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Cybertruck is meant to be a big volume pickup truck. Elon hopes it will become the new normal.
Hummer was always Niche. Best year was ~35k unit sales.
Cybertruck starts at $40k. Rivian at $67.5k. and Hummer at $80k.
I think $80k Hummers will be as common as $35k Model 3s.
At most Hummer sales will equal peak Model X sales. Maybe 50k units. But very profitable.
Rivian has aspirations of being a mainstream big volume OEM. Amazon isn't investing big money in hopes Rivian becomes the electric Land Rover/Range Rover. I see Rivian aspiring to reduce prices as volume increases.
As I've said and you well know the penalty for poor efficiency is much lower in an ICE than an EV. Your range won't get cut in half in extreme conditions, fueling options are everywhere, and fueling times are under 10 minutes. How many Hummer buyers do you think will fully research and understand the differences? I'm guessing very few.Disagree. ICE Hummer among least efficient ICEv ever built.
It says HUMMER in big bold letters up front. Not Prius.
As I've said and you well know the penalty for poor efficiency is much lower in an ICE than an EV. Your range won't get cut in half in extreme conditions, fueling options are everywhere, and fueling times are under 10 minutes. How many Hummer buyers do you think will fully research and understand the differences? I'm guessing very few.
Doug DeMuro (the Youtube car review guy) has opined that the market the Cybertruck is likely to make the deepest penetration into is the Jeep market. He thinks the mainstream pickup market is going to be too conventional to go for the Cybertruck. They're more likely to hold out for the electric Silverado or F-150. Even if the Cybertruck is a better vehicle.
as an aside, there was a Green Festival at the Convention Center in DC, probably 10 years ago that had a Hydrogen powered Hummer on static displayAs I've said and you well know the penalty for poor efficiency is much lower in an ICE than an EV. Your range won't get cut in half in extreme conditions, fueling options are everywhere, and fueling times are under 10 minutes. How many Hummer buyers do you think will fully research and understand the differences? I'm guessing very few.
This is the conventional view. And I mostly agree with it.
Many customers will think Cybertruck dashboard is a deal breaker IMO.
Musk disagrees.
The conventional view on the investor forum is the Cybertruck is the One Truck to Rule Them All. And no one else will be able to sell trucks in much more than niche volume once fully ramped up because Cybertruck and Superchager Network are so damn awesome.
In this Hummer EV ad, there's a Tesla wall connector in the background
! Wow - carbon-copy! If you only look at the picture, you would think that Tesla did a slight semi-redesign."The first heavy-duty electric truck from Geely Commercial Vehicles is set to be revealed in mid-2021."
A Tesla Semi "look-alike"
4 hours!? Worst straw-man ever! Goes to show that the people promoting 'Fool Cells' are, off course, fools.Toyota showing how serious they are about electrification:
View attachment 653073
The conventional view on the investor forum is the Cybertruck is the One Truck to Rule Them All. And no one else will be able to sell trucks in much more than niche volume once fully ramped up because Cybertruck and Supercharger Network are so damn awesome.
This is the conventional view. And I mostly agree with it.
Many customers will think Cybertruck dashboard is a deal breaker IMO.
Musk disagrees.
The conventional view on the investor forum is the Cybertruck is the One Truck to Rule Them All. And no one else will be able to sell trucks in much more than niche volume once fully ramped up because Cybertruck and Superchager Network are so damn awesome.
but the cybertruck is the one that’s going to wreck whatever the profitability of Ford, GM and Dodge have left
Even if cybertruck does not rule the pickup landscape and leaves enough sales for electric F-150, Rivian etc., as long as Tesla easily sells all they can make it can be considered a smashing success. I have strong confidence that will be the case. Heck, I have a reservation and I never thought I would ever buy a pickup-truck before, but the price and utility combination convinced me that it is better replacement for my aging Model S than a (more expensive) new Model S would be.
If making lots of money is a smashing success then yes.
IF accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to electric mobility then not if the same people buying ICE trucks continue buying ICE trucks until they are legislated out of existence in 2030-40 and then they continue refurbishing remanufacturing ICE trucks until gasoline stations are legislated out of existence.
Lots of people saying they have Cybertruck reservations say the same thing. I am not a truck person and have never considered buying a truck. To really accelerate the transition you have to get ICE truck owners to switch. Not get Model 3/S and Lexus owners to switch.
And I don't see Rivian cannibalizing Detroit iron either. I see Rivian cannibalizing mostly Subaru/Audi Allroad sales.
If Detroit doesn't see their lunch being eaten they will cater and market their electric trucks to the same Urban Cowboys the startup electric trucks are catered to. They won't offer serious hauling/towing ratings for their electric trucks. They won't offer styling/design rural folks want and expect. Urban drivers switching their 35 MPG sedans for 75 MPGe electric trucks doesn't move the needle as much as I hoped Tesla's electric pickup would a few years back. I was hoping mostly people that get 10 mpg in an ICE pickup would switch to a 100 MPGe Tesla pickup.
If making lots of money is a smashing success then yes.
IF accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to electric mobility then not if the same people buying ICE trucks continue buying ICE trucks until they are legislated out of existence in 2030-40 and then they continue refurbishing remanufacturing ICE trucks until gasoline stations are legislated out of existence.
Lots of people saying they have Cybertruck reservations say the same thing. I am not a truck person and have never considered buying a truck. To really accelerate the transition you have to get ICE truck owners to switch. Not get Model 3/S and Lexus owners to switch.
And I don't see Rivian cannibalizing Detroit iron either. I see Rivian cannibalizing mostly Subaru/Audi Allroad sales.
If Detroit doesn't see their lunch being eaten they will cater and market their electric trucks to the same Urban Cowboys the startup electric trucks are catered to. They won't offer serious hauling/towing ratings for their electric trucks. They won't offer styling/design rural folks want and expect. Urban drivers switching their 35 MPG sedans for 75 MPGe electric trucks doesn't move the needle as much as I hoped Tesla's electric pickup would a few years back. I was hoping mostly people that get 10 mpg in an ICE pickup would switch to a 100 MPGe Tesla pickup.
All the same, if Tesla never built a Cybertruck, Ford would never build an electric F150. It's OK with me if the Cybertruck does not appeal to all the ICE pickup owners. I think it may appeal to more of them than you give it credit for, but even if I'm wrong that would be OK. The CyberTruck should show the OEMs and the truck owners what an electric pickup can do. At that point, if people are saying "this wonky looking thing can accelerate better, tow more, power my tools, and starts every day with a full tank" it's not that far to "so why can't you make a normal-looking one that does that too?" At some point the loud, slow, expensive to fuel and maintain, polluting ICE truck will look less attractive, even if the CyberTruck is not the go-to option to replace it.
And that's one piece of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.
My neighbor is one of the few people I've encountered who want to go from an ICE pickup to a Cybertruck, but most ICE truck drivers today are usually more conventional in their vehicle tastes. The Cybertruck is a weird looking vehicle and they don't like that. The Venn diagram of people who don't believe we should be moving away from fossil fuels and pickup truck owners has a lot of overlap too.