they?
VW is certainly way behind where it wants to be according to Diess- and both his own board and the germany unions have been fighting him tooth and nail on electrification to the company's detriment.....yet they're still the only legacy company in the world managing 6-figure output of EVs so far.
IIRC GM makes like $7 profit per car on those minicars. Tesla wouldn't exist if it was in that market, let alone be able to keep scaling output.
And yet VW produced vastly more EVs in 2021 than GM did.
And will again this year.
And will again next year.
And GM has been telling us that since like 2015 as they fall even further behind in EV sales.
It's like the nonsense "inflation is transitory" BS the FED was trying to convince everyone of.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
It's mostly customers fighting him. Mainstream customers will buy EVs if they cost the same, but few will pay extra. EU 95g gives VW Group (and others) a mechanism to equalize upfront cost, so they sell plenty there. But they're in serious trouble in China and only a little better off in the US.
6 figures? Per month? VAG is not near that. Maybe by year end. Strong emphasis on maybe.
Pretty much every player except Euro-absent OEMs like GM and Honda will be above 100k this year. Hyundai/Kia and Stellantis could hit 500k.
I think it's all about the 0.8 NEV credits, which allows them to keep selling bigger, more expensive ICE cars.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, per year. Tesla got there in 2017, but that was a pretty hard target in 2021 for most legacy companies.
I think that is overstating things a bit?
In addition to GM, the largest OEM of all Toyota won't come remotely close to 100k BEVs this year.
Honda as you mention won't. Nissan sure won't.
Ford may or may not- the stop sale on the Mach E sure isn't helping though.
BMW might (I think they sold ~35k in Q1, didn't see Q2 breakout yet but if it's not down badly they should be ok)... Mercedes sold just over 20k in Q1 again haven't seen Q2 # yet so they're also a maybe for 100k.
So really apart from VW, Stellantis, and Hyundai/Kia I don't see the slam dunk for "pretty much every player" you appear to hitting that #.
And while most legacy is either hoping to, or unlikely to, hit 100k, Tesla was already next 10x that last year and will continue avg 50% CAGR through the end of the decade.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
I include PHEVs. It makes no sense to me that someone who buys a BYD Han EV and plugs it in every night counts as an EV sale but someone who buys a 50+ mile Han PHEV and plugs it in every night does not.
Should we exclude fake PHEVs sold in Europe to exploit EU-95 loopholes? Sure. But those are being regulated away and will soon be a rounding error.
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi will. Most consider them to be a "group", like VW Group, but if you don't that's fine.
Ford will, even if you exclude all PHEVs. They suspended Mach E deliveries a few weeks but kept making them and taking orders.
BMW will, even if you exclude all PHEVs. They sold 76k BEVs in 1H. Mercedes sold 27k BEVs (plus 47k PHEVs) in Q1 (page 5). Preliminary numbers suggest they'll be over 50k at the halfway mark and they've been starting up new BEV lines for H2.
So we started with VW is "the only legacy company in the world managing 6-figure output of EVs", then moved the goalposts to "VW, Stellantis and Hyundai/Kia". And that still misses BMW, Mercedes and Ford. And arguably Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi. And even those goalposts exclude all PHEVs so you can ignore Toyota and newly-public Volvo.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
PHEVs absolutely don't count. At all.
If it has an ICE it's not an electric car.
Perhaps you missed the very title of the thread says bev?
And my statement missed BMW, Mercedes, and Ford, because 0 of them have given us full year results in the 6 figures so far.
It's POSSIBLE one or more will by end of THIS year-- but I was citing past performance, not future results- see my remark "that was a pretty hard target in 2021 for most legacy companies.
"
And the value of future results at that target #, as "competition" for Tesla, keeps moving further away as Tesla keeps scaling.
VW selling nearly 50% of the BEVs Tesla did in 2021- that's legitimately worthwhile as competition.
Mercedes POSSIBLY hoping (if they make it to 100k at all) to sell, in 2022, not quite 50% of the BEVs Tesla did in 2018....and likely 1/15th Teslas 2022 sales...less so.
No, they're NOT still taking orders.
They stopped taking them a few months ago. Before the stop-sale order for the contactor problems came up.
They won't start again- for next years models, until August at the earliest.
And deliveries are STILL suspended BTW, have been since June 14th, and they're recalling nearly 50,000 of them in the US alone for the contactor problem.
If it has an ICE it's not an electric car.
Perhaps you missed the very title of the thread says bev?
And my statement missed BMW, Mercedes, and Ford, because 0 of them have given us full year results in the 6 figures so far.
It's POSSIBLE one or more will by end of THIS year-- but I was citing past performance, not future results- see my remark "that was a pretty hard target in 2021 for most legacy companies.
"
And the value of future results at that target #, as "competition" for Tesla, keeps moving further away as Tesla keeps scaling.
VW selling nearly 50% of the BEVs Tesla did in 2021- that's legitimately worthwhile as competition.
Mercedes POSSIBLY hoping (if they make it to 100k at all) to sell, in 2022, not quite 50% of the BEVs Tesla did in 2018....and likely 1/15th Teslas 2022 sales...less so.
No, they're NOT still taking orders.
They stopped taking them a few months ago. Before the stop-sale order for the contactor problems came up.
They won't start again- for next years models, until August at the earliest.
And deliveries are STILL suspended BTW, have been since June 14th, and they're recalling nearly 50,000 of them in the US alone for the contactor problem.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It makes total sense, the EV buyer has no choice but to plug in, the hybrid buyer does, and stats show they often are not.
Not if you have a tiny 15-mile battery but PHEV with 40+ mile electric range are typically plugged in regularly in my experience (as a former Volt PHEV owner).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
GM data at one point showed that a significant number of people did not regularly plug in.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
My mistake. You could go to a dealer and buy (not order) an inventory car, you just couldn't take delivery.
Dealers got the s/w update in late June and resumed deliveries. Check the forums and you'll find people who got their cars.
It was a small number of fleet cars. It's the same story as Europe, bad incentives produce bad behavior. But even including that misuse GM reported 63% of first-gen Volt miles were on electricity. That's 63% of the benefit with 25% of the kWhs. And the 2nd gen Volt and other recent non-fake PHEVs run the ICE much less frequently.
PHEV owners who pay for fuel overwhelmingly prefer electricity. It's nuts how many BEV fanatics expound endlessly about how wonderful it is to save money and avoid smelly gas stations, then turn right around and say if given a choice PHEV owners will always pay extra to visit those same smelly gas stations.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's nuts how many hybrid fanatics try to insist they are the same as EV's while at the same time talking about the differences. They aren't the same vehicle in design, production, and use, nor should they be treated as such.
2023 Bolt production pushed back again, but not much, July 26th.
Will be interested to see how many 2022 Bolts were made in Q2 when earnings come out.
GM Authority: 2023 Chevy Bolt EV, Bolt EUV Production Start Moved Back Again.
Will be interested to see how many 2022 Bolts were made in Q2 when earnings come out.
GM Authority: 2023 Chevy Bolt EV, Bolt EUV Production Start Moved Back Again.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It appears it's less a fix (because it's a hardware problem) and more a "band aid that makes it more likely you'll be able to limp your defective vehicle to the dealer if needed" update.
your source said:
IN A RELATED STORY
2021-22 Mustang Mach-E owners slap Ford with federal lawsuit over safety defect
Ford is hit with its second lawsuit seeking class-action status, claiming company should've known of defects, this time in the Mustang Mach-E.
www.freep.com
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