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#4,902
FjdWU1SXgAgyFeL

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600843111441502210
 
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#4,903
9837264723849 said:
FjdWU1SXgAgyFeL

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600843111441502210
Click to expand...
  1. RTs are on way the which means the following is not required
  2. Tesla are selling everything they can make at inflated prices which means the following is not required
  3. If you introduce a less expensive vehicle you won't sell as many of the more expensive vehicles
  4. 30% margin profit is greater for more expensive vehicles
  5. It is more difficult to hold 30% margin (or even 20%) with a less expensive vehicle
3, 4 and 5 combined is a slippery slope.
 
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#4,904
On the demand front:

I think of it as:

  1. There is still a global backlog - Thailand has just come online with many willing to pay a premium in other countries not yet served
  2. There is an initial demand that can last for years - neighbours doing Tesla's marketing job etc.
  3. There is a base level demand that is not diminished month by month - people's leases run out etc.
  4. Incentives (IRA etc.) from government
  5. Short term price drop such as China rn
  6. Fast availability (ie inventory) - often with FSD etc included for free
  7. Non financial demand levers - new paint colours / Apple Music right through to a mid life update
  8. Price drop of $1000 creates significant demand and can be repeated
  9. Price drop of $5000 creates huge demand
Tesla are using a combo of 1-7 dependant on country, factory, date and model. They don't need to progress to 9 until they are using 1-8 to their fullest.
 
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#4,906
Buckminster said:
Tesla are selling everything they can make at inflated prices which means the following is not required
Click to expand...
Not anymore, it seems.

With the subsidies ending this year, one should really expect Tesla to be
- producing absolute MAX of vehicles in China now
- selling every produced vehicle with ease
- may be even increase price (or prioritize higher trims)

But what we see is
- reduction in production
- multiple price reductions / incentives

Just think back at tax credits ending in the US. We definitely didn't see Tesla having to reduce prices to move the vehicles !

Now - whats going to happen in 2023, with subsidies ending ? One thing they could do is export more .... to US. But Elon has already said they won't import from China (and with zero cars imported from China by anyone .... its going to be a difficult thing to sell to people not used to make in China cars). As Berlin expands, exports to EU may become less, let alone increase. So, what happens to production capacity in China ... can they make 1M cars in China at the current prices and sell them ?
 
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#4,907
EVNow said:
So, what happens to production capacity in China ... can they make 1M cars in China at the current prices and sell them ?
Click to expand...

Tesla can start by adding new markets with which China has a free trade agreement or at least friendly trade relations.

Thailand has zero import taxes on imported electric Chinese cars. Thailand does have a 60% import tax on US made cars and 100% import tax on US made luxury cars.

Tesla China can add Saudi Arabia next. Lucid is the preferred premium electric vehicle brand of the House of Saud. But Elon thinks Lucid is not long for this world.

insideevs.com

Tesla Has Officially Launched In Thailand

Tesla has officially launched in Thailand. Buyers can now order the Model 3 and Y, however delivery dates are not currently displayed.
insideevs.com insideevs.com
 
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#4,908
RobStark said:
Tesla can start by adding new markets with which China has a free trade agreement or at least friendly trade relations.

Thailand has zero import taxes on imported electric Chinese cars. Thailand does have a 60% import tax on US made cars and 100% import tax on US made luxury cars.

Tesla China can add Saudi Arabia next. Lucid is the preferred premium electric vehicle brand of the House of Saud. But Elon thinks Lucid is not long for this world.

insideevs.com

Tesla Has Officially Launched In Thailand

Tesla has officially launched in Thailand. Buyers can now order the Model 3 and Y, however delivery dates are not currently displayed.
insideevs.com insideevs.com
Click to expand...
You are talking about countries that buy like 20k luxury cars a year. We are talking 1M a year capacity in China.
 
#4,909
EVNow said:
You are talking about countries that buy like 20k luxury cars a year. We are talking 1M a year capacity in China.
Click to expand...


Saudi Arabia buys like ~500k cars a year. Over 150k of those are over $50k. Even if they are Toyota Avalons, Toyota Alphards, GMC Savanas and Chevrolet Suburbans not categorized as "luxury cars."

In reading about Lucid, they will be able to export to China duty free from Saudi Arabia. I take it the reverse is also true.

BMW sells ~2k cars per year in Thailand. Largely because of import taxes.

Tesla won't face those. Initial reports are very good on Thailand bookings. Thailand total auto market is over 1M units per year.
 
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#4,919
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#4,920
7.5 tonne electric truck for customers at a facility in Tilbury, Essex, after receiving European type approval .......... aim of selling 1,000 vehicles in 2023. It has had test vehicles on the road with the delivery company UPS since late 2019. ........ Tevva is not the first company to produce electric lorries in the UK: the Dutch lorrymaker DAF Trucks builds its 19-tonne LF Electric at its Leyland subsidiary in Lancashire. However, DAF is not producing hundreds of trucks a year on a production line. The Tevva trucks will have a 140-miles range from a 105kWh battery, which is nearly double the size of those used in a standard electric car.

www.theguardian.com

Tevva begins first high-volume production of electric lorries in UK

Startup firm making 7.5 tonne truck at Essex facility after receiving European type approval
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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