Thank you - these are helpful thoughts. The difference here stems from my lack of faith in Tesla quality vs. say my wife's Lexus with similar miles. I've driven Toyota's mostly in my life and never really was worried about a part breaking bc of their quality record, at least in my own mind. It is not a money issue so much as "hedging my bets" against Tesla's quality record. I know forums are littered with "everyone's problems and complaints" and may not reflect the actual reality of the population of Tesla's. However, my heat pump failing in line with all the other Tesla heat pump failures (many articles on this problem) has given me cause for pause and to take note of other quality issues (like PCS failures).
I mean, it could happen, sure. With that being said, every extended warranty purchase ever, is always betting against "the house" (manufacturer) that you would have spent more repairing the product than you did on the extended warranty.
The manufacturer, that is, the entity that has all of the actuary data to make a data based decision on how much they will charge for said warranty, to ensure its a money making product for them in its entirety. For every "Doug DeMuro's Carmax Land Rover Warranty win" there are a large number of people who spent the money and just got to feel good about being protected against a large cost but didnt recoup what they spent.
Dont get me wrong, there IS value in feeling protected. I dont want to discount that. That also cant be quantified easily ("feeling good about it").
I mean, people (more than a couple) post here asking questions about "I want to PPF this leased Tesla", and from a financial perspective they might as well be lighting money on fire since they cant even buy the car at the end of the lease. They are paying to protect someone elses property, but if you point all this out, in the end, they want to feel good about the car they are driving, and the PPF makes them feel good about it.
This isnt that (PPFing a leased car), but a 3k spend for a 12 month period would be $250 a month, or less than most peoples new car payment. The PCS is a couple grand, so $200 a month, vs buying a new car which would be more than that. There is inherent cost in owning a vehicle as it gets older, this one or any other.
There are fewer things to break on model 3s than a typical ICE, but I havent seen anything to say they break less often. Its better to me to put aside the money yourself, because you "get it back" if you dont spend it but that doesnt quantify the "feel good" aspect, which is a thing, and I am not putting that down or poo pooing it.
I generally dont like to get into these type of discussions because so much of it is personal. Just like advice on "never lease a car!" or "Only pay cash for a car, if you cant pay cash you cant afford it!!!" totally discounts the "feel good" aspect that someone might feel when they stretch a bit to get a car that makes them feel good every day, this isnt that much different.
Everyones needs / desires are different on this. Like I said, I dont normally get into this type of thing online, because people who really like extended warranties and those who dont tend to go back and forth, and there isnt anything particularly wrong with either position. Hard to quantify how good having an extended warranty might make someone feel, and as I said repeatedly, nothing wrong with that.