Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[electracity]

The battery pack is probably the same thickness as a Model S despite longer cells (70 MM vs 65 MM in S/X)

They would want to make one pack for all cars, if they could. The S/X may get the new pack later after other needed changes are made to those cars.

A standard pack would explain why the model 3 is as big as it is. One pack is also supported by Musk saying that they have no model 2 planned.

The ideal is simplification in battery sub components within the Tesla Motors and Tesla energy lines.

Now here is the best part. In a different article Carlson runs the math and arrives at a 44 KWH capacity for the base Model S.

I think 50kwh would be a significant accomplishment in the M3.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

They would want to make one pack for all cars, if they could. The S/X may get the new pack later after other needed changes are made to those cars.

A standard pack would explain why the model 3 is as big as it is. One pack is also supported by Musk saying that they have no model 2 planned.

The ideal is simplification in battery sub components within the Tesla Motors and Tesla energy lines.

But Tesla also plans to make pick-ups and the S and X need to offer something extra to encourage people to part with the extra money. At least for now, Tesla will want to continue to increase the S and X as cell technology allows.

Battery packs are modular, so they'd simply want a design that easily allows for different battery sizes and different numbers of modules within the batteries.

 

[electracity]

Tesla is unlikely to make a new platform for a pickup. Also, going after the F150 is probably not the wise place to focus. A midsize highly configurable work truck on the M3 platform is probably where they are aiming.

If the M3 is going to have ludicrous, the S/X won't be differentiated by battery from the lower price car. Like the 7 series, the differentiator is probably interior. Also if the M3 base battery is 50kwh, the feature of greater range can't be used as a feature on the S/X (except artificially). The M3 will be the long range car in the lineup.

I'm sure Tesla expects the price of the 90D to fall to where the 60D is today. We are five or so years away from EV to matching ICE in price.

So my prediction is that the Tesla technology roadmap is one car battery type.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Tesla is unlikely to make a new platform for a pickup. Also, going after the F150 is probably not the wise place to focus. A midsize highly configurable work truck on the M3 platform is probably where they are aiming.

This is an extraordinary bad idea, unless you want to build a trucklette that will be the butt of country music jokes.

A pickup truck based on Model 3 would be a disaster. How many Subaru Bajas or even Ford Rangers are there compared to midsized pickups?

You want to win? You go after the best.

 

[electracity]

trucklette that will be the butt of country music jokes.

Would that not be a good thing?

The F150 buyer will not be an EV buyer for many years. The world is not an F150 buyer either. The trick is figuring out the markets where Tesla would aim a truck-like EV.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Would that not be a good thing?

Only if your goal is destroying your brand equity

The F150 buyer will not be an EV buyer for many years. The world is not an F150 buyer either. The trick is figuring out the markets where Tesla would aim a truck-like EV.

The same could have been said about the Roadster and Model S/X.

 

[Fallenone]

Panasonic is raising $3.9B to invest in the Gigafactory. Are total costs still projected to be $5B? Quite well done by Tesla then to have a minority stake in the investment yet capture the majority of the cost savings!

I remember Panasonic said (or re-confirmed) they will invest up to ~$1.8B in the GF. Is part of this $3.9B going into that, or they are adding more on top of it?

 

[electracity]

The same could have been said about the Roadster and Model S/X.

Most roadster and S/X owner are not driving to Trump rallies.

 

[AudubonB]

This discussion belongs elsewhere - as in the "Truck" thread - but I absolutely disagree with electracity and wholeheartedly, fervently agree with anticitizen 13.7 that Tesla would be in for a terrible, potentially company-threatening stumble were it to forego competing against the F-1/2/3/450 series trucks and introduce an "urban pickup" instead.

I think the Model X is as close to style iconoclasm as Tesla ever will (or even, "may") be able to get away with. Whatever the X is, it is not an SUV. If you're being charitable you can call it a CUV but, after nine months' exposure to it, I would call the X a people-carrier and that's about it. It is not worthy of having the letter "U" in its style name, in my opinion.

 

[electracity]

I think the Model X is as close to style iconoclasm as Tesla ever will (or even, "may") be able to get away with. Whatever the X is, it is not an SUV. If you're being charitable you can call it a CUV but, after nine months' exposure to it, I would call the X a people-carrier and that's about it. It is not worthy of having the letter "U" in its style name, in my opinion.

They want a vehicle they can manufacture on three continents. They want a vehicle they can manufacture in their first three to four plants. They want a vehicle not so big that it can't use gigafactory battery packs.

That isn't an F-150 direct competitor.

The El Camino Lives again!

 

[Model 3]

They want a vehicle they can manufacture in their first three to four plants.

A few years ago Elon talked about building the Pickup factory in Texas.

 

[esk8mw]

They want a vehicle they can manufacture on three continents. They want a vehicle they can manufacture in their first three to four plants. They want a vehicle not so big that it can't use gigafactory battery packs.

That isn't an F-150 direct competitor.

The El Camino Lives again!

Tesla is all about smashing EV stereotypes: small, short-range, slow, take forever to refuel, not sporty, can't tow, tiny/skinny tires, can't haul stuff, economy-level finishes, looks weird/futuristic, etc. The Roadster, S, X and 3 are basically the opposite of all those things in every way. Elon wants uncompromised vehicles that are better than ICE in every way possible.

I expect the truck to be the same way. You posted a great example of what an EV stereotype is above. I expect the Tesla truck to be the opposite. Massive towing/hauling capacity (meeting/exceeding competitors), air suspension allowing for aerodynamics/ease of loading and clearance, big wheels/tires, sizable bed, tech features including AP, a big (like 150 or 200 KW) battery and a very usable frunk.

 

[neroden]

I remember Panasonic said (or re-confirmed) they will invest up to ~$1.8B in the GF. Is part of this $3.9B going into that, or they are adding more on top of it?

It's not clear how much of the $3.9 billion is going to the Gigafactory. Part of it is, and they didn't mention any other use for the money. It certainly looks like most of it is going into the Gigafactory, so I think this is more than they were originally planning to put in.

 

[RubberToe]

Anyone have a link to the live stream of the Gigafactory party? Elon tweeted that it will be streamed.

RT

 

[larryep]

found this

 

[gigglehertz]

Bjorn Nyland is live streaming:

His streaming service cuts out and switches to a new stream, so check out either his main channel:

Bjørn Nyland

or his dedicated live channel:

Teslabjorn Live

 

[JRP3]

My comments in red.

Specifically, he makes a few bold predictions.

1. The battery is air cooled instead of liquid cooled, which is a great way to drop battery costs Highly unlikely
   
2. The battery pack is probably the same thickness as a Model S despite longer cells (70 MM vs 65 MM in S/X) 5mm, 2/10 of an inch
   
3. Most importantly, Li-ion cells once manufactured need to be 'aged' by very slowly charging & discharging them over a few days, using expensive equipment, which requires these cells to be stored at a production location. This is why cell manufacturing needs a large foot print and expensive. Randy's contention was this was short circuited by TSLA by building the packs first from cells and then 'aging' them in the battery packs

Where is there any savings from aging cells in a pack vs out of a pack? The time requirement will be the same. Worse, any cells that fail during aging will have to be pulled out out of a pack, which probably means a whole module gets pulled. Terrible idea.

Now I am not a battery expert by any stretch and this all sounded somewhat far fetched to me and I didn't give it much credence. Your initial instinct was correct.

This is only possible if the connectors are between cells rather than on top of cells, strongly hinting that the battery is air-cooled and not liquid cooled and validates Carlson's first hypothesis Not true at all, see above comments



This was again a Carlson prediction, that it was infact the packs being 'aged' as opposed to the cells. This closed the loop for me on why the pack costs could approach $100 / Kwh with the industry at more than twice the cost with prismatic cells. Again, see above comments

Now here is the best part. In a different article Carlson runs the math and arrives at a 44 KWH capacity for the base Model S. This seems reasonable given that an S60, a larger, heavier, and a higher Cd car can achieve 210 miles. It's not at all reasonable. 44 kWh with 10% buffer might provide 39 kWh usable, which would mean 185 Wh/mi. Model S is around 290 Wh/mi, (85kWh, 77kWh usable, 265 mile range). Expect a 50-55kWh pack for the base Model 3.

 

[JRP3]

They would want to make one pack for all cars, if they could.

The 3 is narrower and shorter than S/X, it can't fit those packs.

 

[tinm]

Finally. A link to the official Tesla upcoming live stream.

 

[electracity]

The 3 is narrower and shorter than S/X, it can't fit those packs.

I didn't say the S/X packs would be used in the model 3. I said the models S/X might be adapted to the new battery.

The measurements of the model S and the model 3 are suspiciously close. If Tesla found that the could reduce battery side impact protection on the model 3 by three inches, the cars could have the same width battery.

Similar power and size design, yet Tesla isn't going to make a standard battery pack?