Tesla EV Tax Credits coming back?

[t.e.s.l.a_dude]

At this point demand is very very high. Model 3 Performance delivery moved now from November to December on the order page. So regardless of credit, the demand is there.

 

[torifile]

They’ve already kick started demand with the Obama era legislation. We’re way past that point in the adoption curve. We’re now hitting the upslope in the growth curve and manufactures can’t keep up with existing demand.

These incentives will have zero impact on the number of EVs bought or sold for at least another 2-3 years. Doesn’t matter if the incentive is $0 or 20k, Tesla, VW, and Ford, are selling every single BEV they can manufacture.

So you’re making a bear case for TSLA, then. I’m sure you’re not bearish if you’ve got a position on the stock. Ask yourself why that is.

 

[torifile]

If the government is spending 10s of billions of dollars, there should actually be a demonstrable problem they are addressing.

You are suggesting they spend money “Just in case” demand for EVs falls off a cliff in 9 months.

You are the one pushing crystal ball based policy.

I actually did nothing of the sort. I was suggesting that it makes sense to accelerate the slope. It’s the administration’s position that it’s in our (and the climate’s) best interests to get off of fossil files ASAP; accelerating the adoption curve serves that purpose. They want everyone in an EV. Car manufacturers will have great incentive to do that.

 

[torifile]

Today's video on this topic on YT by BeardedTeslaGuy said that as it stands now this will be a POS incentive. How would POS incentive and income limits work together? Is it based on previous year's numbers? Or based on income in tax year of the purchase. If it is the latter how would it work?

My guess (it’s purely a guess) is that there will be a line for EV credit received on the 2022 tax return. If a tax payer earned more than the cutoff, they’ll have that added to their tax owed. It’s not that hard.

 

[tangible1]

My guess (it’s purely a guess) is that there will be a line for EV credit received on the 2022 tax return. If a tax payer earned more than the cutoff, they’ll have that added to their tax owed. It’s not that hard.

Don't be quite so confident. It's the Government and the IRS.
Not so all-seeing or knowing. ;-)

 

[986racer]

Don't be quite so confident. It's the Government and the IRS.
Not so all-seeing or knowing. ;-)

It should be that simple though. Tesla will likely need to get some type of identification from you and your rebate will be reported to the IRS. So, if you don't report that you received the rebate, you are likely going to be facing some penalties (technically, it would be fraud). If your AGI is over a certain number, you will lose the benefit of that rebate and you'll have to pay it back.

It's no different than those who received the stimulus checks based on a previous year's income and then found out that their current income was too high for them to qualify.

 

[plibby1985]

Free fsd for 2021 deliveries.

 

[Noflash]

The simplest approach would be to tell the oldest orders still on hold to pick up the vehicle by EOY or have their order cancelled. i.e., put a 3 months max hold limit, and force older holds to make a decision. They are anyway getting a discount almost equal to the benefit we could expect in 2022 from the federal government.

Or they could not be evil and just let us pick our cars up in January. Telsa had no problem pushing my order forward and back by weeks and months at a time. Now I just need a couple extra weeks. My hold is up 12/1. They can afford it.

If I don't take delivery, I'll have to reorder, wait until next Summer, pay an extra $4k, lose my order fee, pay the more expensive order fee, but I'll get the $8k credit, and have a much larger down payment. Though I will be pissed at Tesla. I may have to look at other brands by then.

First world problems...

 

[Viv1984]

Free fsd for 2021 deliveries.

I hope they either discounted or give free FSD to Nov/Dec deliveries. Or discount the price of the car (I know they won't). They can make back the money pretty easily with the price increases already done plus the aren't newer cars going to save them money with the new packs and structures? They can just put off discounting the price (if they ever were going to). It's not like Tesla is or ever will be hurting for money

 

[Spidey616]

Free fsd for 2021 deliveries.

I would honestly consider not delaying my delivery if they did that. That being said though I don't think FSD in it's current form is worth $8k.

 

[torifile]

Free fsd for 2021 deliveries.

I have no interest in FSD. I do have interest in cold, hard cash. Besides, it’d be dumb for Tesla to do anything like that. The incentive costs them absolutely nothing. Aside from the carrying cost of the cars on their books, having people delay purchases also costs them nothing.

 

[mackgriggs]

That’s possible but the income limit is so high… If I’ve got $800k of yearly taxable income then I’m probably not going to hassle with it for $10k.

An interesting read is "The Millionaire Next Door" by Thomas Stanley. Basically, many "new rich", those that started their own businesses, worked hard and lived below their means, are surprisingly stingy with their money. I bet when there is such an easy loophole that yes, they might go through the extra steps. Especially if its a cash sale, so there isn't even a loan to deal with. The title transfer for a sale between family members is literally a tiny 1 page form.

Looks like there is a provision in the bill...which states:

``(B) which is acquired for use by the taxpayer and
not for resale,

But the family member could easily buy the vehicle, say they drove it for a week and hated it, and then sell it to their wealthy family member.

Seems the hardest part would be if there was already a reservation under one person's name, and if the sales associate would allow a change to a different family member to put on the title.

This is all hypothetical of course. Having such a high income limit ($800K) is affecting such a small percentage of the population that its really just for optics. If it was a $100K income limit, then that would really be affecting a lot of potential tesla buyers.

 

[Kairide]

Tesla won’t want to have every delivery postponed until Q1 2022, or else their Q4 numbers will look really bad and shareholders don’t like that. They will try and get those cars to others willing to take delivery before the year is over. It’s not like they will just sit with all these undelivered cars in a lot until January 1st. So if thousands of people delay delivery, but don’t want to get bumped to the end of the line, theoretically everyone else waiting would get get bumped even further down the line. I don’t want to wait even longer for my delivery just because people are refusing deliveries.

 

[PNWLeccy]

Tesla won’t want to have every delivery postponed until Q1 2022, or else their Q4 numbers will look really bad and shareholders don’t like that. They will try and get those cars to others willing to take delivery before the year is over. It’s not like they will just sit with all these undelivered cars in a lot until January 1st. So if thousands of people delay delivery, but don’t want to get bumped to the end of the line, theoretically everyone else waiting would get get bumped even further down the line. I don’t want to wait even longer for my delivery just because people are refusing deliveries.

Elon sent out a company-wide email to employees at the end of Q3 where he stated the goal was to reduce delivery waves and let some deliveries slip to Q1. This could be because he expected there could be tax credits passed or simply because they are focusing on getting GigaTexas running smoothly and stockpiling some vehicles now to even out eventual deliveries. Email below for reference:

The end of the quarter delivery wave is unusually high this time as we suffered (like the rest of the industry) from extremely severe parts shortages earlier this quarter. This meant building a lot of cars with missing parts that needed to be added later. I’d like to thank all Tesla techs and contractors that helped add back the missing parts, often in very difficult conditions. You rock!

And we are for sure dying to reduce the size of the end-of-the-quarter delivery wave! The goal is to do so in Q4 (allowing some Q4 production to spill over to delivery in Q1). However, early Q3 production was so challenging that we need to go super hardcore to make up for it over the next ~22 days to ensure a decent Q3 delivery number. This is the biggest wave in Tesla history, but we got to get it done.

Much appreciated,
Elon

 

[Viv1984]

Did the credit officially pass or is it just suspected to pass still?

 

[MrFusion]

Did the credit officially pass or is it just suspected to pass still?

Has not passed yet.

 

[OmbreCake]

and there will still be people who will delay their december pick up until after jan 1 to get even more of a savings

im sure tesla will come out with a statement that you will be set back to the "end of the line" if you delay

they will do anything.....and i mean anything.....to have you pick up right up until Q4 end

I expect such announcement as well. Tesla pulls out ALL stops for quarter end.

 

[Spuzzz]

more demand mean Tesla can raise the MSRP / Dealerships can add another $5k market adjustment.

Yes, I believe they will do this starting next year. The tax credit will ultimately go to tesla, not the consumer.

 

[Sing830]

would it make sense if one is scheduled to receive their car November / December this year to just take delivery. And order another one scheduled for next year. When the new one comes in trade the old one in for a profit. Then get the tax credit for the new one and keep that one.

I’m in the same situation. My order is already $4k up compare to now. Let say the law passed, how much is the impact? $4k which will offset the price increase? I only want to break even when I sell. I have to make decision this weekend T_T

 

[mrwug]

I’m in the same situation. My order is already $4k up compare to now. Let say the law passed, how much is the impact? $4k which will offset the price increase? I only want to break even when I sell. I have to make decision this weekend T_T

It really depends on what the bill does to used Tesla prices. While they might hold for a bit, if the new purchase price drops by 8K, it takes some mighty impatience to continue to pay that much more for a used vehicle. All these suppositions assume that used prices will hold but they likely will not.