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Interesting ... no doubt that China is a rising power and committed to electric vehicles in a big way.
3 electric cars you’ve never heard of that dominated the market in China this year

China has not only become the biggest automotive market in the world, but also the biggest electric car market in the world. In 2016 alone, the country more than doubled its fleet of electric vehicles to now over 600,000 cars – more than the US or all European countries combined.
Yet, you probably haven’t heard much about the electric cars sold in volumes in China.

Just a short note on wind turbines, the company I recall was in New England somewhere. Anyway, back to things at least tangentially related to the GigaFactory.

The Chinese have the capability to make high quality li-ion cells and they do make them under the umbrella of other companies, but outside of that sphere, China's li-ion battery manufacturing is very poor quality and most cells will have a poor lifespan. To make li-ion cells right requires final assembly be done in vacuum chambers by machine, but the cheap Chinese cells are manufactured by hand in environments that are not dust free.

China may be putting a lot of EVs on the road, but how many have good quality batteries and what kind of cell degradation are they seeing? China's internal car market is the fastest growing in the world and just about anything will sell. In developed countries buyers are a lot more picky because the bar is set pretty high. To get and maintain market share, quality became a big selling point. Toyota is consistently the largest or one of the top three car builders and sellers in the world in large part because they have a reputation for high quality. There are still Camrys and Toyota pickups from the 80s on the roads of the world.

A lot of those home grown Chinese cars are going to die a premature death, including the EVs. Some Chinese made cars are good quality and will last, but few are going to be sold outside China and those that are will likely be sold in developing countries where consumers aren't as picky. Only when they figure out how to compete with the top car makers in the world on quality will they introduce in volume to developed countries. In the meantime they have the perfect laboratory to develop their cars in a market that will buy just about anything.

I don't recall if it was in this thread or another one, but somebody on this forum was saying he worked in the Middle East in the 80s and there was a new car brand there from South Korea called Hyundai. A lot of the westerners bought them because they were cheap and they figured if the wheels fell off at 20,000 miles, so what they weren't going to drive it forever. They were better quality than expected, but it will still another 15 years before Hyundai was selling in the US and they had to offer very long warranties because their quality still wasn't up to the best, but they have improved to a point they are competitive with most developed world brands.

I would expect the Chinese survivors to eventually do the same thing, though the timeline may be a bit longer. Chinese culture is not as quality obsessed as South Korea (which was influenced by Japan) and the Chinese home market is big enough they can afford to build primarily for the home market longer than Hyundai could.
 
Just a short note on wind turbines, the company I recall was in New England somewhere. Anyway, back to things at least tangentially related to the GigaFactory.

The Chinese have the capability to make high quality li-ion cells and they do make them under the umbrella of other companies, but outside of that sphere, China's li-ion battery manufacturing is very poor quality and most cells will have a poor lifespan. To make li-ion cells right requires final assembly be done in vacuum chambers by machine, but the cheap Chinese cells are manufactured by hand in environments that are not dust free.

China may be putting a lot of EVs on the road, but how many have good quality batteries and what kind of cell degradation are they seeing? China's internal car market is the fastest growing in the world and just about anything will sell. In developed countries buyers are a lot more picky because the bar is set pretty high. To get and maintain market share, quality became a big selling point. Toyota is consistently the largest or one of the top three car builders and sellers in the world in large part because they have a reputation for high quality. There are still Camrys and Toyota pickups from the 80s on the roads of the world.

A lot of those home grown Chinese cars are going to die a premature death, including the EVs. Some Chinese made cars are good quality and will last, but few are going to be sold outside China and those that are will likely be sold in developing countries where consumers aren't as picky. Only when they figure out how to compete with the top car makers in the world on quality will they introduce in volume to developed countries. In the meantime they have the perfect laboratory to develop their cars in a market that will buy just about anything.

I don't recall if it was in this thread or another one, but somebody on this forum was saying he worked in the Middle East in the 80s and there was a new car brand there from South Korea called Hyundai. A lot of the westerners bought them because they were cheap and they figured if the wheels fell off at 20,000 miles, so what they weren't going to drive it forever. They were better quality than expected, but it will still another 15 years before Hyundai was selling in the US and they had to offer very long warranties because their quality still wasn't up to the best, but they have improved to a point they are competitive with most developed world brands.

I would expect the Chinese survivors to eventually do the same thing, though the timeline may be a bit longer. Chinese culture is not as quality obsessed as South Korea (which was influenced by Japan) and the Chinese home market is big enough they can afford to build primarily for the home market longer than Hyundai could.
My brother in law works for a company in Silicon Valley which designs battery packs for cars and motorcycles. He regularly travels to China where they are expanding a battery factory that will soon be larger than the Gigafactory. He is intimately involved in QA and states the quality of the batteries they get from this factory is as good as Panasonic, LG, etc.
China can and does make high quality batteries (and a lot of other stuff). I don't believe in a cultural trait of "quality". Japan made a lot of poor quality stuff just after the war but quickly gained a reputation for high quality. China will follow the same path.
 
My brother in law works for a company in Silicon Valley which designs battery packs for cars and motorcycles. He regularly travels to China where they are expanding a battery factory that will soon be larger than the Gigafactory. He is intimately involved in QA and states the quality of the batteries they get from this factory is as good as Panasonic, LG, etc.
China can and does make high quality batteries (and a lot of other stuff). I don't believe in a cultural trait of "quality". Japan made a lot of poor quality stuff just after the war but quickly gained a reputation for high quality. China will follow the same path.
I think you are dead-on right. "Made in China" has been an indication of poor quality, just as "Made in Japan" was a label for cheap stuff. The brain power of engineers from both countries can go back hundreds of years to when they were powerful. [words not quite coming out right]. But what I'm trying to clumsily say - don't rule out quality coming from China. They may currently make a few bad things, but they have a history of being the most advanced civilization on earth. Don't underestimate them as competitors. Better to make them partners.
 
My brother in law works for a company in Silicon Valley which designs battery packs for cars and motorcycles. He regularly travels to China where they are expanding a battery factory that will soon be larger than the Gigafactory. He is intimately involved in QA and states the quality of the batteries they get from this factory is as good as Panasonic, LG, etc.
China can and does make high quality batteries (and a lot of other stuff). I don't believe in a cultural trait of "quality". Japan made a lot of poor quality stuff just after the war but quickly gained a reputation for high quality. China will follow the same path.

I grew up in Monterey Park which had a large Japanese population when I was born and then we got a flood of Taiwanese ex-pats in the late 70s. When I moved away in the 80s the city was over 60% Asian.

In the 90s I was sent to Singapore on business and passed through Japan going both ways. Singapore also has a large Chinese population.

Both growing up and when traveling I noted differences in Japanese and Chinese culture. Japan did turn out a lot of junk after WWII, but they were learning how to make consumer goods. They started industrializing in the mid-1800s and probably hold the record for evolving from a Medieval society to a modern power. But until the end of WW II, most of their industry was focused on military and practical goods.

In my experience Japanese culture is self reinforced. Everyone is expected to behave a certain way and people are only let off leash at certain times. Getting drunk with your office mates is one of those times and Japanese businessmen are renown for their booze ups.

That was also a tradition in the Japanese military too. At officer parties they would try to drink one another under the table.

But the rest of the time people are supposed to be disciplined and do the honorable thing. There will always be people who cut corners and break the rules, but it is not as culturally tolerated in Japanese culture as it is in many others. That contributed to Japan's rather quick advance from a defeated nation to a world power. They had a bit of a leg up over other Asian nations as they were the only industrialized nation in Asia before the war and they were able to apply that to retooling after the war.

Materials were also very hard to come by after the war. A lot of industries had to make do with what they could get which were 2nd rate materials until at least the 60s. It took until the oil crisis of the mid-70s before most Americans noticed Japanese imports, but some Americans did become aware of them and learned to appreciate them in the late 60s.

My experience of Chinese culture is it doesn't have the same internal self discipline the Japanese have. There is sort of an impishness in the culture that people who get one over on others are kind of heroes.

I noticed it in the shops. Japanese owned shops in my home town were spic and span clean and tidy. Everything had it's place and anything that got in the wrong place was quickly put back. Chinese owned shops were kind of like a jumble sale. They often kind of tumbled out onto the sidewalk with goods out on the street in front of the shop. I noticed that same characteristic about shops in Singapore too. Especially at the shopping mall where the locals went. I had a friend who I knew from online (I later learned his father was well connected with the government) who took me around and showed me the Singapore the tourists don't usually see. At the mall where the locals shopped, I was not only the only white person there, but also the tallest. I got a lot of stares.

Singapore is very orderly because the government orders it, but they have stricter laws to keep things in order. The chewing gum ban is a famous one, but there are others too. I would talk with the cab drivers when I was there and when waiting for a traffic light someone was caught at a red light camera (there was a flash as the picture was taken). I mentioned that those cameras were controversial back in Washington State and he couldn't comprehend how traffic could work without them.

When the animals in the US were getting poisoned by melamine in animal food we had a discussion about it on another forum I'm on. A woman who grew up in mainland China but now lives in Switzerland was saying it was just accepted that you didn't know what was in your toothpaste and people died brushing their teeth. That sort of daily Russian roulette with common everyday products was just accepted as normal.

The guy I work for is both the technical lead on my project as well as doing most of the sales and tech support. (He's horribly overworked.) He goes to China a couple of times a year to do sales and training. His assessment of China is similar to mine. China is capable of very high quality at comparable prices to the rest of the world (give or take a little), but they are also capable of turning out utter junk and you have to be careful and make sure you are getting the quality goods. They will deliver if you're watching, or you're dealing with a company that has a long reputation for quality, but otherwise you could end up with junk.

As time goes on, there are more Chinese companies that realize a good reputation is golden and try to foster that. But the underlying culture is working against them. China is improving in quality, and they are still growing at a fairly fast rate (though it has slowed down and there is some smoke and mirrors like empty cities built to boost the numbers).

I expect that the cells your brother gets from China are probably only a little bit cheaper than those from other countries, if at all. If you shop around you can find very cheap Chinese li-ion batteries, and they probably won't last very long. To make li-ion batteries correctly, you can't cut corners and the process costs what it costs. It's a very capital intensive process that doesn't all that many workers. The machines are expensive and the process from raw materials to finished cell takes a while.

I wouldn't be surprised if Elon didn't look at what it would cost to build a GigaFactory in China and import all the batteries, but because it's the equipment, not the workers, distance to the final assembly plant (Fremont), vertical integration of the process in one place, and access to raw materials are the biggest factors. The American workers are paid more, but it makes little difference in the end.
 
wdolson has nailed it. The only thing to add here is that the Chinese govt is mandating the production so they will protect the companies increasing the risks. Why LG and Samsung are building battery facilities in China is beyond me. Really dont' get that, I'd build them in Thailand or Vietnam. Anyhow, the last point here is that the legal protections that the US and Japan afford are absent in China. Battery blow due to fraud somewhere, good luck to you, with Tesla you have legal recourse.

And let me tell you those batteries are going to kill people. Just a matter of time.
 
Interesting reading ... Electrek green energy brief: 10 Gigafactories to replace US auto fleet, Smart meters need get smarter, 74¢/W for 1.17GW, more

Some rough math folks – if the USA needs 1.275M GWh/year to cover our vehicle mileage with electricity, we ought first divide that by 52 weeks since that is how often a car will need refill if it has a 300 mile range, then we’ll divide the total number by 15 years since that is how long I hear experts say the American vehicle fleet will replace itself in – and we’ll be left with about 1,600GWh/year needed to hit the streets. That’s 11’ish Gigafactories if Nevada scales to 150GWh/year. One variable is how long those batteries will last – 500,000 miles? Oh, and then there’s the rest of the world.

upload_2017-3-6_7-31-26.png
 
Interesting reading ... Electrek green energy brief: 10 Gigafactories to replace US auto fleet, Smart meters need get smarter, 74¢/W for 1.17GW, more

Some rough math folks – if the USA needs 1.275M GWh/year to cover our vehicle mileage with electricity, we ought first divide that by 52 weeks since that is how often a car will need refill if it has a 300 mile range, then we’ll divide the total number by 15 years since that is how long I hear experts say the American vehicle fleet will replace itself in – and we’ll be left with about 1,600GWh/year needed to hit the streets. That’s 11’ish Gigafactories if Nevada scales to 150GWh/year. One variable is how long those batteries will last – 500,000 miles? Oh, and then there’s the rest of the world.

View attachment 217466
There's something fundamentally wrong with that chart. It shows NO capacity for either Tesla or Panasonic in 2016. And yet, somehow, Tesla shipped 80,000 300km capable cars in 2016, which should account for 6 filled in dots, somewhere. Oh, I just saw the (**) footnote... Panasonic's Japanese production is not included in the chart. Why not?
 
There is a book titled "1434- the year a magnificent Chinese fleet sailed into Italy and ignited the renaissance". In that book, there is a considerable explanation of the winds of China - how the monsoons were influenced by the mountain cooling and plain heating to dictate the sailing calendars. The winds of China have been studied and documented for over 500 years and so modern wind farms will rest on a well studied pattern.
As an American engineer, I hate to admit that the Chinese engineers may be so far advanced over our skills. If THEY build a wind farm, they might well succeed.

Thanks for that, I read his first book (1421 the year china discovered america). Still 450 years behind my great uncle Eric the Red, but a certainly more impressive fleet then the vikings ever built.
 
There's something fundamentally wrong with that chart. It shows NO capacity for either Tesla or Panasonic in 2016. And yet, somehow, Tesla shipped 80,000 300km capable cars in 2016, which should account for 6 filled in dots, somewhere. Oh, I just saw the (**) footnote... Panasonic's Japanese production is not included in the chart. Why not?
Bias?
 
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From reading critiques of both books they seem to be unlikely premises built on tenuous data at best.
We've known Leif landed in America 500 years before Columbus, but it is still not taught or acknowledged. The Chinese history is acknowledged in Chinese history and the documentation in 1421 is very compelling. I think anthropologists are way out in front of historians anymore anyhow, with history as much about political commentary as a retelling.

Anyhow, I'm sure this belongs in a different thread (website/bar...)
 
The point is that Chinese, Japanese , American, ancient or modern...all societies have the ability to produce great things. We cannot say - broad brush - that "those guys" can only produce junk. There are some individuals that will cut corners, sell fraud...but it is foolish to assume everyone in a culture is inept, corrupt and worthy of being dismissed.
 
From reading critiques of both books they seem to be unlikely premises built on tenuous data at best.
As I read 1421 and 1434 - I was persuaded that the Author had put in many, many references. The critiques said the author had no proof and was being a heretic for suggesting a European model (that we were all taught) was not accurate. I say that the critiques are sour grapes, and missing the point that the Chinese were a very advanced society. To dismiss them in todays terms - that they can't build a battery or wind farm - does not jibe with "facts", but does jibe with a NIH attitude.
 
Unfortunately, small wind turbines are not very efficient so cost/watt is high. You need really big turbines to get high efficiency.
How do the numbers work then? If you build a turbine twice as tall, it will have 2x as much surface area with the wind. But it will also WEIGH 8x as much unless you manage to do precision engineering to limit wall thicknesses and the like.
At higher elevation from the surface, the wind is typically stronger, though.

I think decentralized (as close to end user as possible) wind power generation is the only way. On big turbine takes wind from its neighbor, a big wind park is bound to be costing you efficiency. Vertical turbines should be part of building design. Imagine a skyscraper with each corner a turbine sttructure, all its length. Especially if the building is designed to harness wind power, direct air along its turbines. Barely visible to the eye even when stnding right next too it on the sidewalk. Simple bearing assembly. Underground generator.
 
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Please read the article that was quoted a couple of posts ago in this thread on how the small scale turbines simply do not work economically in most situations. That blog was an excellent read and an eye opener. I am paraphrasing what I am learnt from that article.

To start with, if you increase the turbine size/length by twice you get much more than 2 times surface area, more like closer to 4 times. Also the most important factor is wind speed, and your energy increase square of wind speed. And wind speed increases linearly by height.

So essentially a large turbine with more than twice the size and situated at more than 3 times the height of a small one, has the potential to generate 8 times as energy or more. Your main killer here is the low wind speeds at less than 100 feet, and increases substantially as you go higher.

Windmills have a lot of moving parts which constantly requires maintenance. So you power generation should take into account that aspect also.
 
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