Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[brandude87]

Panasonic Will Bet Big on Gigafactory - WSJ

I don't have a WSJ account, but here's basically the same article from MarketWatch: Panasonic ups ante in Tesla gigafactory investment. It's interesting that Mr. Tsuga said the GF will be built in 8 phases, given that all previously cited sources have indicated that it will be built in 7 phases.

 

[Rarity]

I noticed that too, but figure that it does not indicate a bigger factory, at least as far as footprint goes. Panasonic is probably just counting the "top" and "bottom" pieces as two instead of one.

As it stands, the factory seems to have a 50% increase in floor space that has not yet been announced.

 

[AudubonB]

Has anyone with longer memory or sharper search skills have a figure on what the initial or close-to-initial suggested $ numbers were for Panasonic's investment share? If you had grilled me for what the number was prior to this announcement, I would have said something that was close to $1.6bn, so isn't it the case that this release is confirming earlier expectations?

 

[austinEV]

Has anyone with longer memory or sharper search skills have a figure on what the initial or close-to-initial suggested $ numbers were for Panasonic's investment share? If you had grilled me for what the number was prior to this announcement, I would have said something that was close to $1.6bn, so isn't it the case that this release is confirming earlier expectations?

Totally fuzzy memory at work, but I think they never said or it was like 200M, and we all figured we just weren't privvy to the real details. That is my poor memory, zero research answer.

 

[cgiGuy]

I don't have a WSJ account, but ...

Something I learned from others on this forum is you can search for the title of a WSJ article on Google, and then click the WSJ link (from Google) and it will display the full article.

 

[hobbes]

Has anyone with longer memory or sharper search skills have a figure on what the initial or close-to-initial suggested $ numbers were for Panasonic's investment share? If you had grilled me for what the number was prior to this announcement, I would have said something that was close to $1.6bn, so isn't it the case that this release is confirming earlier expectations?

Found this: Panasonic, Tesla agree to partnership for US car battery plant- Nikkei Asian Review

The total investment is expected to reach up to $5 billion, and Panasonic's share could reach $1 billion.

 

[AudubonB]

Well done - thanks.

 

[Jack6591]

Panasonic Bets Big on Tesla

 

[Cosmacelf]

I thought this quote was interesting from Panasonic President, “We are sort of waiting on the demand from Tesla,”. And we are waiting on Powerwall shipments from Tesla!

 

[brandude87]

Something I learned from others on this forum is you can search for the title of a WSJ article on Google, and then click the WSJ link (from Google) and it will display the full article.

That works! Thanks for the tip!

 

[tftf]

Gigafactory myths, part 2.

A simple cap-ex comparison:

The battery subsidiary of German carmaker Daimler will begin construction of a new €500 million (US$544 million) lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility in the third quarter of this year. The factory will produce batteries for electric and hybrid Mercedes-Benz and smart cars, along with stationary storage products for commercial and residential customers.

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/det...-ion-battery-factory_100023484/#ixzz41m75Tr00
​

Cells are imported from Asia (Daimler is closing its cell production in Germany), this is purely for pack assembly - or rather an expansion thereof, Daimler is already doing pack assembly in a smaller plant at the same location.

An interesting comparison of this cap-ex number with Tesla-Panasonic: These two are investing less into a combined cell/pack facility until mid-2016 (the planned opening date of the pilot plant):

"In Q4 2015, Tesla reports an investment of $78
million, for a PTD investment of $310 million;
PENA reports an investment of $58 million for a
PTD investment of $64 million; or a combined
PTD investment of $374 through year-end 2015.

Source: http://bit.ly/1L0rxqd (PDF, PTD was until January 2016)

These are tiny cap-ex numbers compared to a full "planned" output of 35GWh in cells and 50GWh in packs in Nevada.

How can Tesla create the largest Li-Ion battery factory in the world with these modest numbers? It can't - Daimler's investment numbers for a mere pack assembly expansion are yet another proof.

Tesla is only building a pilot plant in Nevada so far (14% of the revised total size).

Since there is no activity on further outer shell / structural work in Nevada beyond the current size, an expansion is 2+ years away until more cells could roll off additional sections - even if Tesla started building additional Gigafactory "sections" tomorrow morning.

And out again.

 

[Johan]

Cool. Daimler is CapExing $554 million to expand from 20k square meters to 60k square meters. So roughly $14k per square meter of factory.

The GF is projected to be 10 million square feet which is 930k square meters. Someone else do the rest of the math please.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Gigafactory myths, part 2.

A simple cap-ex comparison:



Cells are imported from Asia (Daimler is closing its cell production in Germany), this is purely for pack assembly - or rather an expansion thereof, Daimler is already doing pack assembly in a smaller plant at the same location.

An interesting comparison of this cap-ex number with Tesla-Panasonic: These two are investing less into a combined cell/pack facility until mid-2016 (the planned opening date of the pilot plant):



Source: http://bit.ly/1L0rxqd (PDF, PTD was until January 2016)

These are tiny cap-ex numbers compared to a full "planned" output of 35GWh in cells and 50GWh in packs in Nevada.

How can Tesla create the largest Li-Ion battery factory in the world with these modest numbers? It can't - Daimler's investment numbers for a mere pack assembly expansion are yet another proof.

Tesla is only building a pilot plant in Nevada so far (14% of the revised total size).

Since there is no activity on further outer shell / structural work in Nevada beyond the current size, an expansion is 2+ years away until more cells could roll off additional sections - even if Tesla started building additional Gigafactory "sections" tomorrow morning.

And out again.

So in other words, if the ULA has to spend $300 million to build an Atlas rocket, and SpaceX claims to only spend a fraction of that, then it's not possible for SpaceX to do what they claim? Is that analogy about right?

 

[Krugerrand]

So in other words, if the ULA has to spend $300 million to build an Atlas rocket, and SpaceX claims to only spend a fraction of that, then it's not possible for SpaceX to do what they claim? Is that analogy about right?

Yep, that's what he said.

 

[techmaven]

Gigafactory myths, part 2.

A simple cap-ex comparison:

Cells are imported from Asia (Daimler is closing its cell production in Germany), this is purely for pack assembly - or rather an expansion thereof, Daimler is already doing pack assembly in a smaller plant at the same location.

An interesting comparison of this cap-ex number with Tesla-Panasonic: These two are investing less into a combined cell/pack facility until mid-2016 (the planned opening date of the pilot plant):



Source: http://bit.ly/1L0rxqd (PDF, PTD was until January 2016)

These are tiny cap-ex numbers compared to a full "planned" output of 35GWh in cells and 50GWh in packs in Nevada.

How can Tesla create the largest Li-Ion battery factory in the world with these modest numbers? It can't - Daimler's investment numbers for a mere pack assembly expansion are yet another proof.

Tesla is only building a pilot plant in Nevada so far (14% of the revised total size).

Since there is no activity on further outer shell / structural work in Nevada beyond the current size, an expansion is 2+ years away until more cells could roll off additional sections - even if Tesla started building additional Gigafactory "sections" tomorrow morning.

And out again.

Let's see...

The original phase of the Panasonic Suminoe plant in Osaka, Japan, was expected to cost about 100 billion yen for two stages, in 2010 yen. That's $880 million, or $956 million in today's dollars. That's for about 8 GWh of production, or slightly bigger than the pilot phase of the Gigafactory. That's for cell production mind you and the plant is in Osaka, Japan, not known to be a cheap place.

Panasonic Scraps Battery Plant Expansion - WSJ

Panasonic has subsequently expanded Suminoe since Tesla signed a new cell supply agreement in late 2013. Using the Suminoe plant as a template, for which it actually really is a template in many ways, at $956 million per 8 GWh, that's $4.2 billion for 35 GWh. Even if we move to 7 GWh for $1 billion, we're still talking $5 billion, or right in line with estimates.

GM's Brownstown battery assembly plant is 160,000 square feet and costs $43 million ($48 million in 2016 dollars) to turn the warehouse into a final stage battery assembly plant:

Inside GMs New Battery Plant

So all you've really proven is that Daimler can get ripped off.

Again, at 14% of a the full Gigafactory + Suminoe plant output > 2x all of LG Chem's output in 2018 for all automobile manufacturers. It's also bigger than LG Chem + Samsung SDI + SK Innovation combined output in 2018.

The next phase, if started this year, would take until end of 2018 to come online. There is nothing that says they can only start one phase every year. They can start additional phases in a 9 month stretch and easily make a full Gigafactory by the end of 2020.

 

[The Blue Owl]

So in other words, if the ULA has to spend $300 million to build an Atlas rocket, and SpaceX claims to only spend a fraction of that, then it's not possible for SpaceX to do what they claim? Is that analogy about right?

But you don't understand, you see, it takes years to design and build a reliable rocket, and Lockheed and Boeing have billions invested in existing production capacity and they spend billions on R&D. By the time Tesla, er, I mean SpaceX will launch their first rocket that doesn't explode, UAL will have even more advanced technology, since they'd be idiots to sit still.

And this reusable rocket fantasy is just Elon Musk selling fairy tales to unsophisticated investors like you and me, who don't understand that it takes years to build the technology base for space.

SpaceX will never put a dent in the launch business. Mainly because it takes years and billions of dollars to do. Rockets are not iPhones.

It takes years​.

I'm out for good.

 

[JRP3]

And out again.

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[Electroman]

Rhino: rolling on the floor here -

 

[ggr]

Mod-deleted

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[AudubonB]

Mod note:​ Stop making work for moderators, those of you with itchy keyboard fingers.