Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[Lump]

Summing It All Up (In 1 Sad Cartoon) | Zero Hedge

 

[doggusfluffy]

Is anyone else considering shorting some other auto makers...in advance of a widened emissions probe? I liked the idea, know idea where to start. :wink:

 

[pz1975]

I looked to buy VW puts on Friday but couldn't figure out how to! Missed the boat. They are listed on teh NASDAQ as an OTC for some reason and I couldn't buy puts (and I'm not allowed to short in my account). I wish I had had access to the German market - would have made a killing.

I'd also like to buy BMW puts but again it seems like they aren't listed in the US.

 

[austinEV]

Is anyone else considering shorting some other auto makers...in advance of a widened emissions probe? I liked the idea, know idea where to start. :wink:

It seems there is an auto ETF ("CARZ") that you could short. It is a little sloppy, and is 5% Tesla. It looks like it doesn't include BMW/VW.

 

[Auzie]

Reuters: Volkswagen could pose bigger threat to German economy than Greek crisis

Highlights:

VW is the biggest German car maker and one of the biggest employers

If VW sales plunge, that would have a negative impact on the German economy

The broader concern is the contagion effect on other German car makers, especially the damage to 'Made in Germany' brand

The auto industry is the pillar of the German economy

The German economy is the pillar of the European economy

I will not be surprised if we start seeing the unravelling of shady emission testing practices in other countries and with other car makers. If all players are found to be equally guilty and dirty, that might level the playing field for VW and dilute the downside risk for VW but increase the risk for the whole industry.

If that happens, and I find it likely, consumers may continue to make similar brand choices as before the scandal. Alternatively, they might increasingly opt out of the ice industry and enter the Tesla world.

Such scenario has both upside and downside for Tesla. The upside is that the drivers might flock more to Tesla and the downside is the damage to the mature businesses and to the economies that are heavily dependent on these businesses.

 

[sundaymorning]

Seems like no one here wants to talk about the U.S. 2nd quarter GDP beat. Numbers came in at 3.9% vs 3.7% estimates. As long as oil prices remain low, the U.S will benefit... China BS is way overblown.

GDP estimate revised upward, beats forecast

 

[MitchJi]

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[dmunjal]

Seems like no one here wants to talk about the U.S. 2nd quarter GDP beat. Numbers came in at 3.9% vs 3.7% estimates. As long as oil prices remain low, the U.S will benefit... China BS is way overblown.

GDP estimate revised upward, beats forecast

Maybe because it looks like the exception. Q3 GDP is predicted to be 1.2%.

 

[FluxCap]

FYI, I just took profits on my IBB and SPY puts today. I don't think this market rout is over, but I'm stepping back a bit on hyper defensive positioning.

 

[FluxCap]

FYI, I just took profits on my IBB and SPY puts today. I don't think this market rout is over, but I'm stepping back a bit on hyper defensive positioning.

Aaand I'm super defensive again. Global carnage continues, Nikkei getting destroyed and Shanghai Composite looks to be as well. DAX tanking on VW mess. US tanking on biotechs and over-leveraged crowded energy stocks (coal, oil and more -- see Glencore). This feels kind of bigger than I think people realize, and I don't think it will be over fast. Sovereign wealth funds have yet to start selling things, but if and when they do, they will leave scorched earth in their wake. "Qatar Holdings is revealed to have lost about $4.8 bn from its VW common shares as a result of its 17% share of VW common stock and 13% of its preferred stock:" Volkswagen & DAX: Allocation & Dislocation

TSLA is in for a rocky ride as the market recalibrates, I think. Could see a nice pop with X reveal festivities, but it's a crappy market to be dropping PR into right now from a stock standpoint. I feel better about our odds medium to long term than short term right now.

Oh, brother. Uncle Carl Icahn is out with a doom and gloom video, as if he wasn't pumping stocks as early as one month ago. Whether you agree or not, people pay attention to him:

Carl Icahn

 

[sundaymorning]

China's consumer sentiment highest since May 2014. Nekkei up 300 plus points.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/29/china-consumer-sentiment-at-16-month-high-as-households-ignore-stock-slump.html

 

[ev-enthusiast]

China's consumer sentiment highest since May 2014. Nekkei up 300 plus points.

China-PMI (Purchase Manager Index) stabilizing during September at 49,8 points after 49,7 points during August.
A PMI value of 50 points would be neutral, a bigger value indicates expansion.

European PMIs will be out later today, will be important to see if countries like Italy and Spain are able to continue to recover.

 

[Auzie]

Seems like no one here wants to talk about the U.S. 2nd quarter GDP beat. Numbers came in at 3.9% vs 3.7% estimates. As long as oil prices remain low, the U.S will benefit... China BS is way overblown.

GDP estimate revised upward, beats forecast

One way to reduce exposure to underperforming world economies is to invest in businesses that derive its revenue from the parts of the world with performing economies. That would be US and few countries in Europe

Amazon is one such company, no wonder its stock is doing well.

It is venturing to India and China lately, but that may be painful whilst economic conditions in these countries are not favourable.

 

[FluxCap]

Thanks for the post, Auzie. I agree that AMZN has been a great place to park money for the past year.

Here's some really great macro reading for you guys, in case anyone has free time:

Naufal Sanaullah: Why we won't see US QE again for a while

Say you're Fed Chair Yellen today. You face a truly a Dickensian tale of two economies. The unemployment rate is at target while inflation is far from it. Labor market internals suggest possible shadow slack potential while inflation internals imply upward pressures. Goods markets are flagging with global weakness while services are surging on the back of domestic acceleration. And there's an equally analogous duality in policy prescriptions given these confusing signals, with the likes of Vice Chair Stanley Fischer proposing liftoff and Bridgewater CIO Ray Dalio urging for patience.

How to Fix This | The 10th Man Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

What People Are Saying

Pretty much every hedge fund guy I talk to is 100% bearish, this is the end of the world, etc. These are the guys responsible for the five-figure orders in HYG puts.
I would say the real money crowd is a little more sanguine. They are looking for value here.
The hedge fund guys are supposedly the smart money, but they tend to move as a pack. And they all tend to be wrong at the same time.
It’s getting ugly, but this isn’t the financial crisis and it’s not the dot-com bust. Stocks were overvalued, but not egregiously. Carl Icahn said there was a bubble in high yield, but there’s historical precedent for spreads to be this tight—they were tight throughout the duration of the Great Depression.
Biotech has sold off almost 30%, and big-cap biotech is trading with single-digit P/Es. Things can get worse—that’s what markets do—but this isn’t the end of the world.
I think the bigger danger is not how far the market goes down but how long it stays down. It will take a long time to reclaim the highs.
This is no-man’s land. If you’re thinking of selling here, you’re probably too late. If you’re thinking of buying, it’s probably too early.
I realize this is probably no help. Trust me, if I had conviction here, I would let you know.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

New data on Employment Situation out later today.

 

[Auzie]

Thanks for the post, Auzie. I agree that AMZN has been a great place to park money for the past year.

Here's some really great macro reading for you guys, in case anyone has free time:

Naufal Sanaullah: Why we won't see US QE again for a while



How to Fix This | The 10th Man Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

Thanks, Flux.

It might be an idea to check what the treasury yield curve is saying. To clarify, the yield curve is my crystal ball

In the chart above, I selected the year 2007 as a comparison to today's yield curve. In 2007, we had an inverted curve, foretelling the coming crash.

2015 curve looks healthy in comparison.

 

[Larken]

Something to keep in mind is that the markets have rallied the past 2 weeks whereas TSLA has been moving down in the same time period. The market will probably take a breather sooner or later and have a pullback/consolidation. Will this then drag TSLA down further with it? Don't mean to be negative or a spreader of FUD, just a reminder that TSLA, like every other stock, is subject to the movements of macro environments.

 

[EldestOyster]

It's a definite maybe , but we could just as easily meet it on the way up as it's coming down. There might be news worth 50 points, and the stock only goes up 30.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Growth rate (GDP) in China was officially reported at 6.9% during Q3 2015 YoY.
This is the slowest growth rate in China since the global financial crisis in 2009.
Some economists feared an even bigger decline because some weak figures had been announced already during the last weeks.

Some economists said the growth rate could pick up during Q4 cause the Chinese government decided on a stimulus package that could show positive results later this year.

Looks like it's getting more and more difficult for China to hit their growth rate target of 7% for the entire year 2015 (GDP for 2014 was 7.4%).

BTW China will discuss their new 5-year-plan beginning of next week.
These talks are expected to take a couple of weeks.
I would expect some jitter during the switch to the next 5-year plan.

 

[FluxCap]

VRX

If I had held my puts, I would probably be retired today.